IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/116079.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Oil Market Shocks and Financial Instability in Asian Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Dagher, Leila
  • Hasanov, Fakhri

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between oil market shocks and financial instability in Asian countries using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) following Kilian’s (2009) methodology. Instability in the Asian financial markets is measured by the Financial Stress Index (FSI). Based on impulse response functions, the findings confirm that the source of an oil price shock (supply side or demand side) is extremely important to financial markets. When the oil price increases as a result of oil-specific demand shocks, the financial markets experience less stress. However, when the oil price increases as a result of oil-specific supply shocks, the financial markets experience increased stress. The findings of the study should be useful for international and domestic investors for portfolio diversification and other investment-production purposes, as well as for financial stability regulators and other monetary authorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Dagher, Leila & Hasanov, Fakhri, 2022. "Oil Market Shocks and Financial Instability in Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 116079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:116079
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/116079/1/MPRA_paper_116079.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, 2018. "How Does Stock Market Volatility React To Oil Price Shocks?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 666-682, April.
    2. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    3. Chengcheng Liu & Peng Song & Bai Huang, 2022. "Early-warning signals of risk contagion among global stock markets: evidence from community-level," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 338-345, February.
    4. Abhay Abhyankar, Bing Xu, and Jiayue Wang, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and the Stock Market: Evidence from Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    5. Qadan, Mahmoud & Nama, Hazar, 2018. "Investor sentiment and the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 42-58.
    6. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
    7. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2020. "Forecasting realized oil-price volatility: The role of financial stress and asymmetric loss," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    8. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    9. Gupta, Rangan & Modise, Mampho P., 2013. "Does the source of oil price shocks matter for South African stock returns? A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 825-831.
    10. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, volume 45, pages 65-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    11. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "China's slowdown and global financial market volatility: Is world growth losing out?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 164-175.
    12. Fang, Chung-Rou & You, Shih-Yi, 2014. "The impact of oil price shocks on the large emerging countries' stock prices: Evidence from China, India and Russia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 330-338.
    13. An, Hui & Wang, Hao & Delpachitra, Sarath & Cottrell, Simon & Yu, Xiao, 2022. "Early warning system for risk of external liquidity shock in BRICS countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).
    14. Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2011. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 660-671, May.
    15. Morana, Claudio, 2013. "Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 206-226.
    16. Choi, Kyongwook & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2010. "Volatility behavior of oil, industrial commodity and stock markets in a regime-switching environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4388-4399, August.
    17. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    18. Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 569-575, July.
    19. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    20. Mr. Subir Lall & Mr. Roberto Cardarelli & Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2009. "Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 2009/100, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
    22. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    23. Qin, Xiao, 2020. "Oil shocks and financial systemic stress: International evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    24. Park, Cyn-Young & Mercado, Rogelio V., 2014. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 199-224.
    25. Das, Debojyoti & Kumar, Surya Bhushan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hasim, Haslifah M., 2018. "On the relationship of gold, crude oil, stocks with financial stress: A causality-in-quantiles approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 169-174.
    26. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
    27. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2015. "Interactions between oil and financial markets — Do conditions of financial stress matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 160-175.
    28. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 54-78.
    29. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    30. Ravi Balakrishnan & Stephan Danninger & Selim Elekdag & Irina Tytell, 2011. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 40-68, May.
    31. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    32. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    33. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
    34. Bai, Shuming & Koong, Kai S., 2018. "Oil prices, stock returns, and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from China and the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 12-33.
    35. Kang, Wensheng & Perez de Gracia, Fernando & Ratti, Ronald A., 2017. "Oil price shocks, policy uncertainty, and stock returns of oil and gas corporations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 344-359.
    36. Mansour Ishrakieh, Layal & Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2020. "Not the usual suspects: Critical indicators in a dollarized country's Financial Stress Index," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    37. Liu, Renren & Chen, Jianzhong & Wen, Fenghua, 2021. "The nonlinear effect of oil price shocks on financial stress: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    38. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    39. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2010. "Do higher oil prices push the stock market into bear territory?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 490-495, March.
    40. Layal MansourIshrakieh & Leila Dagher & Sadika El Hariri, 2020. "A financial stress index for a highly dollarized developing country : The case of Lebanon," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(2), pages 43-52.
    41. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2012. "The Great Recession: US dynamics and spillovers to the world economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-13.
    42. Broadstock, David C. & Filis, George, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: New evidence from the United States and China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 417-433.
    43. Banerjee, Piyali & Arčabić, Vladimir & Lee, Hyejin, 2017. "Fourier ADL cointegration test to approximate smooth breaks with new evidence from Crude Oil Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 114-124.
    44. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2012. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding The Dynamics Of Oil Market Var Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1166-1188, October.
    45. Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 365-377.
    46. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1220-1239.
    47. Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2012. "A Unit Root Test Using a Fourier Series to Approximate Smooth Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(4), pages 574-599, August.
    48. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2018. "The impact of oil-market shocks on stock returns in major oil-exporting countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 264-280.
    49. Enders, Walter & Lee, Junsoo, 2012. "The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 196-199.
    50. Dovern, Jonas & van Roye, Björn, 2014. "International transmission and business-cycle effects of financial stress," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-17.
    51. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Oil prices and financial stress: A volatility spillover analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 278-288.
    52. Gupta, Rangan & Kanda, Patrick & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Time-varying predictability of oil market movements over a century of data: The role of US financial stress," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    53. Wei Dai & Apostolos Serletis, 2018. "Oil Price Shocks and the Credit Default Swap Market," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 283-293, April.
