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Modelling the transition towards a green economy in South Africa

Author

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  • Musango, Josephine K.
  • Brent, Alan C.
  • Bassi, Andrea M.

Abstract

This paper presents the results of an analysis carried out using an integrated system dynamics model customised to South Africa, which was developed to study the contribution of technology policies to a green economy transition in South Africa. Two business-as-usual scenarios (BAU1 and BAU2) and two green economy scenarios (GE2% and GETS) were simulated. The results show that green economy interventions impact positively on the main indicators selected across sectors: reducing emissions, lowering the dependence on fossil fuels, particularly for the power sector, and contributing to a more sustainable utilisation of natural resources. Further, it is determined that investments in low carbon development and ecosystem services management also yield a more resilient economic growth in the medium and longer terms.

Suggested Citation

  • Musango, Josephine K. & Brent, Alan C. & Bassi, Andrea M., 2014. "Modelling the transition towards a green economy in South Africa," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 257-273.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:87:y:2014:i:c:p:257-273
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.022
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Valeria Ferreira Gregorio & Laia Pié & Antonio Terceño, 2018. "A Systematic Literature Review of Bio, Green and Circular Economy Trends in Publications in the Field of Economics and Business Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-39, November.
    2. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Research on the peak of CO2 emissions in the developing world: Current progress and future prospect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 186-203.
    3. Lin, Boqiang & Zhu, Junpeng, 2019. "Fiscal spending and green economic growth: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 264-271.
    4. Carfí, David & Donato, Alessia & Fredella, Maria Incoronata & Squillante, Massimo, 2021. "Coopetitive games for environmental sustainability: Climate change and decision global policies," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Stern, Tobias & Ledl, Caroline & Braun, Martin & Hesser, Franziska & Schwarzbauer, Peter, 2015. "Biorefineries' impacts on the Austrian forest sector: A system dynamics approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 311-326.
    6. Herrera, Milton M. & Dyner, Isaac & Cosenz, Federico, 2020. "Benefits from energy policy synchronisation of Brazil’s North-Northeast interconnection," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 427-437.
    7. Budzianowski, Wojciech M. & Nantongo, Irene & Bamutura, Cleus & Rwema, Michel & Lyambai, Martin & Abimana, Colette & Akumu, Eric O. & Alokore, Yunus & Babalola, Samuel O. & Gachuri, Amon K.K. & Hefney, 2018. "Business models and innovativeness of potential renewable energy projects in Africa," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 162-190.
    8. Ricciardi, Francesca & De Bernardi, Paola & Cantino, Valter, 2020. "System dynamics modeling as a circular process: The smart commons approach to impact management," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Qing Yang & Xingzi Wan & Huimin Ma, 2015. "Assessing Green Development Efficiency of Municipalities and Provinces in China Integrating Models of Super-Efficiency DEA and Malmquist Index," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-19, April.
    10. Menezes, Esther & Maia, Alexandre Gori & de Carvalho, Cristiane Silva, 2017. "Effectiveness of low-carbon development strategies: Evaluation of policy scenarios for the urban transport sector in a Brazilian megacity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 226-241.
    11. Miao, Nana & Sharif, Arshian & Ozturk, Ilhan & Razzaq, Asif, 2023. "How do the exploitation of natural resources and fiscal policy affect green growth? Moderating role of ecological governance in G7 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    12. Polewsky, Max & Hankammer, Stephan & Kleer, Robin & Antons, David, 2024. "Degrowth vs. Green Growth. A computational review and interdisciplinary research agenda," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    13. Nada Denona Bogovic & Zvonimira Sverko Grdic, 2020. "Transitioning to a Green Economy—Possible Effects on the Croatian Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-19, November.
    14. Jia, Shuwei & Liu, Xiaolu & Yan, Guangle, 2019. "Effect of APCF policy on the haze pollution in China: A system dynamics approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 33-44.
    15. Ayman Abdalmajeed Alsmadi & Marwan Alzoubi, 2022. "Green Economy: Bibliometric Analysis Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(2), pages 282-289, March.
    16. Littlewood, David C. & Kiyumbu, Wilkister L., 2018. "“Hub” organisations in Kenya: What are they? What do they do? And what is their potential?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 276-285.

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