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The impact of geopolitical risk on tourism

Author

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  • Abebe Hailemariam
  • Kris Ivanovski

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the impact of geopolitical risk on the demand for tourism service export. Using structural VAR model and U.S. monthly data from January 1999 to August 2020, we find that geopolitical risk has a negative and significant impact on tourism service exports. Our results reveal that, in the long-run, a one-standard-deviation shock in geopolitical risk shock explains about 12.6% of the variations in tourism net service exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Abebe Hailemariam & Kris Ivanovski, 2021. "The impact of geopolitical risk on tourism," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(22), pages 3134-3140, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rcitxx:v:24:y:2021:i:22:p:3134-3140
    DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2021.1876644
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pan, Lijun & Wang, Yangjie & Sun, Xiaofei & Sadiq, Muhammad & Dagestani, Abd Alwahed, 2023. "Natural resources: A determining factor of geopolitical risk in Russia? Revisiting conflict-based perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    2. Uju Violet Alola & Darya Baeva & Andrew Adewale Alola, 2023. "Determining the (A)symmetric Role of Business–Consumer Confidence in Outward–Inward Tourism in Russia: A Competitiveness Perspective," International Journal of Global Business and Competitiveness, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 22-34, June.
    3. Osama D. Sweidan, 2023. "Geopolitical Risk and Income Inequality: Evidence from the US Economy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 575-597, September.
    4. Ma, Lujia & Zhu, Jiaji & Han, Wei, 2024. "Short-term and long-term effects of Chinese and global economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks on Chinese tourism," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1351-1360.
    5. Gu, Xiao & Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Ali, Shahid & Khan, Zeeshan & Zhang, Changyong & Uktamov, Khusniddin Fakhriddinovich, 2023. "Nonlinear impact of natural resources and risk factors on the U.S. economic growth," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Osama D. Sweidan, 2024. "The geopolitics of technology: Evidence from the interaction between the United States and China," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 10(2), pages 130-150, July.
    7. Osama D. Sweidan, 2023. "The Effect of Geopolitical Risk on Income Inequality: Evidence from a Panel Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 47-66, June.
    8. Katarzyna Czernek-MarszaÅ‚ek & Dagmara Wójcik & Patrycja Juszczyk & PaweÅ‚ Piotrowski & Brendan Richard, 2024. "Turning crisis into chances: Tourism entrepreneurs’ timing strategies amidst emergencies," Journal of Entrepreneurship, Management and Innovation, Fundacja Upowszechniająca Wiedzę i Naukę "Cognitione", vol. 20(3), pages 78-103.
    9. Sudeshna Ghosh & Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo, 2024. "The effect of world policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk factors on export-led growth for Japan: novel insights by wavelet local multiple correlation methods," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 3605-3633, August.
    10. Sweidan, Osama D. & Elbargathi, Khadiga, 2023. "Economic diversification in Saudi Arabia: Comparing the impact of oil prices, geopolitical risk, and government expenditures," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 13-24.
    11. Duc Hong Vo & Minh Phuoc-Bao Tran, 2023. "Do geopolitical risks from the economic powers dominate world gold return? Evidence from the quantile connectedness approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4661-4688, December.
    12. Herman Suzana, 2023. "Dynamic Common Correlated Effects of Geopolitical Risk on International Tourism Arrivals," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 23(2), pages 132-149, December.
    13. Raheem, Ibrahim D. & le Roux, Sara, 2023. "Geopolitical risks and tourism stocks: New evidence from causality-in-quantile approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-7.
    14. Liang, Ruibin & Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan & Li, Xinran, 2024. "Multi-scale impacts of oil shocks on travel and leisure stocks: A MODWT-Bayesian TVP model with shrinkage approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    15. Zhang, Jialin & Shi, Shaodong, 2023. "Extraction of natural resources and geopolitical risk revisited: A novel perspective of research and development with financial development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).

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