IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp15666.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Determinants of Crude Oil Prices: Evidence from ARDL and Nonlinear ARDL Approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Salem, Leila Ben

    (University of Sousse)

  • Nouira, Ridha

    (University of Sousse)

  • Jeguirim, Khaled

    (Monastir University)

  • Rault, Christophe

    (University of Orléans)

Abstract

This paper is an innovative attempt to empirically investigate the determinants of crude oil prices. The main objective is to distinguish between short- and long-term effects of some covariates on oil prices. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is applied to daily series spanning the period from January 2, 2003, to May 24, 2021, to analyze long-run relationships and short-run dynamics. The paper also focuses on the asymmetric effects of covariates and a nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) approach is used to explore this asymmetry. The use of an asymmetric error correction model with asymmetric cointegration provides new insights for examining the determinants of oil prices. All investigations of underlying oil price fluctuations are examined both before and in the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results, based on different econometric specifications, have key policy implications for policymakers both with and without COVID-19 potential considerations.

Suggested Citation

  • Salem, Leila Ben & Nouira, Ridha & Jeguirim, Khaled & Rault, Christophe, 2022. "The Determinants of Crude Oil Prices: Evidence from ARDL and Nonlinear ARDL Approaches," IZA Discussion Papers 15666, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15666
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp15666.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a safe haven or a hedge for the US dollar? Implications for risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2665-2676.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2003. "Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 10032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Dees, Stephane & Karadeloglou, Pavlos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Sanchez, Marcelo, 2007. "Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 178-191, January.
    4. Brémond, Vincent & Hache, Emmanuel & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Does OPEC still exist as a cartel? An empirical investigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 125-131.
    5. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2012. "Commodity volatility breaks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 395-422.
    6. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Nonlinearities And The Macroeconomic Effects Of Oil Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 364-378, November.
    7. Jing Quan, 1992. "Two‐step testing procedure for price discovery role of futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 139-149, April.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    9. Kisswani, Khalid M., 2021. "(A)symmetric time-varying effects of uncertainty fluctuations on oil price volatility: A nonlinear ARDL investigation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    10. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2017. "Dynamics of crude oil and gold price post 2008 global financial crisis – New evidence from threshold vector error-correction model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 358-365.
    11. Robert K. Kaufmann, Stephane Dees, Pavlos Karadeloglou and Marcelo Sanchez, 2004. "Does OPEC Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 67-90.
    12. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    13. Paul R. Krugman, 1980. "Oil and the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 0554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Wang, Yu Shan & Chueh, Yen Ling, 2013. "Dynamic transmission effects between the interest rate, the US dollar, and gold and crude oil prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 792-798.
    15. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2011. "Does Euro or Dollar Pegging Impact the Real Exchange Rate? The Case of Oil and Commodity Currencies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9), pages 1557-1592, September.
    16. Claudiu Albulescu, 2020. "Coronavirus and oil price crash," Papers 2003.06184, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    17. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    18. A.F Alhajji & David Huettner, 2000. "OPEC and World Crude Oil Markets from 1973 to 1994: Cartel, Oligopoly, or Competitive?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 31-60.
    19. An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Fang, Wei & Ding, Yinghui & Zhong, Weiqiong, 2014. "Research on patterns in the fluctuation of the co-movement between crude oil futures and spot prices: A complex network approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1067-1075.
    20. Kumar, Suresh & Choudhary, Sangita & Singh, Gurcharan & Singhal, Shelly, 2021. "Crude oil, gold, natural gas, exchange rate and indian stock market: Evidence from the asymmetric nonlinear ARDL model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    21. Yang, Lu, 2019. "Connectedness of economic policy uncertainty and oil price shocks in a time domain perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 219-233.
    22. Aloui, Riadh & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen M., 2016. "Uncertainty and crude oil returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 92-100.
    23. Mr. Noureddine Krichene, 2005. "A Simultaneous Equations Model for World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Markets," IMF Working Papers 2005/032, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Jan Bentzen, 2007. "Does OPEC influence crude oil prices? Testing for co-movements and causality between regional crude oil prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(11), pages 1375-1385.
    25. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2014. "Dynamic Spillovers of Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp166, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    26. Chkili, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Volatility forecasting and risk management for commodity markets in the presence of asymmetry and long memory," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-18.
    27. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers of oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 433-447.
    28. Mensi, Walid & Sensoy, Ahmet & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Impact of COVID-19 outbreak on asymmetric multifractality of gold and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    29. Atri, Hanen & Kouki, Saoussen & Gallali, Mohamed imen, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 news, panic and media coverage on the oil and gold prices: An ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    30. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Bradford, Andrew & Belanger, Laura H. & Mclaughlin, John P. & Miki, Yosuke, 2008. "Determinants of OPEC production: Implications for OPEC behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 333-351, March.
    31. Loutia, Amine & Mellios, Constantin & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2016. "Do OPEC announcements influence oil prices?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 262-272.
    32. Lin, Boqiang & Bai, Rui, 2021. "Oil prices and economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from global, oil importers, and exporters’ perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    33. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2009. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 838-851, November.
