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Participatory energy scenario development as dramatic scripting: A structural narrative analysis

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  • Upham, Paul
  • Klapper, Rita
  • Carney, Sebastian

Abstract

Drawing on 46 low carbon, backcasted energy scenarios produced with stakeholders in 14 European cities, we illustrate the value of structural narrative analysis for illuminating the dynamics of participatory scenario processes. We show that despite tight technological structuring, the experience of the scenario participants has commonalities with dramatic scripting. These commonalities include: specific characterisation; the development of internally consistent, plausible plots that parallel character development; the construction of plot sequences; and emotional engagement by the writers, who themselves undergo processes of struggle, learning and increased awareness. We suggest that these parallels provide a way of thinking about scenario process design, as dramatic scripting. We particularly focus on the characterisation of ‘the public’ by the scenario participants, involving a variety of assumptions about likely human behaviour.

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  • Upham, Paul & Klapper, Rita & Carney, Sebastian, 2016. "Participatory energy scenario development as dramatic scripting: A structural narrative analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 47-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:103:y:2016:i:c:p:47-56
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.10.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Kishita, Yusuke & McLellan, Benjamin C. & Giurco, Damien & Aoki, Kazumasu & Yoshizawa, Go & Handoh, Itsuki C., 2017. "Designing backcasting scenarios for resilient energy futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 114-125.
    2. Kishita, Yusuke & Mizuno, Yuji & Fukushige, Shinichi & Umeda, Yasushi, 2020. "Scenario structuring methodology for computer-aided scenario design: An application to envisioning sustainable futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    3. Heinonen, Sirkka & Minkkinen, Matti & Karjalainen, Joni & Inayatullah, Sohail, 2017. "Testing transformative energy scenarios through causal layered analysis gaming," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 101-113.
    4. Leonard Goke & Jens Weibezahn & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2021. "A collective blueprint, not a crystal ball: How expectations and participation shape long-term energy scenarios," Papers 2112.04821, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    5. Nicola Stocco & Francesco Gardona & Fulvio Biddau & Paolo Francesco Cottone, 2021. "Learning Processes and Agency in the Decarbonization Context: A Systematic Review through a Cultural Psychology Point of View," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-31, September.
    6. Hori, Keiko & Kim, Jaegyu & Kawase, Reina & Kimura, Michinori & Matsui, Takanori & Machimura, Takashi, 2020. "Local energy system design support using a renewable energy mix multi-objective optimization model and a co-creative optimization process," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 1278-1291.
    7. Yusuke Kishita & Takuma Masuda & Hidenori Nakamura & Kazumasu Aoki, 2023. "Computer‐aided scenario design using participatory backcasting: A case study of sustainable vision creation in a Japanese city," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), March.

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