IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/streco/v69y2024icp339-348.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fertility rate, fertility policy, and climate policy: A case study in China

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Shuyang

Abstract

Although population growth plays a vital role in driving anthropogenic climate change, fertility impact on achieving mitigation target is usually overlooked in literature. This paper attempts to narrow the research gap by employing a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the interrelations among fertility rate, fertility policy, and climate policy in China. The model results show that fertility rate negatively correlates with GDP and emissions because higher fertility induces more labor for childcare and thus crowds out labor for work. The three-child policy raises fertility intention; it does not unidirectionally influence the effects of the emission trading scheme (ETS) on employment and GDP, but it increases ETS emission abatement. Technological progress increases GDP and decreases emissions; the three-child policy strengthens technological impact on GDP but weakens technological impact on emissions. Hence, technological progress benefits emission mitigation; the three-child policy enhances economic benefits but impairs emission abatement of technological progress.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Shuyang, 2024. "Fertility rate, fertility policy, and climate policy: A case study in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 339-348.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:69:y:2024:i:c:p:339-348
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.01.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X24000055
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.strueco.2024.01.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shuyang Chen, 2022. "The inequality impacts of the carbon tax in China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Robert McNown, 2003. "A Cointegration Model of Age-Specific Fertility and Female Labor Supply in the United States," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(2), pages 344-358, October.
    3. YoungSeok Hwang & Jung-Sup Um & Stephan Schlüter, 2020. "Evaluating the Mutual Relationship between IPAT/Kaya Identity Index and ODIAC-Based GOSAT Fossil-Fuel CO 2 Flux: Potential and Constraints in Utilizing Decomposed Variables," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-18, August.
    4. Jia Yang & Wanlin Xie & Xunyi Lin & Hui Li, 2022. "Parenting Stress, Parent–Child Literacy Activities, and Pre-Schoolers’ Reading Interest: The Moderation Role of Child Number in Chinese Families," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-14, November.
    5. Lupi, Veronica & Marsiglio, Simone, 2021. "Population growth and climate change: A dynamic integrated climate-economy-demography model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    6. van Dalen, Hendrik Peter & Henkens, C.J.I.M., 2021. "Population and climate change: Consensus and dissensus among demographers," Other publications TiSEM a5df9341-8467-4d0e-9740-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Tong Meng & Shibin Lyu, 2022. "The impact of the selective two-child policy on residents’ fertility intentions in China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(16), pages 1455-1459, September.
    8. Mark Budolfson & Dean Spears, 2021. "Population Ethics and the Prospects for Fertility Policy as Climate Mitigation Policy," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(9), pages 1499-1510, September.
    9. Mu, Yaqian & Evans, Samuel & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia, 2018. "How will sectoral coverage affect the efficiency of an emissions trading system? A CGE-based case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 403-414.
    10. Dai, Hancheng & Xie, Yang & Liu, Jingyu & Masui, Toshihiko, 2018. "Aligning renewable energy targets with carbon emissions trading to achieve China's INDCs: A general equilibrium assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 4121-4131.
    11. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2014. "Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007)," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 187-221, May.
    12. Angus Chu & Guido Cozzi & Chih-Hsing Liao, 2013. "Endogenous fertility and human capital in a Schumpeterian growth model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 181-202, January.
    13. Maarten Van Ham & Clara H. Mulder, 2005. "Geographical Access To Childcare And Mothers’ Labour‐Force Participation," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 96(1), pages 63-74, February.
    14. Rong Ma & Haoqi Qian, 2022. "Plant-Level Evaluation Of China’S National Emissions Trading Scheme: Benchmark Matters," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(01), pages 1-25, February.
    15. Sheng-Miauh Huang & Ling-Ming Tseng & Jerry Cheng-Yen Lai & Yi-Fang Tsai & Pei-Ju Lien & Ping-Ho Chen, 2020. "Impact of Symptom and Social Support on Fertility Intention in Reproductive-Age Women With Breast Cancer," Clinical Nursing Research, , vol. 29(6), pages 411-418, July.
    16. Wang, Ye & Zhao, Xindong, 2022. "Grandparental childcare, maternal labor force participation, and the birth of a second child: Further knowledge from empirical analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 762-770.
    17. Ying Qian & Xiao-ying Liu & Bing Fang & Fan Zhang & Rui Gao, 2020. "Investigating Fertility Intentions for a Second Child in Contemporary China Based on User-Generated Content," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-15, May.
    18. Lin, Justin Yifu & Liu, Zhengwen & Zhang, Bo, 2023. "Endowment, technology choice, and industrial upgrading," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 364-381.
    19. Ye Wang & Xindong Zhao & Yu-Wang Chen, 2021. "Grandparental Childcare and Second Birth in China: Evidence from a Dynamic Model and Empirical Study," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-15, June.
    20. Chindo Sulaiman & A. S. Abdul-Rahim, 2018. "Population Growth and CO2 Emission in Nigeria: A Recursive ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 8(2), pages 21582440187, April.
    21. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2018. "Impact of quota decline scheme of emission trading in China: A dynamic recursive CGE model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 190-203.
    22. Guo, Rufei & Li, Hongbin & Yi, Junjian & Zhang, Junsen, 2018. "Fertility, household structure, and parental labor supply: Evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 145-156.
