IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v92y2024icp1351-1360.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-term and long-term effects of Chinese and global economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks on Chinese tourism

Author

Listed:
  • Ma, Lujia
  • Zhu, Jiaji
  • Han, Wei

Abstract

This paper focuses on the short-term and long-term effects of Chinese and global economic policy uncertainties (CNEPU and GEPU) and geopolitical risks (CNGPR and GGPR) on the growth of inbound tourism in China. Using the ARDL and NARDL models as well as a monthly series of Chinese inbound tourism revenue and arrivals, we observed several interesting empirical findings. We find significant effects of CNGPR, GGPR and GEPU on the growth of inbound tourism in Hainan Province and even in China nationwide, while the impact of CNEPU is limited. Among these influencing variables, GEPU always has a significant long-term negative impact on inbound tourism growth (both revenue and arrivals). CNGPR has a significant short-term negative impact on inbound tourism growth in China nationwide; however, it has a significant long-term negative impact on inbound tourism growth in Hainan Province. In addition, the estimation results of the NARDL model further reveal the significant short-term effects of GEPU and GGPR on the growth of inbound tourism arrivals in Hainan Province and even in China nationwide, and these short-term effects are always significantly asymmetric. Specifically, the negative components of GGPR always influence the growth of inbound tourism arrivals more strongly. However, the positive components of GEPU influence inbound tourism arrivals more strongly in Hainan Province, but the negative components of GEPU influence the growth of inbound tourism arrivals more broadly in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma, Lujia & Zhu, Jiaji & Han, Wei, 2024. "Short-term and long-term effects of Chinese and global economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks on Chinese tourism," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1351-1360.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:92:y:2024:i:c:p:1351-1360
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.02.078
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056024001588
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2024.02.078?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Abebe Hailemariam & Kris Ivanovski, 2021. "The impact of geopolitical risk on tourism," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(22), pages 3134-3140, November.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Kisswani, Khalid M., 2021. "(A)symmetric time-varying effects of uncertainty fluctuations on oil price volatility: A nonlinear ARDL investigation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Jareño, Francisco & González, María de la O & Tolentino, Marta & Sierra, Karen, 2020. "Bitcoin and gold price returns: A quantile regression and NARDL analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    7. Yonghong Jiang & Gengyu Tian & Yiqi Wu & Bin Mo, 2022. "Impacts of geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainty on Chinese tourism‐listed company stock," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 320-333, January.
    8. Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2009. "Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Tanzania: An ARDL bounds testing approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 617-622, February.
    9. Ballantyne, Roy & Packer, Jan & Falk, John, 2011. "Visitors’ learning for environmental sustainability: Testing short- and long-term impacts of wildlife tourism experiences using structural equation modelling," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1243-1252.
    10. Xin Cui & Shouyu Yao & Zhenming Fang & Hua Wang, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty exposure and earnings management: evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 3937-3976, September.
    11. Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray, 2018. "Does economic policy uncertainty affect Tourism?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 15-17.
    12. Xin Zhao & Muhammad Saeed Meo & Tella Oluwatoba Ibrahim & Noshaba Aziz & Solomon Prince Nathaniel, 2023. "Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Pandemic Uncertainty on International Tourism: What do We Learn From COVID-19?," Evaluation Review, , vol. 47(2), pages 320-349, April.
    13. Wei, Yu & Bai, Lan & Li, Xiafei, 2022. "Normal and extreme interactions among nonferrous metal futures: A new quantile-frequency connectedness approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    14. Nepal, Rabindra & al Irsyad, M. Indra & Nepal, Sanjay Kumar, 2018. "Tourist arrivals, energy consumption and pollutant emissions in a developing economy–implications for sustainable tourism," Working Papers 2018-10, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    15. Sari, Ramazan & Ewing, Bradley T. & Soytas, Ugur, 2008. "The relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in the United States: An ARDL approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2302-2313, September.
    16. Sharif, Arshian & Aloui, Chaker & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices, stock market, geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the wavelet-based approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    17. Li, Xiafei & Wei, Yu, 2018. "The dependence and risk spillover between crude oil market and China stock market: New evidence from a variational mode decomposition-based copula method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 565-581.
