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Novelty-focused weak signal detection in futuristic data: Assessing the rarity and paradigm unrelatedness of signals

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  • Kim, Jieun
  • Lee, Changyong

Abstract

Previous attempts to scan weak signals from quantitative data focus on earliness, but neglect the novel nature of signals. This study proposes an approach to novelty-focused weak signal detection from online futuristic data. For this, first, text mining is applied to extract signals in the form of keywords from futuristic data. Second, a local outlier factor is utilized to assess the rarity and paradigm unrelatedness of signals. The futuristic data is considered a source of weak signals and patent data is utilized as a proxy for existing paradigms of technological innovation. Finally, signal-portfolio maps are developed to identify the patterns of signal representations. The proposed approach helps broaden the source of weak signals and improve the sensitivity to the detection of weak signals. A case study on augmented reality technology is presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Jieun & Lee, Changyong, 2017. "Novelty-focused weak signal detection in futuristic data: Assessing the rarity and paradigm unrelatedness of signals," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 59-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:120:y:2017:i:c:p:59-76
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.04.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Keller, Jonas & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "The influence of information and communication technology (ICT) on future foresight processes — Results from a Delphi survey," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 81-92.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lijie Feng & Yuxiang Niu & Zhenfeng Liu & Jinfeng Wang & Ke Zhang, 2019. "Discovering Technology Opportunity by Keyword-Based Patent Analysis: A Hybrid Approach of Morphology Analysis and USIT," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-35, December.
    2. Inchae Park & Byungun Yoon, 2018. "Identifying Promising Research Frontiers of Pattern Recognition through Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-32, November.
    3. Lee, Changyong & Jeon, Daeseong & Ahn, Joon Mo & Kwon, Ohjin, 2020. "Navigating a product landscape for technology opportunity analysis: A word2vec approach using an integrated patent-product database," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 96.
    4. Samira Ranaei & Arho Suominen & Alan Porter & Stephen Carley, 2020. "Evaluating technological emergence using text analytics: two case technologies and three approaches," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 122(1), pages 215-247, January.
    5. Jeon, Daeseong & Lee, Junyoup & Ahn, Joon Mo & Lee, Changyong, 2023. "Measuring the novelty of scientific publications: A fastText and local outlier factor approach," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4).
    6. Jeon, Daeseong & Ahn, Joon Mo & Kim, Juram & Lee, Changyong, 2022. "A doc2vec and local outlier factor approach to measuring the novelty of patents," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    7. Changyong Lee & Gyumin Lee, 2019. "Technology opportunity analysis based on recombinant search: patent landscape analysis for idea generation," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 121(2), pages 603-632, November.
    8. Lee, Gyumin & Lee, Sungjun & Lee, Changyong, 2023. "Inventor–licensee matchmaking for university technology licensing: A fastText approach," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

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