    34. Apergis, Nicholas & Cooray, Arusha, 2015. "Asymmetric interest rate pass-through in the U.S., the U.K. and Australia: New evidence from selected individual banks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 155-172.
    35. Kumar, Satish, 2017. "On the nonlinear relation between crude oil and gold," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 219-224.
    36. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Ullman, Ben, 2009. "Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals: Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 550-558, July.
    37. S. Gurcan Gulen, 1997. "Regionalization in the World Crude Oil Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 109-126.
    38. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Fan, Ying & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "Spillover effect of US dollar exchange rate on oil prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 973-991.
    39. Khalid M. Kisswani & Arezou Harraf & Amjad M. Kisswani, 2019. "Revisiting the effects of oil prices on exchange rate: asymmetric evidence from the ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 279-300, August.
    40. Chao Liang & Yu Wei & Xiafei Li & Xuhui Zhang & Yifeng Zhang, 2020. "Uncertainty and crude oil market volatility: new evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(27), pages 2945-2959, May.
    41. Khurram Shehzad & Umer Zaman & Xiaoxing Liu & Jarosław Górecki & Carlo Pugnetti, 2021. "Examining the Asymmetric Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Global Financial Crisis on Dow Jones and Oil Price Shock," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-13, April.
    42. Mark, Joy, 2011. "Gold and the US dollar: Hedge or haven?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 120-131, September.
    43. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2016. "Quantile dependence of oil price movements and stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 33-49.
    44. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a hedge or safe haven against oil price movements?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 130-137.
    45. Hailemariam, Abebe & Smyth, Russell & Zhang, Xibin, 2019. "Oil prices and economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from a nonparametric panel data model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 40-51.
    46. Josué M. Polanco-Martínez & Luis M. Abadie, 2016. "Analyzing Crude Oil Spot Price Dynamics versus Long Term Future Prices: A Wavelet Analysis Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nour Fakhreddine & Noura Najia & Abbas Mourad & Wafaa Nasser, 2024. "Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price on Economic Activity: Evidence from Lebanon Using NARDL Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 258-266, March.
    2. Kirikkaleli, Dervis, 2023. "Resource efficiency, energy productivity, and environmental quality in Japan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    3. Tsitouras Antonis & Tsounis Nicholas, 2024. "Military Outlays and Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Disaggregated Analysis for a Developed Economy," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 30(3), pages 341-391.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kaushik Ranjan Bandyopadhyay, 2022. "Oil and Gas Markets and COVID-19: A Critical Rumination on Drivers, Triggers, and Volatility," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, April.
    2. Apostolakis, George N. & Floros, Christos & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Wohar, Mark, 2021. "Financial stress, economic policy uncertainty, and oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    3. Scarcioffolo, Alexandre R. & Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2021. "Regime-switching energy price volatility: The role of economic policy uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 336-356.
    4. Wang, Yilei & Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty respond to the global oil price fluctuations? Evidence from BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Rasool Dehghanzadeh Shahabad & Mehmet Balcilar, 2022. "Modelling the Dynamic Interaction between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Commodity Prices in India: The Dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-21, May.
    6. Sheng Cheng & Wei Liu & Qisheng Jiang & Yan Cao, 2023. "Multi–Scale Risk Connectedness Between Economic Policy Uncertainty of China and Global Oil Prices in Time–Frequency Domains," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 1593-1616, April.
    7. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu, 2020. "Coronavirus and oil price crash," Working Papers hal-02507184, HAL.
    8. Golitsis, Petros & Gkasis, Pavlos & Bellos, Sotirios K., 2022. "Dynamic spillovers and linkages between gold, crude oil, S&P 500, and other economic and financial variables. Evidence from the USA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    9. Le, Thai-Ha & Le, Anh Tu & Le, Ha-Chi, 2021. "The historic oil price fluctuation during the Covid-19 pandemic: What are the causes?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    10. Gong, Mengqi & You, Zhe & Wang, Longle & Ruan, Dapeng, 2024. "Research of the non-linear dynamic relationship between global economic policy uncertainty and crude oil prices," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    11. Ioannis Dokas & Georgios Oikonomou & Minas Panagiotidis & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2023. "Macroeconomic and Uncertainty Shocks’ Effects on Energy Prices: A Comprehensive Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-35, February.
    12. Xiafei Li & Yu Wei & Xiaodan Chen & Feng Ma & Chao Liang & Wang Chen, 2022. "Which uncertainty is powerful to forecast crude oil market volatility? New evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4279-4297, October.
    13. Yanhong Feng & Dilong Xu & Pierre Failler & Tinghui Li, 2020. "Research on the Time-Varying Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Crude Oil Price Fluctuation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-24, August.
    14. Liu, Xiaoqin & Wojewodzki, Michal & Cai, Yifei & Sharma, Satish, 2023. "The dynamic relationships between carbon prices and policy uncertainties," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    15. Salisu, Afees A. & Adediran, Idris, 2020. "Gold as a hedge against oil shocks: Evidence from new datasets for oil shocks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    16. Al Rousan, Sahel & Sbia, Rashid & Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur, 2018. "A dynamic network analysis of the world oil market: Analysis of OPEC and non-OPEC members," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 28-41.
    17. Assaf, Ata & Charif, Husni & Mokni, Khaled, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness between uncertainty and energy markets: Do investor sentiments matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    18. Golombek, Rolf & Irarrazabal, Alfonso A. & Ma, Lin, 2018. "OPEC's market power: An empirical dominant firm model for the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 98-115.
    19. Zhang, Feng & Huang, Yongming & Nan, Xiaoli, 2022. "The price volatility of natural resource commodity and global economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from US economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. Aimer, Najmi & Lusta, Abdulmula, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of oil shocks on economic policy uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonlinear ARDL; ARDL; crude oil price; symmetric and asymmetric; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15666. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.