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Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and its Application to Financial Market Surveillance

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  • Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau

Abstract

This paper reviews a number of different techniques for estimating default probabilities from the prices of publicly traded securities. These techniques are useful for assessing credit exposure, systemic risk, and stress testing financial systems. The choice of techniques was guided by their ease of implementation and their applicability to a wide cross-section of countries and markets. Simple one-period cases are studied to sharpen the reader's intuition, and the usefulness of each technique for enhancing financial surveillance is illustrated with real applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2006. "Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and its Application to Financial Market Surveillance," IMF Working Papers 2006/104, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/104
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Gulcan Yildirim Gungor & Tuba Pelin Sumer, 2020. "Alternative Approaches for Modelling Corporate Sector Credit Risk," CBT Research Notes in Economics 2017, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Miguel Sarmiento & Jorge Cely & Carlos León, 2015. "Monitoring the Unsecured Interbank Funds Market," Borradores de Economia 14080, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Kleinow, Jacob & Moreira, Fernando, 2016. "Systemic risk among European banks: A copula approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 27-42.
    5. David Xiao, 2023. "Default Process Modeling and Credit Valuation Adjustment," Papers 2309.03311, arXiv.org.
    6. Lee, David, 2023. "Default Forecasting and Credit Valuation Adjustment," MPRA Paper 118578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Dua, Pami & Kapur, Hema, 2018. "Macro stress testing and resilience assessment of Indian banking," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 452-475.
    8. Daniel Law & Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2015. "Assessing Default Risks for Chinese Firms: A Lost Cause?," IMF Working Papers 2015/140, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Sarmiento, Miguel & Cely, Jorge & León, Carlos, 2017. "An early warning indicator system to monitor the unsecured interbank funds market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 114-128.
    10. Jurevičienė Daiva & Rauličkis Darius, 2016. "Identification of Indicators’ Applicability to Settle Borrowers’ Probability of Default," Economics and Culture, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 53-64, June.
    11. Jonathan W. Welburn, 2020. "Crises Beyond Belief: Findings on Contagion, the Role of Beliefs, and the Eurozone Debt Crisis from a Borrower–Lender Game," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(2), pages 263-317, August.
    12. Ho, Sy Hoa, 2016. "Long and short-runs determinants of the sovereign CDS spread in emerging countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 579-590.
    13. Katherine Gleason & Steve Bright & Francis Martinez & Charles Taylor, 2017. "Europe's CoCos Provide a Lesson on Uncertainty," Working Papers 17-02, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    14. Andrene Senior & Sherene A. Bailey, 2017. "Estimación y pronóstico del riesgo de incumplimiento: evidencias para Jamaica," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 141-174, enero-jun.
    15. Mr. Amadou N Sy & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2006. "Distance-to-Default in Banking: A Bridge Too Far?," IMF Working Papers 2006/215, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Bales, Stephan, 2022. "Sovereign and bank dependence in the eurozone: A multi-scale approach using wavelet-network analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    17. Lemus, Antonio & Nuñez, Marco, 2020. "Pruebas de tensión bancaria: experiencia en los principales mercados financieros del mundo y en Chile [Bank stress tests: evidence from the main financial markets and Chile]," MPRA Paper 99097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Pami Dua & Hema Kapur, 2017. "Macro Stress Testing of Indian Bank Groups," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 11(4), pages 375-403, November.
    19. Ms. Luisa Zanforlin & Nobuyuki Kanazawa, 2014. "Market Signals and the Cost of Credit Risk Protection: An Analysis of CDS Settlement Auctions," IMF Working Papers 2014/239, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2014. "Updating the option implied probability of default methodology," Discussion Papers 43/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Andrene Senior & Sherene A. Bailey, 2017. "Estimating and Forecasting Default Risk: Evidence from Jamaica," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 133-162, January-J.

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