IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v110y2016icp175-186.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Technology roadmapping for competitive technical intelligence

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Yi
  • Robinson, Douglas K.R.
  • Porter, Alan L.
  • Zhu, Donghua
  • Zhang, Guangquan
  • Lu, Jie

Abstract

Understanding the evolution and emergence of technology domains remains a challenge, particularly so for potentially breakthrough technologies. Though it is well recognized that emergence of new fields is complex and uncertain, to make decisions amidst such uncertainty, one needs to mobilize various sources of intelligence to identify known–knowns and known–unknowns to be able to choose appropriate strategies and policies. This competitive technical intelligence cannot rely on simple trend analyses because breakthrough technologies have little past to inform such trends, and positing the directions of evolution is challenging. Neither do qualitative tools, embracing the complexities, provide all the solutions, since transparent and repeatable techniques need to be employed to create best practices and evaluate the intelligence that comes from such exercises. In this paper, we present a hybrid roadmapping technique that draws on a number of approaches and integrates them into a multi-level approach (individual activities, industry evolutions and broader global changes) that can be applied to breakthrough technologies. We describe this approach in deeper detail through a case study on dye-sensitized solar cells. Our contribution to this special issue is to showcase the technique as part of a family of approaches that are emerging around the world to inform strategy and policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Yi & Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Porter, Alan L. & Zhu, Donghua & Zhang, Guangquan & Lu, Jie, 2016. "Technology roadmapping for competitive technical intelligence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 175-186.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:110:y:2016:i:c:p:175-186
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.11.029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162515003923
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.11.029?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Huang, Lu & Guo, Ying & Porter, Alan L., 2013. "Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 267-285.
    2. Chaomei Chen, 2006. "CiteSpace II: Detecting and visualizing emerging trends and transient patterns in scientific literature," Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 57(3), pages 359-377, February.
    3. Xiao Zhou & Yi Zhang & Alan L. Porter & Ying Guo & Donghua Zhu, 2014. "A patent analysis method to trace technology evolutionary pathways," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 100(3), pages 705-721, September.
    4. Ismael Rafols & Alan L. Porter & Loet Leydesdorff, 2010. "Science overlay maps: A new tool for research policy and library management," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 61(9), pages 1871-1887, September.
    5. Geum, Youngjung & Lee, HyeonJeong & Lee, Youngjo & Park, Yongtae, 2015. "Development of data-driven technology roadmap considering dependency: An ARM-based technology roadmapping," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 264-279.
    6. Douglas K. R. Robinson & Lu Huang & Yan Guo & Alan L. Porter, 2013. "Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies," Post-Print hal-01070417, HAL.
    7. Etzkowitz, Henry & Leydesdorff, Loet, 2000. "The dynamics of innovation: from National Systems and "Mode 2" to a Triple Helix of university-industry-government relations," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 109-123, February.
    8. Ronald N. Kostoff, 2014. "Literature-related discovery: common factors for Parkinson’s Disease and Crohn’s Disease," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 100(3), pages 623-657, September.
    9. Huang, Lu & Zhang, Yi & Guo, Ying & Zhu, Donghua & Porter, Alan L., 2014. "Four dimensional Science and Technology planning: A new approach based on bibliometrics and technology roadmapping," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 39-48.
    10. ., 1998. "Technological Change," Chapters, in: Heinz D. Kurz & Neri Salvadori (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Classical Economics, volume 0, chapter 127, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. D.K. Robinson & Lu Huang & Ying Guo & Alan L. Porter, 2013. "Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies," Post-Print hal-01071140, HAL.
    12. Zhang, Yi & Porter, Alan L. & Hu, Zhengyin & Guo, Ying & Newman, Nils C., 2014. "“Term clumping” for technical intelligence: A case study on dye-sensitized solar cells," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 26-39.
    13. Paul Resnick & Neophytos Iacovou & Mitesh Suchak & Peter Bergstrom & John Riedl, 1994. "GroupLens: An Open Architecture for Collaborative Filtering of Netnews," Working Paper Series 165, MIT Center for Coordination Science.
    14. Yi Zhang & Xiao Zhou & Alan L. Porter & Jose M. Vicente Gomila, 2014. "How to combine term clumping and technology roadmapping for newly emerging science & technology competitive intelligence: “problem & solution” pattern based semantic TRIZ tool and case study," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 101(2), pages 1375-1389, November.
