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The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammed A. Yildirim

    (Center for International Development at Harvard University)

  • Cem Cakmakli
  • Selva Demiralp
  • Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
  • Sevcan Yesiltas

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic had a devastating effect on both lives and livelihoods in 2020. The arrival of effective vaccines can be a major game-changer. However, vaccines are in short supply as of early 2021 and most of them are reserved for the advanced economies. We show that the global GDP loss of not inoculating all the countries, relative to a counterfactual of global vaccinations, is higher than the cost of manufacturing and distributing vaccines globally. We use an economic-epidemiological framework that combines a SIR model with international production and trade networks. Based on this framework, we estimate the costs for 65 countries and 35 sectors. Our estimates suggest that up to 49 percent of the global economic costs of the pandemic in 2021 are borne by the advanced economies even if they achieve universal vaccination in their own countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammed A. Yildirim & Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Sevcan Yesiltas, 2021. "The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks," Growth Lab Working Papers 169, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    • Handle: RePEc:glh:wpfacu:169
    as

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    File URL: https://growthlab.cid.harvard.edu/files/growthlab/files/2021-01-cid-faculty-wp-390-global_vaccinations.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Sectoral Infection Dynamics; Globalization; International I-O Linkages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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