    18. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Ferrer, Roman & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "Asymmetric determinants of CDS spreads: U.S. industry-level evidence through the NARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 211-230.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Siyue Chen & Yang Tan & Gengzhi Huang & Hongou Zhang & Hang Li, 2024. "China–ASEAN Tourism Economic Relationship Network: A Geopolitical Risk Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-23, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Huayi & Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2024. "Carbon volatility connectedness and the role of external uncertainties: Evidence from China," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    2. Zhang, Jiahao & Zhang, Yifeng & Wei, Yu & Wang, Zhuo, 2024. "Normal and extreme impact and connectedness between fossil energy futures markets and uncertainties: Does El Niño-Southern Oscillation matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 188-215.
    3. Umer Shahzad & Muhammad Ramzan & Muhammad Ibrahim Shah & Buhari DoÄŸan & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi, 2022. "Analyzing the Nexus Between Geopolitical Risk, Policy Uncertainty, and Tourist Arrivals: Evidence From the United States," Evaluation Review, , vol. 46(3), pages 266-295, June.
    4. Raheem, Ibrahim D. & le Roux, Sara, 2023. "Geopolitical risks and tourism stocks: New evidence from causality-in-quantile approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-7.
    5. Liang, Ruibin & Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan & Li, Xinran, 2024. "Multi-scale impacts of oil shocks on travel and leisure stocks: A MODWT-Bayesian TVP model with shrinkage approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    6. Osama D. Sweidan, 2023. "Geopolitical Risk and Income Inequality: Evidence from the US Economy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 575-597, September.
    7. Villanthenkodath, Muhammed Ashiq & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2021. "Does economic growth respond to electricity consumption asymmetrically in Bangladesh? The implication for environmental sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    8. Syed, Qasim Raza & Durani, Farah & Kisswani, Khalid M. & Alola, Andrew Adewale & Siddiqui, Aaliyah & Anwar, Ahsan, 2024. "Testing natural resource curse hypothesis amidst geopolitical risk: Global evidence using novel Fourier augmented ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    9. Michael McAleer & Ha Minh Nguyen & Ngoc Hoang Bui & Duc Hong Vo, 2019. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Vietnam," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 8, pages 350-361.
    10. Thorbecke, Willem, 2022. "Understanding the transmission of COVID-19 news to French financial markets in early 2020," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 103-114.
    11. Liang, Chao & Goodell, John W. & Li, Xiafei, 2024. "Impacts of carbon market and climate policy uncertainties on financial and economic stability: Evidence from connectedness network analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    12. Kamal, Javed Bin & Wohar, Mark & Kamal, Khaled Bin, 2022. "Do gold, oil, equities, and currencies hedge economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks during covid crisis?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    13. Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Kumar, Radika, 2013. "Effects of energy consumption on per worker output: A study of Kenya and South Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1187-1193.
    14. Foglia, Matteo & Palomba, Giulio & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Disentangling the geopolitical risk and its effects on commodities. Evidence from a panel of G8 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    15. Xiafei Li & Yu Wei & Xiaodan Chen & Feng Ma & Chao Liang & Wang Chen, 2022. "Which uncertainty is powerful to forecast crude oil market volatility? New evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4279-4297, October.
    16. Ben Salem, Leila & Nouira, Ridha & Jeguirim, Khaled & Rault, Christophe, 2022. "The determinants of crude oil prices: Evidence from ARDL and nonlinear ARDL approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Sweidan, Osama D. & Elbargathi, Khadiga, 2023. "Economic diversification in Saudi Arabia: Comparing the impact of oil prices, geopolitical risk, and government expenditures," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 13-24.
    18. Bouzgarrou, Houssam & Ftiti, Zied & Louhichi, Waël & Yousfi, Mohamed, 2023. "What can we learn about the market reaction to macroeconomic surprise? Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Anna A. Gainetdinova, 2023. "Asymmetric Impact of Geopolitical Risk and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Russian Ruble Exchange Rate," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 22(2), pages 270-293.
    20. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2010. "Multivariate Granger causality between electricity generation, exports, prices and GDP in Malaysia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 3640-3648.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:92:y:2024:i:c:p:1351-1360. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.