    54. Reboredo, Juan C. & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2016. "Do financial stress and policy uncertainty have an impact on the energy and metals markets? A quantile regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 284-298.
    55. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti, 2015. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock returns in China," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 23(4), pages 657-676, October.
    56. Mark Illing & Ying Liu, 2003. "An Index of Financial Stress for Canada," Staff Working Papers 03-14, Bank of Canada.
    57. Chen, Wang & Hamori, Shigeyuki & Kinkyo, Takuji, 2014. "Macroeconomic impacts of oil prices and underlying financial shocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-12.
    58. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2017. "A new approach to testing unemployment hysteresis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 1253-1280, November.
    59. Diaz, Elena Maria & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2017. "Oil price shocks and stock returns of oil and gas corporations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 75-80.
    60. Apostolakis, George N. & Floros, Christos & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Wohar, Mark, 2021. "Financial stress, economic policy uncertainty, and oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    61. Onur POLAT, 2018. "The Interaction between Oil Price and Financial Stress: Evidence from the U.S. Data," Fiscaoeconomia, Tubitak Ulakbim JournalPark (Dergipark), issue 3.
    62. Chunyan Hu & Xinheng Liu & Bin Pan & Bin Chen & Xiaohua Xia, 2018. "Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price Shock on Stock Market in China: A Combination Analysis Based on SVAR Model and NARDL Model," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(8), pages 1693-1705, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bilgili, Faik & Kassouri, Yacouba & Kuşkaya, Sevda & Majok Garang, Aweng Peter, 2024. "The dynamic nexus of oil price fluctuations and banking sector in China: A continuous wavelet analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Ganepola, Chanaka N. & Shubita, Moade & Lee, Lillian, 2023. "The electric shock: Causes and consequences of electricity prices in the United Kingdom," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Chen, Ning & Li, Shaofang & Lu, Shuai, 2023. "The extreme risk connectedness of the global financial system: G7 and BRICS evidence," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. Łukasz Markowski & Kamil Kotliński, 2023. "Renewables, Energy Mix and Inflation in the European Union Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-15, November.
    5. Sohag, Kazi & Kalina, Irina & Elsayed, Ahmed H., 2023. "Financial stress in Russia: Exploring the impact of oil market shocks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    6. Lu, Xunfa & He, Pengchao & Zhang, Zhengjun & Apergis, Nicholas & Roubaud, David, 2024. "Extreme co-movements between decomposed oil price shocks and sustainable investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    7. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Sohag, Kazi & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2024. "Oil shocks and financial stability in MENA countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Jun Fan & Lijuan Peng & Tinggui Chen & Guodong Cong, 2024. "The role of social impact on consumer attitudes toward green and healthy home appliances during the COVID-19 pandemic," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(11), pages 28063-28105, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    2. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(5), pages 85-130, September.
    3. Filippidis, Michail & Filis, George & Kizys, Renatas, 2020. "Oil price shocks and EMU sovereign yield spreads," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Ziadat, Salem Adel & McMillan, David G. & Herbst, Patrick, 2022. "Oil shocks and equity returns during bull and bear markets: The case of oil importing and exporting nations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Arampatzidis, Ioannis & Dergiades, Theologos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2021. "Oil and the U.S. stock market: Implications for low carbon policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    6. Das, Debojyoti & Maitra, Debasish & Dutta, Anupam & Basu, Sankarshan, 2022. "Financial stress and crude oil implied volatility: New evidence from continuous wavelet transformation framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    7. Ahmed H. Elsayed & Gareth Downing & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Xin Sheng, 2024. "Exploring the role of oil shocks on the financial stability of Gulf Cooperation Council countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1804-1819, April.
    8. Liu, Renren & Chen, Jianzhong & Wen, Fenghua, 2021. "The nonlinear effect of oil price shocks on financial stress: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    9. Hanif, Waqas & Hadhri, Sinda & El Khoury, Rim, 2024. "Quantile spillovers and connectedness between oil shocks and stock markets of the largest oil producers and consumers," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    10. Jiang, Yong & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2021. "Do credit conditions matter for the impact of oil price shocks on stock returns? Evidence from a structural threshold VAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-15.
    11. Huiming Zhu & Xianfang Su & Yawei Guo & Yinghua Ren, 2016. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from a Quantile Impulse Response Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-19, August.
    12. Wei, Yanfeng, 2019. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and China’s trade: A quantitative structural analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 20-31.
    13. Boldanov, Rustam & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2016. "Time-varying correlation between oil and stock market volatilities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 209-220.
    14. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Zhao, Wan-Li & Fan, Ying, 2020. "Modelling dynamic dependence and risk spillover between all oil price shocks and stock market returns in the BRICS," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    15. Apostolakis, George N. & Floros, Christos & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Wohar, Mark, 2021. "Financial stress, economic policy uncertainty, and oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    16. You, Wanhai & Guo, Yawei & Zhu, Huiming & Tang, Yong, 2017. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and industry stock returns in China: Asymmetric effects with quantile regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    17. Hong, Yanran & Li, Pan & Wang, Lu & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "New evidence of extreme risk transmission between financial stress and international crude oil markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    18. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2018. "The impact of oil-market shocks on stock returns in major oil-exporting countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 264-280.
    19. Singhal, Shelly & Ghosh, Sajal, 2016. "Returns and volatility linkages between international crude oil price, metal and other stock indices in India: Evidence from VAR-DCC-GARCH models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 276-288.
    20. Demirer, Rıza & Ferrer, Román & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "Oil price shocks, global financial markets and their connectedness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FSI; oil price; oil supply; Asian countries; SVAR; impulse response functions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:116079. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.