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Estimating the impacts of financing support policies towards photovoltaic market in Indonesia: A social-energy-economy-environment (SE3) model simulation

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Abstract

This study estimates the impacts of four solar energy policy interventions on the photovoltaic (PV) market potential, government expenditure, economic growth, and the environment. An agent-based model is developed to capture the specific economic and institutional features of developing economies, citing Indonesia as a specific case study. We undertake a novel approach to energy modelling by combining energy system analysis, input-output analysis, life-cycle analysis, and socio-economic analysis to obtain a comprehensive and integrated impact assessment. Our results, after sensitivity analysis, call for abolishing the existing PV grant policy in the Indonesian rural electrification programs. The government, instead, should encourage the PV industry to improve production efficiency and to provide after-sales service. A 100-watt peak (Wp) PV under this policy is affordable for 33.2 percent of rural households without electricity access in 2010. Rural PV market size potentially increases to 82.4 percent with rural financing institutions lending 70 percent of capital cost for five years at 12 percent annual interest rate. Additional 30 percent capital subsidy and 5 percent interest subsidy slightly increase the rural PV market potential to 89.6 percent of PV adopters. However, the subsidies are crucial for creating PV demands by urban households but the most effective policy for promoting PV to urban households is the net metering scheme. Several policy proposals are discussed in response to these findings.

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  • al Irsyad, M. Indra & Halog, Anthony & Nepal, Rabindra, 2018. "Estimating the impacts of financing support policies towards photovoltaic market in Indonesia: A social-energy-economy-environment (SE3) model simulation," Working Papers 2018-09, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tas:wpaper:28893
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    2. Zhang, Haoran & Yan, Jinyue & Yu, Qing & Obersteiner, Michael & Li, Wenjing & Chen, Jinyu & Zhang, Qiong & Jiang, Mingkun & Wallin, Fredrik & Song, Xuan & Wu, Jiang & Wang, Xin & Shibasaki, Ryosuke, 2021. "1.6 Million transactions replicate distributed PV market slowdown by COVID-19 lockdown," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    3. Victoria Kihlström & Jörgen Elbe, 2021. "Constructing Markets for Solar Energy—A Review of Literature about Market Barriers and Government Responses," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Abba, Z.Y.I. & Balta-Ozkan, N. & Hart, P., 2022. "A holistic risk management framework for renewable energy investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Zhou, Na & Wu, Qiaosheng & Hu, Xiangping & Xu, Deyi & Wang, Xiaolin, 2020. "Evaluation of Chinese natural gas investment along the Belt and Road Initiative using super slacks-based measurement of efficiency method," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Juana Castro & Stefan Drews & Filippos Exadaktylos & Joël Foramitti & Franziska Klein & Théo Konc & Ivan Savin & Jeroen van den Bergh, 2020. "A review of agent‐based modeling of climate‐energy policy," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), July.
    7. Ye, Li & Dang, Yaoguo & Fang, Liping & Wang, Junjie, 2023. "A nonlinear interactive grey multivariable model based on dynamic compensation for forecasting the economy-energy-environment system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    8. Liu, Jicheng & Lin, Xiangmin, 2019. "Empirical analysis and strategy suggestions on the value-added capacity of photovoltaic industry value chain in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 356-366.
    9. Hidayatno, Akhmad & Setiawan, Andri D. & Wikananda Supartha, I Made & Moeis, Armand O. & Rahman, Irvanu & Widiono, Eddie, 2020. "Investigating policies on improving household rooftop photovoltaics adoption in Indonesia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 731-742.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    hybrid energy model; developing country; renewables policy; impact assessments; agent-based modelling; photovoltaic system;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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