IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v82y2014icp52-65.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Driving forces of technological change: The relation between population growth and technological innovation

Author

Listed:
  • Coccia, Mario

Abstract

Population growth is one of the major problems facing the world today because it affects the patterns of sustainable economic growth. The economic phenomenon to be explained in this study is the relation between population growth and technological outputs (patents), focusing on OECD countries, in order to analyze the range of population growth rates favorable to support higher technological output, ceteris paribus. The study seems to show the existence of an inverted-U shaped curve between population growth rate and patents, with an optimal intermediate area in which population growth rates tend to be associated to higher technological outputs. The public policy consequences of this vital relation are that, on average, it is difficult to support an optimal level of technological performance with both a low/negative and a high (higher than 1%) population growth rate-annual % in advanced nations. A main consequence is that the estimated relationship of technological outputs vs. population growth is likely to be affected by decreasing returns of technological innovation to population growth, because a higher population might decrease research productivity, which is sensitive to the relation between income per capita and population growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Coccia, Mario, 2014. "Driving forces of technological change: The relation between population growth and technological innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 52-65.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:82:y:2014:i:c:p:52-65
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.06.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162513001261
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.06.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jennifer Hunt & Marjolaine Gauthier-Loiselle, 2010. "How Much Does Immigration Boost Innovation?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 31-56, April.
    2. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis, 1997. "The problem of population and growth: A review of the literature from Malthus to contemporary models of endogenous population and endogenous growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 205-242, January.
    3. Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport, 2012. "Globalization, Brain Drain, and Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 681-730, September.
    4. Young, Alwyn, 1993. "Invention and Bounded Learning by Doing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 443-472, June.
    5. William R. Kerr & William F. Lincoln, 2010. "The Supply Side of Innovation: H-1B Visa Reforms and U.S. Ethnic Invention," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(3), pages 473-508, July.
    6. World Bank, 2008. "World Development Indicators 2008," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 11855.
    7. Holger Strulik, 2005. "The Role of Human Capital and Population Growth in R&D‐based Models of Economic Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 129-145, February.
    8. Chamon, Marcos & Kremer, Michael, 2009. "Economic transformation, population growth and the long-run world income distribution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 20-30, September.
    9. Charles I. Jones & Paul M. Romer, 2010. "The New Kaldor Facts: Ideas, Institutions, Population, and Human Capital," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 224-245, January.
    10. Mario Coccia, 2013. "Population and technological innovation: the optimal interaction across modern countries," CERIS Working Paper 201307, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    11. Mario Coccia, 2007. "A new taxonomy of country performance and risk based on economic and technological indicators," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 10, pages 29-42, May.
    12. Samuel S. Kortum, 1997. "Research, Patenting, and Technological Change," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1389-1420, November.
    13. Mario Coccia, 2009. "A New Approach for Measuring and Analysing Patterns of Regional Economic Growth: Empirical Analysis in Italy," SCIENZE REGIONALI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 8(2), pages 71-95.
    14. Jennifer Hunt, 2011. "Which Immigrants Are Most Innovative and Entrepreneurial? Distinctions by Entry Visa," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(3), pages 417-457.
    15. Valli Vittorio & Saccone Donatella, 2011. "Economic development and population growth: an inverted-U shaped curve?," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201105, University of Turin.
    16. Coccia, Mario, 2012. "Driving forces of technological change in medicine: Radical innovations induced by side effects and their impact on society and healthcare," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 271-283.
    17. Simon Kuznets, 1960. "Population Change and Aggregate Output," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 324-351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Modis, Theodore, 2005. "Discussion of Huebner Article," OSF Preprints nwzjr, Center for Open Science.
    19. Jennifer Hunt, 2013. "Are Immigrants the Best and Brightest U.S. Engineers?," NBER Working Papers 18696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Mario Coccia, 2007. "Macchine, lavoro e accrescimento della ricchezza. Riflessioni sul progresso tecnico, occupazione e sviluppo economico nel pensiero economico del Settecento ed Ottocento," CERIS Working Paper 200701, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    21. Boeri, Tito & Brucker, Herbert & Docquier, Frederic & Rapoport, Hillel (ed.), 2012. "Brain Drain and Brain Gain: The Global Competition to Attract High-Skilled Migrants," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199654826.
