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Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas K. R. Robinson

    (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Lu Huang

    (School of Management and Economics - BIT - Beijing Institute of Technology)

  • Yan Guo

    (Management Science and Engineering, - BIT - Beijing Institute of Technology)

  • Alan L. Porter

    (School of Public Policy - Georgia Institute of Technology [Atlanta])

Abstract

"New" and "Emerging Science" and "Technologies" ("NESTs") have tremendous innovation potential. However this must be weighed against enormous uncertainties caused by many unknowns. The authors of this paper offer a framework to analyze NESTs to help ascertain likely innovation pathways.We have devised a 10-step framework based on extensive Future-oriented Technology Analyses ("FTA") experience, enriched by in-depth case analyses. In the paper, we describe our analytical activities in two case studies. The nanobiosensor experience is contrasted with that of deep brain stimulation in relative quantitative and qualitative emphases.We close the paper by reflecting on this systematic FTA framework for emerging science and technologies, for its intended goal, that is to support decision making.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas K. R. Robinson & Lu Huang & Yan Guo & Alan L. Porter, 2013. "Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies," Post-Print hal-01070417, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01070417
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.06.004
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://minesparis-psl.hal.science/hal-01070417v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Douglas K. R. Robinson & Martin Ruivenkamp & Arie Rip, 2007. "Tracking the evolution of new and emerging S&T via statement-linkages: Vision assessment in molecular machines," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 70(3), pages 831-858, March.
    4. Simona O. Negro & Marko P. Hekkert, 2008. "Explaining the success of emerging technologies by innovation system functioning: the case of biomass digestion in Germany," Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series 08-08, Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies, revised Feb 2008.
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