    23. Chen, Shuyang & Wang, Can, 2023. "Inequality impacts of ETS penalties: A case study on the recent Chinese nationwide ETS market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    24. Reyer Gerlagh & Veronica Lupi & Marzio Galeotti, 2023. "Fertility and climate change," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 208-252, January.
    25. Cao, Jing & Dai, Hancheng & Li, Shantong & Guo, Chaoyi & Ho, Mun & Cai, Wenjia & He, Jianwu & Huang, Hai & Li, Jifeng & Liu, Yu & Qian, Haoqi & Wang, Can & Wu, Libo & Zhang, Xiliang, 2021. "The general equilibrium impacts of carbon tax policy in China: A multi-model comparison," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    26. Mark Budolfson & Francis Dennig & Marc Fleurbaey & Noah Scovronick & Asher Siebert & Dean Spears & Fabian Wagner, 2019. "Optimal Climate Policy and the Future of World Economic Development," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 33(1), pages 21-40.
    27. Wei Li & Zhijie Jia, 2017. "Carbon tax, emission trading, or the mixed policy: which is the most effective strategy for climate change mitigation in China?," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 973-992, August.
    28. Li, Wei & Jia, Zhijie, 2016. "The impact of emission trading scheme and the ratio of free quota: A dynamic recursive CGE model in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1-14.
    29. Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
    30. Ni Ning & Jingfei Tang & Yizhou Huang & Xiangmin Tan & Qian Lin & Mei Sun, 2022. "Fertility Intention to Have a Third Child in China following the Three-Child Policy: A Cross-Sectional Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-12, November.
    31. Shahiduzzaman, Md. & Layton, Allan, 2015. "Changes in CO2 emissions over business cycle recessions and expansions in the United States: A decomposition analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 25-35.
    32. Hannes Weber & Jennifer Dabbs Sciubba, 2019. "The Effect of Population Growth on the Environment: Evidence from European Regions," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(2), pages 379-402, May.
    33. Hendrik P. Dalen & Kène Henkens, 2021. "Population and Climate Change: Consensus and Dissensus among Demographers," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(3), pages 551-567, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Shuyang & Wang, Can, 2023. "Inequality impacts of ETS penalties: A case study on the recent Chinese nationwide ETS market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    2. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2020. "Does the different sectoral coverage matter? An analysis of China's carbon trading market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Yu, Zhongjue & Geng, Yong & Calzadilla, Alvaro & Bleischwitz, Raimund, 2022. "China's unconventional carbon emissions trading market: The impact of a rate-based cap in the power generation sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    4. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2019. "How does tax system on energy industries affect energy demand, CO2 emissions, and economy in China?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Wei Wei & Ling He & Xiaofan Li & Qi Cui & Hao Chen, 2022. "The Effectiveness and Trade-Offs of Renewable Energy Policies in Achieving the Dual Decarbonization Goals in China: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-18, May.
    6. Tang, Ling & Wang, Haohan & Li, Ling & Yang, Kaitong & Mi, Zhifu, 2020. "Quantitative models in emission trading system research: A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    7. Shuyang Chen & Mingyu Li & Can Wang, 2023. "The primary benefits of the Nationwide Emission Trading Scheme in China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 28(8), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Pang, Jun & Timilsina, Govinda, 2021. "How would an emissions trading scheme affect provincial economies in China: Insights from a computable general equilibrium model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    9. Zhang, Lirong & Li, Yakun & Jia, Zhijie, 2018. "Impact of carbon allowance allocation on power industry in China’s carbon trading market: Computable general equilibrium based analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 814-827.
    10. Julien Lefevre, 2018. "Modeling the Socioeconomic Impacts of the Adoption of a Carbon Pricing Instrument – Literature review," CIRED Working Papers hal-03128619, HAL.
    11. Henrik-Alexander Schubert & Christian Dudel & Marina Kolobova & Mikko Myrskylä, 2023. "Revisiting the J-shape: human development and fertility in the United States," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-022, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    12. Magazzino, Cosimo & Drago, Carlo & Schneider, Nicolas, 2023. "Evidence of supply security and sustainability challenges in Nigeria’s power sector," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    13. Yidan Chen & Jiang Lin & David Roland-Holst & Xu Liu & Can Wang, 2023. "Declining Renewable Costs, Emissions Trading, and Economic Growth: China’s Power System at the Crossroads," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-14, January.
    14. Jin, Gui & Shi, Xin & Zhang, Lei & Hu, Shougeng, 2020. "Measuring the SCCs of different Chinese regions under future scenarios," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    15. Du, Minzhe & Wu, Fenger & Ye, Danfeng & Zhao, Yating & Liao, Liping, 2023. "Exploring the effects of energy quota trading policy on carbon emission efficiency: Quasi-experimental evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    16. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2018. "Impact of quota decline scheme of emission trading in China: A dynamic recursive CGE model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 190-203.
    17. Tan, Qinliang & Ding, Yihong & Ye, Qi & Mei, Shufan & Zhang, Yimei & Wei, Yongmei, 2019. "Optimization and evaluation of a dispatch model for an integrated wind-photovoltaic-thermal power system based on dynamic carbon emissions trading," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Aolin Leng & Fuli Kang, 2022. "Impact of two-child policy on female employment and corporate performance: Empirical evidence from Chinese listed companies from 2010 to 2020," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    19. Shuyang Chen, 2022. "The inequality impacts of the carbon tax in China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    20. Lawrence M Berger & Giulia Ferrari & Marion Leturcq & Lidia Panico & Anne Solaz, 2021. "COVID-19 lockdowns and demographically-relevant Google Trends: A cross-national analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-28, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:69:y:2024:i:c:p:339-348. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.