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Dynamic volatility spillover effect analysis between carbon market and crude oil market: a DCC-ICSS approach

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  • Lean Yu
  • Jingjing Li
  • Ling Tang

Abstract

This paper applies the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model and Iterative Cumulative Sums of Squares (ICSS) model to investigate the volatility spillover effect between carbon emission market and crude oil market. In particular, an effective time-varying correlation analysis method, i.e. DCC, is first conducted to capture the dynamic linkage relationship between the two markets. Then, the ICSS method is used to explore the structural changes of such spillover effect and further identify the impacts of the related events on the linkage mechanism. Using the European Union Allowance (EUA) futures price and Brent crude oil futures price as study samples, some interesting findings can be obtained from the empirical study: (a) there exists an obvious positive relationship between the EUA and Brent markets; (b) such dynamic spillover effect varies with time and becomes somewhat smaller in Phase III than Phase II and (c) economic events (e.g., the financial crises) and political changes would structurally change the dynamic linkage mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Lean Yu & Jingjing Li & Ling Tang, 2015. "Dynamic volatility spillover effect analysis between carbon market and crude oil market: a DCC-ICSS approach," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 38(4/5/6), pages 242-256.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijgeni:v:38:y:2015:i:4/5/6:p:242-256
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    Cited by:

    1. Khalfaoui, Rabeh, 2018. "Oil–gold time varying nexus: A time–frequency analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 86-104.
    2. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Miftah, Amal, 2019. "China's “New normal”: Will China's growth slowdown derail the BRICS stock markets?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 121-139.
    3. Liu, Xueyong & An, Haizhong & Huang, Shupei & Wen, Shaobo, 2017. "The evolution of spillover effects between oil and stock markets across multi-scales using a wavelet-based GARCH–BEKK model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 374-383.
    4. Ana Alzate-Ortega & Natalia Garzón & Jesús Molina-Muñoz, 2024. "Volatility Spillovers in Emerging Markets: Oil Shocks, Energy, Stocks, and Gold," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-19, January.
    5. He, Zhifang, 2020. "Dynamic impacts of crude oil price on Chinese investor sentiment: Nonlinear causality and time-varying effect," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 131-153.
    6. Zheng, Yan & Yin, Hua & Zhou, Min & Liu, Wenhua & Wen, Fenghua, 2021. "Impacts of oil shocks on the EU carbon emissions allowances under different market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    7. Huang, Wenyang & Wang, Huiwen & Wei, Yigang, 2023. "Identifying the determinants of European carbon allowances prices: A novel robust partial least squares method for open-high-low-close data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Jing Liu & Xin Ding & Xiaoqian Song & Tao Dong & Aiwen Zhao & Mi Tan, 2023. "Research on the Spillover Effect of China’s Carbon Market from the Perspective of Regional Cooperation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-17, January.
    9. Guo, Xiaozhu & Huang, Dengshi & Li, Xiafei & Liang, Chao, 2023. "Are categorical EPU indices predictable for carbon futures volatility? Evidence from the machine learning method," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 672-693.
    10. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "The responses of BRICS Equities to China's Slowdown: A Multi-Scale Causality Analysis," Working Papers hal-01880323, HAL.
    11. Yu, Lean & Li, Jingjing & Tang, Ling & Wang, Shuai, 2015. "Linear and nonlinear Granger causality investigation between carbon market and crude oil market: A multi-scale approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 300-311.
    12. Tian, Hu & Zheng, Xiaolong & Zeng, Daniel Danjun, 2019. "Analyzing the dynamic sectoral influence in Chinese and American stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
    13. Zhang, Weiping & Zhuang, Xintian & Wu, Dongmei, 2020. "Spatial connectedness of volatility spillovers in G20 stock markets: Based on block models analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    14. Hong, Yanran & Li, Pan & Wang, Lu & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "New evidence of extreme risk transmission between financial stress and international crude oil markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Duan, Kun & Ren, Xiaohang & Shi, Yukun & Mishra, Tapas & Yan, Cheng, 2021. "The marginal impacts of energy prices on carbon price variations: Evidence from a quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    16. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "The responses of BRICS Equities to China's Slowdown: A Multi-Scale Causality Analysis," Working Papers hal-01880323, HAL.
    17. Burak Korkusuz & David G. McMillan & Dimos Kambouroudis, 2023. "Complex network analysis of volatility spillovers between global financial indicators and G20 stock markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1517-1537, April.
    18. Wang, Xiong & Li, Jingyao & Ren, Xiaohang & Bu, Ruijun & Jawadi, Fredj, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and dynamic correlations in energy markets: Assessment and solutions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    19. Liu, Xueyong & An, Haizhong & Li, Huajiao & Chen, Zhihua & Feng, Sida & Wen, Shaobo, 2017. "Features of spillover networks in international financial markets: Evidence from the G20 countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 265-278.
    20. Hong, Yanran & Ma, Feng & Wang, Lu & Liang, Chao, 2022. "How does the COVID-19 outbreak affect the causality between gold and the stock market? New evidence from the extreme Granger causality test," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    21. Ren, Xiaohang & Li, Yiying & Qi, Yinshu & Duan, Kun, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of decomposed oil-price shocks on the EU carbon market dynamics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PB).
    22. Rao, Amar & Lucey, Brian & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Climate risk and carbon emissions: Examining their impact on key energy markets through asymmetric spillovers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    23. Zhang, Weiping & Zhuang, Xintian & Lu, Yang & Wang, Jian, 2020. "Spatial linkage of volatility spillovers and its explanation across G20 stock markets: A network framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

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