    15. Yi Zhang & Xiao Zhou & Alan L. Porter & Jose M. Vicente Gomila & An Yan, 2014. "Triple Helix innovation in China’s dye-sensitized solar cell industry: hybrid methods with semantic TRIZ and technology roadmapping," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 99(1), pages 55-75, April.
    16. Tierney, Robert & Hermina, Wahid & Walsh, Steven, 2013. "The pharmaceutical technology landscape: A new form of technology roadmapping," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 194-211.
    17. Han Woo Park & Heung Deug Hong & Loet Leydesdorff, 2005. "A comparison of the knowledge-based innovation systems in the economies of South Korea and the Netherlands using Triple Helix indicators," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 65(1), pages 3-27, October.
    18. Kostoff, Ronald N. & Patel, Uptal, 2015. "Literature-related discovery and innovation: Chronic kidney disease," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 341-351.
    19. Waltman, Ludo & van Eck, Nees Jan & Noyons, Ed C.M., 2010. "A unified approach to mapping and clustering of bibliometric networks," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 629-635.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Junhan & Geum, Youngjung, 2021. "How to develop data-driven technology roadmaps:The integration of topic modeling and link prediction," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    2. Ma, Tingting & Zhou, Xiao & Liu, Jia & Lou, Zhenkai & Hua, Zhaoting & Wang, Ruitao, 2021. "Combining topic modeling and SAO semantic analysis to identify technological opportunities of emerging technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    3. Nayak, Bishwajit & Bhattacharyya, Som Sekhar & Krishnamoorthy, Bala, 2021. "Explicating the role of emerging technologies and firm capabilities towards attainment of competitive advantage in health insurance service firms," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    4. Yuskevich, Ilya & Hein, Andreas Makoto & Amokrane-Ferka, Kahina & Doufene, Abdelkrim & Jankovic, Marija, 2021. "A metamodel of an informational structure for model-based technology roadmapping," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    5. Landoni, Matteo & ogilvie, dt, 2019. "Convergence of innovation policies in the European aerospace industry (1960–2000)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 174-184.
    6. Leurent, Martin & Da Costa, Pascal & Jasserand, Frédéric & Rämä, Miika & Persson, Urban, 2018. "Cost and climate savings through nuclear district heating in a French urban area," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 616-630.
    7. Ogden, Joan & Jaffe, Amy Myers & Scheitrum, Daniel & McDonald, Zane & Miller, Marshall, 2018. "Natural gas as a bridge to hydrogen transportation fuel: Insights from the literature," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 317-329.
    8. Zhou, Xiao & Huang, Lu & Porter, Alan & Vicente-Gomila, Jose M., 2019. "Tracing the system transformations and innovation pathways of an emerging technology: Solid lipid nanoparticles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 785-794.
    9. Zhang, Yi & Zhang, Guangquan & Chen, Hongshu & Porter, Alan L. & Zhu, Donghua & Lu, Jie, 2016. "Topic analysis and forecasting for science, technology and innovation: Methodology with a case study focusing on big data research," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 179-191.
    10. Marek Jemala, 2019. "Problematic Roadmapping for Companies in Less Developed Regions of Slovakia," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(08), pages 1-26, December.
    11. Dirk Meissner & Maxim Kotsemir, 2016. "Conceptualizing the innovation process towards the ‘active innovation paradigm’—trends and outlook," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, December.
    12. Azimi, Sasan & Rahmani, Rouhollah & Fateh-rad, Mahdi, 2019. "Investment cost optimization for industrial project portfolios using technology mining," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 243-253.
    13. Li, Xin & Xie, Qianqian & Daim, Tugrul & Huang, Lucheng, 2019. "Forecasting technology trends using text mining of the gaps between science and technology: The case of perovskite solar cell technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 432-449.
    14. Grinin, Leonid E. & Grinin, Anton L. & Korotayev, Andrey, 2017. "Forthcoming Kondratieff wave, Cybernetic Revolution, and global ageing," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 52-68.
    15. Li, Munan & Wang, Wenshu & Zhou, Keyu, 2021. "Exploring the technology emergence related to artificial intelligence: A perspective of coupling analyses," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    16. Huang, Ying & Porter, Alan L. & Zhang, Yi & Lian, Xiangpeng & Guo, Ying, 2019. "An assessment of technology forecasting: Revisiting earlier analyses on dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 831-843.
    17. de Alcantara, Douglas Pedro & Martens, Mauro Luiz, 2019. "Technology Roadmapping (TRM): a systematic review of the literature focusing on models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 127-138.
