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Technical Analysis Profitability Without Data Snooping Bias: Evidence from Chinese Stock Market

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  • Fuwei Jiang
  • Guoshi Tong
  • Guokai Song

Abstract

We perform a comprehensive analysis on the profitability of a large number of technical analysis based trading rules in Chinese stock market. To counter data snooping bias, we employ a stepwise superior predictive ability test to identify genuinely profitable trading rules among more than 28,000 technical signals. Using 19 years of daily data on Chinese aggregate stock market return, we find substantial evidence on the profitability of technical trading rules measured by either the market timing ability or Sharpe ratio gain. Our results on the profitability of technical rules hold during different subperiods and remain valid under the presence of transaction costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Fuwei Jiang & Guoshi Tong & Guokai Song, 2019. "Technical Analysis Profitability Without Data Snooping Bias: Evidence from Chinese Stock Market," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 191-206, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:19:y:2019:i:1:p:191-206
    DOI: 10.1111/irfi.12161
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    Cited by:

    1. Chuang, O-Chia & Chuang, Hui-Ching & Wang, Zixuan & Xu, Jin, 2024. "Profitability of technical trading rules in the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Sifat, Imtiaz Mohammad & Thaker, Hassanudin Mohd Thas, 2020. "Predictive power of web search behavior in five ASEAN stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Kevin Rink, 2023. "The predictive ability of technical trading rules: an empirical analysis of developed and emerging equity markets," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 37(4), pages 403-456, December.
    4. I. Marta Miranda García & María‐Jesús Segovia‐Vargas & Usue Mori & José A. Lozano, 2023. "Early prediction of Ibex 35 movements," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 1150-1166, August.

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