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New evidence of extreme risk transmission between financial stress and international crude oil markets

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  • Hong, Yanran
  • Li, Pan
  • Wang, Lu
  • Zhang, Yaojie

Abstract

We aim to analyze the risk transmission between financial stress and crude oil under different shocks, with applying a novel Granger causality test. Recent works suggest that this risk transmission is mixed, however, scholars mainly focus on their average causality but neglect the extreme causality and its time-varying characteristic. Using the weekly data of the financial stress index and WTI prices spanning from 1994 to 2020, we employ the extreme time-domain and frequency-domain Granger causality test to conduct our research. Results obtained from the time-domain test imply that their causality generally originates from extreme shocks rather than non-extreme shocks, which hasn’t been found before. For further distinguishing the long-run and short-run effects of these shocks, we apply the frequency-domain test and discover that these causalities are mainly found for long the run. Thus, investors and policy-makers may benefit from monitoring financial stress, especially under long-term extreme conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hong, Yanran & Li, Pan & Wang, Lu & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "New evidence of extreme risk transmission between financial stress and international crude oil markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:64:y:2023:i:c:s0275531922002392
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101853
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil; Financial stress index; Granger causality test; Extreme shocks; Time and frequency domains;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F39 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Other
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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