    18. Xu, Shuo & Hao, Liyuan & Yang, Guancan & Lu, Kun & An, Xin, 2021. "A topic models based framework for detecting and forecasting emerging technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Yi & Zhang, Guangquan & Chen, Hongshu & Porter, Alan L. & Zhu, Donghua & Lu, Jie, 2016. "Topic analysis and forecasting for science, technology and innovation: Methodology with a case study focusing on big data research," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 179-191.
    2. Huang, Ying & Porter, Alan L. & Zhang, Yi & Lian, Xiangpeng & Guo, Ying, 2019. "An assessment of technology forecasting: Revisiting earlier analyses on dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 831-843.
    3. Zhang, Yi & Huang, Ying & Porter, Alan L. & Zhang, Guangquan & Lu, Jie, 2019. "Discovering and forecasting interactions in big data research: A learning-enhanced bibliometric study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 795-807.
    4. Coccia, Mario & Wang, Lili, 2015. "Path-breaking directions of nanotechnology-based chemotherapy and molecular cancer therapy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 155-169.
    5. Zhou, Xiao & Huang, Lu & Porter, Alan & Vicente-Gomila, Jose M., 2019. "Tracing the system transformations and innovation pathways of an emerging technology: Solid lipid nanoparticles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 785-794.
    6. Li, Munan & Porter, Alan L. & Suominen, Arho, 2018. "Insights into relationships between disruptive technology/innovation and emerging technology: A bibliometric perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 285-296.
    7. Huang, Ying & Porter, Alan L. & Cunningham, Scott W. & Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Liu, Jianhua & Zhu, Donghua, 2018. "A technology delivery system for characterizing the supply side of technology emergence: Illustrated for Big Data & Analytics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 165-176.
    8. Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Lagnau, Axel & Boon, Wouter P.C., 2019. "Innovation pathways in additive manufacturing: Methods for tracing emerging and branching paths from rapid prototyping to alternative applications," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 733-750.
    9. Gibson, Elizabeth & Daim, Tugrul U. & Dabic, Marina, 2019. "Evaluating university industry collaborative research centers," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 181-202.
    10. Kokshagina, Olga & Gillier, Thomas & Cogez, Patrick & Le Masson, Pascal & Weil, Benoit, 2017. "Using innovation contests to promote the development of generic technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 152-164.
    11. Wang, Chang & Geng, Hongjun & Sun, Rui & Song, Huiling, 2022. "Technological potential analysis and vacant technology forecasting in the graphene field based on the patent data mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. Zhang, Yi & Shang, Lining & Huang, Lu & Porter, Alan L. & Zhang, Guangquan & Lu, Jie & Zhu, Donghua, 2016. "A hybrid similarity measure method for patent portfolio analysis," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 1108-1130.
    13. Zhu, Lin & Cunningham, Scott W., 2022. "Unveiling the knowledge structure of technological forecasting and social change (1969–2020) through an NMF-based hierarchical topic model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    14. Lai, Kuei-Kuei & Chen, Yu-Long & Kumar, Vimal & Daim, Tugrul & Verma, Pratima & Kao, Fang-Chen & Liu, Ruirong, 2023. "Mapping technological trajectories and exploring knowledge sources: A case study of E-payment technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PB).
    15. Elizabeth Gibson & Tugrul Daim & Edwin Garces & Marina Dabic, 2018. "Technology Foresight: A Bibliometric Analysis to Identify Leading and Emerging Methods," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 6-24.
    16. Ying Huang & Wolfgang Glänzel & Lin Zhang, 2021. "Tracing the development of mapping knowledge domains," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(7), pages 6201-6224, July.
    17. Li, Xin & Xie, Qianqian & Jiang, Jiaojiao & Zhou, Yuan & Huang, Lucheng, 2019. "Identifying and monitoring the development trends of emerging technologies using patent analysis and Twitter data mining: The case of perovskite solar cell technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 687-705.
    18. Chan-Yuan Wong & Hon-Ngen Fung, 2017. "Science-technology-industry correlative indicators for policy targeting on emerging technologies: exploring the core competencies and promising industries of aspirant economies," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(2), pages 841-867, May.
    19. Cheng, Yu & Huang, Lucheng & Ramlogan, Ronnie & Li, Xin, 2017. "Forecasting of potential impacts of disruptive technology in promising technological areas: Elaborating the SIRS epidemic model in RFID technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 170-183.
    20. Nieminen, Paavo & Pölönen, Ilkka & Sipola, Tuomo, 2013. "Research literature clustering using diffusion maps," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 874-886.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:110:y:2016:i:c:p:175-186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.