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Predictive power of web search behavior in five ASEAN stock markets

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  • Sifat, Imtiaz Mohammad
  • Thaker, Hassanudin Mohd Thas

Abstract

This paper investigates the predictive ability of web search behavior in connection with stock market returns and trading volume in five emerging economies in the ASEAN region using econometric and signal-processing techniques. More specifically, we use Vector Error Correction Model in conjunction with Wavelet analysis and find consistently low predictive ability of search activity in Google. In fact, investors in nearly all five markets appear to be interested in searching terms related to the market after high returns or high trading activities occur. In other words, high returns or high activities precede search interest. Our findings are at odds with the general results reported in earlier studies conducted in developed countries. Additionally, our analysis in the time-frequency domain detects a two-week lead-lag phenomenon in the association between search behavior and market returns for all markets but the Philippines.

Suggested Citation

  • Sifat, Imtiaz Mohammad & Thaker, Hassanudin Mohd Thas, 2020. "Predictive power of web search behavior in five ASEAN stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:52:y:2020:i:c:s0275531919307433
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101191
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    3. María José Ayala & Nicolás Gonzálvez-Gallego & Rocío Arteaga-Sánchez, 2024. "Google search volume index and investor attention in stock market: a systematic review," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-29, December.
    4. Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker, 2023. "COVID-19, Mobility, and Stock Markets Performance - Evidence From ASEAN-5," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 3(4), pages 1-6.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Google search; Investor attention; Trading volume; ASEAN; Emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • G53 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Financial Literacy

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