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A simulation of the simple Mohring model to predict patronage and value of resources consumed for enhanced bus services

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  • Clifton, Geoffrey T.
  • Rose, John M.

Abstract

Choosing between the competing approaches to providing enhanced bus services requires the ability to predict the effects on patronage and overall benefits to society in terms of Value of Resources Consumed (VRC) of any proposed change. One common approach uses the Mohring model of 1972 and its successors to optimise one or more aspects of the supply of transit services given various level of demand. This paper simulates the operation of a simple circular bus route using the equations of a basic Mohring type model and a Decision Support System (DSS) to endogenise demand under the assumption that there is a fixed demand for travel but commuters can choose between the bus and private vehicle. The selected approach recognises that demand for a particular mode of travel is predicated on the speed of the vehicle in service which is itself determined by the demand for that vehicle (in this model or boarding and alighting time) rather than being determined exogenously. This creates an iterative feedback mechanism whereby changes to the attributes of the bus and car alter mode choice and the speed in service of the bus which, in turn, alters mode choice. The simulation is used to predict changes to patronage and VRC under scenarios regarding changes to the transport network (in terms of fares and running costs, frequency and spacing of bus stops) using parameters from both a Multinomial Logit (MNL) and a Mixed Multinomial Logit (MMNL). The results demonstrate that there are large differences in the size and, in some cases, direction of predicted changes to patronage, VRC and revenue, depending on whether the parameters of the MNL or MMNL model are used.

Suggested Citation

  • Clifton, Geoffrey T. & Rose, John M., 2013. "A simulation of the simple Mohring model to predict patronage and value of resources consumed for enhanced bus services," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 259-269.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:39:y:2013:i:1:p:259-269
    DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2012.06.023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sergio R. Jara-Díaz & Antonio Gschwender, 2003. "From the Single Line Model to the Spatial Structure of Transit Services: Corridors or Direct?," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 37(2), pages 261-277, May.
    2. Tirachini, Alejandro & Hensher, David A., 2011. "Bus congestion, optimal infrastructure investment and the choice of a fare collection system in dedicated bus corridors," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 828-844, June.
    3. Mohring, Herbert, 1972. "Optimization and Scale Economies in Urban Bus Transportation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 591-604, September.
    4. Currie, Graham & Rose, John, 2008. "Growing patronage - Challenges and what has been found to work," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 5-11, January.
    5. Hensher, David A. & Rose, John M., 2007. "Development of commuter and non-commuter mode choice models for the assessment of new public transport infrastructure projects: A case study," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 428-443, June.
    6. Sergio Jara-Díaz & Antonio Gschwender, 2003. "Towards a general microeconomic model for the operation of public transport," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 453-469, July.
    7. Hess, Stephane & Rose, John M., 2009. "Allowing for intra-respondent variations in coefficients estimated on repeated choice data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 708-719, July.
    8. David Hensher & William Greene, 2003. "The Mixed Logit model: The state of practice," Transportation, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 133-176, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Clifton, Geoffrey T. & Mulley, Corinne, 2016. "A historical overview of enhanced bus services in Australian cities: What has been tried, what has worked?," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 11-25.
    2. Bar-Yosef, Asaf & Martens, Karel & Benenson, Itzhak, 2013. "A model of the vicious cycle of a bus line," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 37-50.

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