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COVID-19 lockdowns and air quality: Evidence from grey spatiotemporal forecasts

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  • Gao, Mingyun
  • Yang, Honglin
  • Xiao, Qinzi
  • Goh, Mark

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel grey spatiotemporal model and quantitatively analyzes the spillover and momentum effects of the COVID-19 lockdown policy on the concentration of PM2.5 (particulate matter of diameter less than 2.5 μm) in Wuhan during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown from 23 January to 8 April 2020 inclusive, and the post-pandemic period from 9 April 2020 to 17 October 2020 inclusive. The results suggest that the stringent lockdowns lead to a reduction in PM2.5 emissions arising from a momentum effect (9.57–18.67%) and a spillover effect (7.07–27.60%).

Suggested Citation

  • Gao, Mingyun & Yang, Honglin & Xiao, Qinzi & Goh, Mark, 2022. "COVID-19 lockdowns and air quality: Evidence from grey spatiotemporal forecasts," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:83:y:2022:i:c:s0038012122000064
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2022.101228
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    1. Duan, Huiming & Nie, Weige, 2022. "A novel grey model based on Susceptible Infected Recovered Model: A case study of COVD-19," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 602(C).
    2. Rao, Congjun & Zhang, Yue & Wen, Jianghui & Xiao, Xinping & Goh, Mark, 2023. "Energy demand forecasting in China: A support vector regression-compositional data second exponential smoothing model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    3. Ding, Qi & Xiao, Xinping & Kong, Dekai, 2023. "Estimating energy-related CO2 emissions using a novel multivariable fuzzy grey model with time-delay and interaction effect characteristics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    4. Duan, Huiming & Liu, Yunmei & Wang, Guan, 2022. "A novel dynamic time-delay grey model of energy prices and its application in crude oil price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).

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