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Clash of Civilizations, or Realism and Liberalism Déjà Vu? Some Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Bruce M. Russett

    (Department of Political Science, Yale University)

  • John R. Oneal

    (Department of Political Science, University of Alabama at Tuscaloosa)

  • Michaelene Cox

    (Department of Political Science, University of Alabama at Tuscaloosa)

Abstract

We assess the degree to which propositions from Samuel Huntington's The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order can account for the incidence of militarized interstate disputes between countries during the period 1950-92. We find that such traditional realist influences as contiguity, alliances, and relative power, and liberal influences of joint democracy and interdependence, provide a much better account of interstate conflict. Pairs of states split across civilizational boundaries are no more likely to become engaged in disputes than are other states ceteris paribus. Even disputes between the West and the rest of the world, or with Islam, were no more common than those between or within most other groups. Among Huntington's eight civilizations, interstate conflict was significantly less likely only within the West; dyads in other civilizations were as likely to fight as were states split across civilizations, when realist and liberal influences are held constant. The dominance of a civilization by a core state, democratic or not, does little to inhibit violence within the civilization. Contrary to the thesis that the clash of civilizations will replace Cold War rivalries as the greatest source of conflict, militarized interstate disputes across civilizational boundaries became less common, not more so, as the Cold War waned. Nor do civilizations appear to have an important indirect influence on interstate conflict through the realist or liberal variables. They help to predict alliance patterns but make little contribution to explaining political institutions or commercial interactions. We can be grateful that Huntington challenged us to consider the role that civilizations might play in international relations, but there is little evidence that they define the fault lines along which international conflict is apt to occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce M. Russett & John R. Oneal & Michaelene Cox, 2000. "Clash of Civilizations, or Realism and Liberalism Déjà Vu? Some Evidence," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 37(5), pages 583-608, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:37:y:2000:i:5:p:583-608
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    Cited by:

    1. Jong-Wha Lee & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2016. "Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 327-344, February.
    2. Thomas R. Guarrieri, 2018. "Guilty as perceived: How opinions about states influence opinions about NGOs," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 573-593, December.
    3. Christiane Fröhlich & Pinar Bilgin, 2017. "Resisting Post-truth Politics, a Primer: Or, How Not to Think about Human Mobility and the Global Environment," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 8, pages 55-59, February.
    4. Eric Neumayer & Thomas Plümper, 2016. "Spatial spill-overs from terrorism on tourism: Western victims in Islamic destination countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 195-206, December.
    5. repec:bla:glopol:v:8:y:2017:i:s1:p:55-59 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gokmen, Gunes, 2017. "Clash of civilizations and the impact of cultural differences on trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 449-458.
    7. Buscema, Massimo & Ferilli, Guido & Sacco, Pier Luigi, 2017. "What kind of ‘world order’? An artificial neural networks approach to intensive data mining," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 46-56.

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