    22. H. Peyton Young, 2009. "Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations: Contagion, Social Influence, and Social Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1899-1924, December.
    23. Bucci, Alberto, 2008. "Population growth in a model of economic growth with human capital accumulation and horizontal R&D," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1124-1147, September.
    24. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    25. Michael Kremer, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716.
    26. World Bank, 2008. "World Development Indicators 2008," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28241.
    27. Yasuhiro Sato & Ken Tabata & Kazuhiro Yamamoto, 2008. "Technological progress, income inequality, and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(1), pages 135-157, January.
    28. Petra Moser, 2013. "Patents and Innovation: Evidence from Economic History," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 23-44, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mario Coccia, 2013. "Population and technological innovation: the optimal interaction across modern countries," CERIS Working Paper 201307, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    2. Coccia, Mario, 2015. "General sources of general purpose technologies in complex societies: Theory of global leadership-driven innovation, warfare and human development," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-226.
    3. Coccia M., 2014. "Temperate climate - Innovative outputs nexus," MERIT Working Papers 2014-088, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    4. Dr Max Nathan, 2013. "The wider economic impacts of high-skilled migrants: a survey of the literature," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 413, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    5. Creina Day, 2016. "Non-Scale Endogenous Growth with R&D and Human Capital," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(5), pages 443-467, November.
    6. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William Kerr & Çağlar Özden & Christopher Parsons, 2017. "High-Skilled Migration and Agglomeration," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 201-234, September.
    7. Bucci, Alberto & Eraydın, Levent & Müller, Moritz, 2019. "Dilution effects, population growth and economic growth under human capital accumulation and endogenous technological change," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle H. & Prettner, Klaus & Tscheuschner, Paul, 2020. "The scientific revolution and its role in the transition to sustained economic growth," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 06-2020, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    9. Bucci Alberto & Raurich Xavier, 2017. "Population and Economic Growth Under Different Growth Engines," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 182-211, May.
    10. Nathan, Max, 2013. "The Wider Economic Impacts of High-Skilled Migrants: A Survey of the Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 7653, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Alberto Bucci, 2010. "Population in Factor Accumulation-based Growth," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 33-68.
    12. Boikos, Spyridon & Bucci, Alberto & Stengos, Thanasis, 2013. "Non-monotonicity of fertility in human capital accumulation and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 44-59.
    13. Alberto Bucci, 2014. "Population, competition, innovation, and economic growth with and without human capital investment," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 61(1), pages 61-84, April.
    14. Breschi, Stefano & Lawson, Cornelia & Lissoni, Francesco & Morrison, Andrea & Salter, Ammon, 2020. "STEM migration, research, and innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(9).
    15. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William Kerr & Çağlar Özden & Christopher Parsons, 2017. "High-Skilled Migration and Agglomeration," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 201-234, September.
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle & Prettner, Klaus & Tscheuschner, Paul, 2023. "The scientific revolution and its implications for long-run economic development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    18. Boikos, Spyridon & Bucci, Alberto & Stengos, Thanasis, 2022. "Leisure and innovation in horizontal R&D-based growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    19. William R. Kerr, 2020. "The Gift of Global Talent: Innovation Policy and the Economy," Innovation Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(1), pages 1-37.
    20. Annarita BALDANZI & Alberto BUCCI & Klaus PRETTNER, 2016. "The Effects of Health Investments on Human Capital and R&D-Driven Economic Growth," Departmental Working Papers 2016-17, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    21. repec:got:cegedp:140 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Pekkala Kerr, Sari & Kerr, William, 2020. "Immigrant entrepreneurship in America: Evidence from the survey of business owners 2007 & 2012," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(3).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population; Population growth; Technological innovation; Technological change; Demographic change; Patents; Economic change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:82:y:2014:i:c:p:52-65. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.