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Does flattening the curve make a difference? An investigation of the COVID-19 pandemic based on an SIR model

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Listed:
  • Qiu, Hong
  • Wang, Qian
  • Wu, Qun
  • Zhou, Hongyong

Abstract

We use a susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) model to examine the impacts of different isolation measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The model predicts that strong isolation measures in the early stage of the pandemic can not only delay the time for the number of infections and deaths to reach the peak but also greatly reduce the cumulative number of infections and deaths. We verify the model predictions by using the simulation and the data of the COVID-19 cases. The results are independent of the joint distribution of the fatality rate and the initial number of active cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiu, Hong & Wang, Qian & Wu, Qun & Zhou, Hongyong, 2022. "Does flattening the curve make a difference? An investigation of the COVID-19 pandemic based on an SIR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 159-165.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:80:y:2022:i:c:p:159-165
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.063
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "How Deadly is COVID-19? Understanding the Difficulties with Estimation of its Fatality Rate," Staff Report 598, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    2. Barua, Suborna, 2020. "Understanding Coronanomics: The economic implications of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic," MPRA Paper 99693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Postnikov, Eugene B., 2020. "Estimation of COVID-19 dynamics “on a back-of-envelope”: Does the simplest SIR model provide quantitative parameters and predictions?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; SIR model; Isolation measures; Infections; Deaths;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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