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Effectiveness of low-carbon development strategies: Evaluation of policy scenarios for the urban transport sector in a Brazilian megacity

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  • Menezes, Esther
  • Maia, Alexandre Gori
  • de Carvalho, Cristiane Silva

Abstract

This paper evaluates low-carbon urban development strategies for the transport sector in São Paulo, one of the largest cities in the world. For each mobility policy selected, we build scenarios to evaluate the potential of mitigating GHG emissions, shedding light on institutional aspects, benefits and risks of implementing each measure. Selected policies analyzed in this paper focus on: (i) reduction of frequency and distance of motorized trips; (ii) improvement of public transport; and (ii) technological issues, from improvement of fuel efficiency of all transport modes to replacement of fossil fuels by biofuels. Results show that the measures that present the highest potential to reduce GHG emissions are those that promote the use of biofuels, particularly ethanol, followed by those that favor the use of public transport. Moreover, simulations of integrated policies evidence that their effectiveness depends upon the adoption of coordinated policies at Federal, State and Local levels. Lastly, we highlight the complementary nature of the proposed policies and the contribution of scenario building to the debate on the strategic planning of integrated urban public policies to promote sustainable development in São Paulo City.

Suggested Citation

  • Menezes, Esther & Maia, Alexandre Gori & de Carvalho, Cristiane Silva, 2017. "Effectiveness of low-carbon development strategies: Evaluation of policy scenarios for the urban transport sector in a Brazilian megacity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 226-241.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:114:y:2017:i:c:p:226-241
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.016
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    3. Shankar, Ravi & Pathak, Devendra Kumar & Choudhary, Devendra, 2019. "Decarbonizing freight transportation: An integrated EFA-TISM approach to model enablers of dedicated freight corridors," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 85-100.
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    5. Sakthivel, R. & Ramesh, K. & Purnachandran, R. & Mohamed Shameer, P., 2018. "A review on the properties, performance and emission aspects of the third generation biodiesels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2970-2992.
    6. Verônica Ghisolfi & Lóránt Antal Tavasszy & Gonçalo Homem de Almeida Correia & Gisele de Lorena Diniz Chaves & Glaydston Mattos Ribeiro, 2022. "Freight Transport Decarbonization: A Systematic Literature Review of System Dynamics Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-30, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Urban mobility; Transports; Greenhouse gases; Low-carbon policies; Scenario building; Dynamic simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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