IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v104y2016icp180-190.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Weak signals and damage scenarios — Systematics to identify weak signals and their sources related to mass transport attacks

Author

Listed:
  • Koivisto, Raija
  • Kulmala, Ilpo
  • Gotcheva, Nadezhda

Abstract

Mass transport systems are vital for big cities and their disruption may have severe consequences for the economy, safety and security of the general public. Thus far, the attacks on mass transport have been about twice as lethal as terrorist attacks overall. Mass transport systems are typically of open design layout with multiple access points, and these characteristics make the process of screening challenging. Therefore, the early identification of an attack plan is the most efficient way to protect such systems. This paper aims to better understand the attack phenomenon and to develop a new approach for the systematic identification of possible weak signals and their sources. If such weak signals can be timely detected and correctly interpreted, this could improve awareness and thus possibilities for intervention. The developed approach is demonstrated by applying it to two well-known but different cases: the Tokyo sarin attack of 1995 and the 2005 London bombings.

Suggested Citation

  • Koivisto, Raija & Kulmala, Ilpo & Gotcheva, Nadezhda, 2016. "Weak signals and damage scenarios — Systematics to identify weak signals and their sources related to mass transport attacks," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 180-190.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:104:y:2016:i:c:p:180-190
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016251500414X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ansoff, H. Igor, 1985. "Conceptual underpinnings of systematic strategic management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 2-19, January.
    2. Peter J. Phillips & Gabriela Pohl, 2014. "Prospect theory and terrorist choice," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 17, pages 139-160, May.
    3. Julien, Pierre-André & Lamonde, Pierre & Latouche, Daniel, 1975. "La méthode des scénarios en prospective," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 51(2), pages 253-281, avril.
    4. Schoemaker, Paul J.H. & Day, George S. & Snyder, Scott A., 2013. "Integrating organizational networks, weak signals, strategic radars and scenario planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 815-824.
    5. Fred Mobasheri & Lowell H. Orren & Fereidoon P. Sioshansi, 1989. "Scenario Planning at Southern California Edison," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 19(5), pages 31-44, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramboarison-Lalao, Lovanirina & Gannouni, Kais, 2019. "Liberated firm, a leverage of well-being and technological change? A prospective study based on the scenario method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 129-139.
    2. Sapio, Bartolomeo, 1995. "SEARCH (Scenario evaluation and analysis through repeated cross impact handling): a new method for scenario analysis with an application to the Videotel service in Italy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 113-131, March.
    3. Douglas T. Gardner & J. Scott Rogers, 1999. "Planning Electric Power Systems Under Demand Uncertainty with Different Technology Lead Times," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1289-1306, October.
    4. Roger Moser & Srinath Rengarajan & Gopalakrishnan Narayanamurthy, 2021. "Decision Intelligence: Creating a Fit between Intelligence Requirements and Intelligence Processing Capacities," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 10(2), pages 160-177, July.
    5. Bolger, Fergus & Wright, George, 2017. "Use of expert knowledge to anticipate the future: Issues, analysis and directions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 230-243.
    6. Cheng, M.N. & Wong, Jane W.K. & Cheung, C.F. & Leung, K.H., 2016. "A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 44-62.
    7. Fellnhofer, Katharina, 2022. "Entrepreneurial alertness toward responsible research and innovation: Digital technology makes the psychological heart of entrepreneurship pound," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    8. Edi Suandi & Herri & Yulihasri & Syafrizal, 2023. "Evaluating the relationship between entrepreneurial marketing, competitive advantage, and Islamic banks performance," Journal of Financial Services Marketing, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 28(3), pages 599-614, September.
    9. Leonid Gitelman & Mikhail Kozhevnikov, 2018. "Paradigm of Managerial Education for a Technological Breakthrough in the Economy," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 433-449.
    10. Jessica Olivares-Aguila & Alejandro Vital-Soto, 2021. "Supply Chain Resilience Roadmaps for Major Disruptions," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-18, November.
    11. Shardul Sharad Phadnis & Inga‐Lena Darkow, 2021. "Scenario planning as a strategy process to foster supply chain adaptability: theoretical framework and longitudinal case," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), June.
    12. Paul J. H. Schoemaker & George S. Day, 2020. "Determinants of organizational vigilance: Leadership, foresight, and adaptation in three sectors," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), March.
    13. Michael Sheppard, 2023. "The behavioural gap between entrepreneurial SME’s and high growth: evidence from Canada," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 427-449, March.
    14. Gordon, Adam Vigdor & Ramic, Mirza & Rohrbeck, René & Spaniol, Matthew J., 2020. "50 Years of corporate and organizational foresight: Looking back and going forward," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    15. Tiberius, Victor & Siglow, Caroline & Sendra-García, Javier, 2020. "Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 235-242.
    16. Yuliya Soboleva & Irina Golaydo & Nina Ligina, 2015. "Strategy of Expanding the Distribution Network Based on the Evaluation of the Investment Attractiveness of the Regions," Modern Applied Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(5), pages 304-304, May.
    17. Jean-Francois Guay & Jean-Philippe Waaub, 2019. "SOMERSET-P: a GIS-based/MCDA platform for strategic planning scenarios’ ranking and decision-making in conflictual socioecosystem," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 7(3), pages 301-325, November.
    18. Marinković, Milan & Al-Tabbaa, Omar & Khan, Zaheer & Wu, Jie, 2022. "Corporate foresight: A systematic literature review and future research trajectories," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 289-311.
    19. Rengarajan, Srinath & Moser, Roger & Narayanamurthy, Gopalakrishnan, 2021. "Strategy tools in dynamic environments – An expert-panel study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    20. Kerstin E. Cuhls, 2020. "Horizon Scanning in Foresight – Why Horizon Scanning is only a part of the game," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:104:y:2016:i:c:p:180-190. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.