IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v57y2016icp1359-1372.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wind power reliability valuation in a Hydro-Dominated power market: The Colombian case

Author

Listed:
  • Cuervo, Felipe Isaza
  • Botero, Sergio Botero

Abstract

The design of market mechanisms that remunerates the reliability provided by a generator in a power market is a task that aims to ensure the normal operation of the system. For the case of a Hydro-Dominated system, when wind power is introduced and operated under the Merit-Order-Effect, it is possible to assess the effect of the displacement of hydro generation due to wind generation over the system׳s reliability in terms of firm energy; taking this into account a model that valuates the firm energy provided by wind power in a hydro-dominated system is proposed. This model considers the effect of wind power over the system׳s reservoirs and the market price of electricity; and valuates the firm energy as the net savings of the system related to the increase in the firm energy of the system when wind power is introduced. The results show that wind power under Merit-Order-Effect increases the firm energy of the system, and decreases the market price of electricity, being the net savings in comparison to the corresponding hydro-only system the reliability income that should be perceived by the wind power generator.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuervo, Felipe Isaza & Botero, Sergio Botero, 2016. "Wind power reliability valuation in a Hydro-Dominated power market: The Colombian case," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1359-1372.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:57:y:2016:i:c:p:1359-1372
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.12.159
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032115015427
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2015.12.159?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Walter Vergara & Alejandro Deeb & Natsuko Toba & Peter Cramton & Irene Leino, 2010. "Wind Energy in Colombia : A Framework for Market Entry," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2493.
    2. Detert, Neal & Kotani, Koji, 2013. "Real options approach to renewable energy investments in Mongolia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 136-150.
    3. Madlener, Reinhard & Stoverink, Simon, 2012. "Power plant investments in the Turkish electricity sector: A real options approach taking into account market liberalization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 124-134.
    4. Voorspools, Kris R. & D'haeseleer, William D., 2006. "An analytical formula for the capacity credit of wind power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 45-54.
    5. Benitez, Liliana E. & Benitez, Pablo C. & van Kooten, G. Cornelis, 2008. "The economics of wind power with energy storage," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1973-1989, July.
    6. Wen, Jiang & Zheng, Yan & Donghan, Feng, 2009. "A review on reliability assessment for wind power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(9), pages 2485-2494, December.
    7. Zimny, Jacek & Michalak, Piotr & Bielik, Sebastian & Szczotka, Krzysztof, 2013. "Directions in development of hydropower in the world, in Europe and Poland in the period 1995–2011," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 117-130.
    8. Roques, Fabien & Hiroux, Céline & Saguan, Marcelo, 2010. "Optimal wind power deployment in Europe--A portfolio approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3245-3256, July.
    9. Fuss, Sabine & Szolgayová, Jana & Khabarov, Nikolay & Obersteiner, Michael, 2012. "Renewables and climate change mitigation: Irreversible energy investment under uncertainty and portfolio effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 59-68.
    10. Rangel, Luiz Fernando, 2008. "Competition policy and regulation in hydro-dominated electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1292-1302, April.
    11. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    12. Botero B, Sergio & Isaza C, Felipe & Valencia, Adriana, 2010. "Evaluation of methodologies for remunerating wind power's reliability in Colombia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(7), pages 2049-2058, September.
    13. Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Marnay, Chris & Wiser, Ryan H., 2007. "Real options valuation of US federal renewable energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 265-279, January.
    14. Batlle, Carlos & Pérez-Arriaga, Ignacio J., 2008. "Design criteria for implementing a capacity mechanism in deregulated electricity markets," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 184-193, September.
    15. Ausubel, Lawrence M. & Cramton, Peter, 2010. "Using forward markets to improve electricity market design," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 195-200, December.
    16. Fuss, Sabine & Johansson, Daniel J.A. & Szolgayova, Jana & Obersteiner, Michael, 2009. "Impact of climate policy uncertainty on the adoption of electricity generating technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 733-743, February.
    17. Sensfuß, Frank & Ragwitz, Mario & Genoese, Massimo, 2008. "The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3076-3084, August.
    18. Willems, Bert & Morbee, Joris, 2010. "Market completeness: How options affect hedging and investments in the electricity sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 786-795, July.
    19. Cramton, Peter & Stoft, Steven, 2008. "Forward reliability markets: Less risk, less market power, more efficiency," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 194-201, September.
    20. Mulder, Machiel & Scholtens, Bert, 2013. "The impact of renewable energy on electricity prices in the Netherlands," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 94-100.
    21. Venetsanos, Konstantinos & Angelopoulou, Penelope & Tsoutsos, Theocharis, 2002. "Renewable energy sources project appraisal under uncertainty: the case of wind energy exploitation within a changing energy market environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 293-307, March.
    22. Huang, Yun-Hsun & Wu, Jung-Hua, 2008. "A portfolio risk analysis on electricity supply planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 627-641, February.
    23. Yuksel, I., 2010. "As a renewable energy hydropower for sustainable development in Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 3213-3219, December.
    24. Davis, Graham A. & Owens, Brandon, 2003. "Optimizing the level of renewable electric R&D expenditures using real options analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(15), pages 1589-1608, December.
    25. Hu, Yu & Solana, Pablo, 2013. "Optimization of a hybrid diesel-wind generation plant with operational options," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 364-372.
    26. Carta, J.A. & Ramírez, P. & Velázquez, S., 2009. "A review of wind speed probability distributions used in wind energy analysis: Case studies in the Canary Islands," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 933-955, June.
    27. Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2010. "Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1391-1402.
    28. Drake, Ben & Hubacek, Klaus, 2007. "What to expect from a greater geographic dispersion of wind farms?--A risk portfolio approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3999-4008, August.
    29. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    30. Bengtsson, Jens, 2001. "Manufacturing flexibility and real options: A review," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1-3), pages 213-224, December.
    31. Lee, Shun-Chung, 2011. "Using real option analysis for highly uncertain technology investments: The case of wind energy technology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4443-4450.
    32. Robert S. Pindyck, 1984. "Uncertainty in the Theory of Renewable Resource Markets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 51(2), pages 289-303.
    33. Kjaerland, Frode, 2007. "A real option analysis of investments in hydropower--The case of Norway," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5901-5908, November.
    34. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    35. Weigt, Hannes, 2009. "Germany's wind energy: The potential for fossil capacity replacement and cost saving," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(10), pages 1857-1863, October.
    36. Chade Ricosti, Juliana F. & Sauer, Ildo L., 2013. "An assessment of wind power prospects in the Brazilian hydrothermal system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 742-753.
    37. Margrabe, William, 1978. "The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 177-186, March.
    38. Jaramillo, O.A. & Borja, M.A. & Huacuz, J.M., 2004. "Using hydropower to complement wind energy: a hybrid system to provide firm power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1887-1909.
    39. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    40. Boccard, Nicolas, 2010. "Economic properties of wind power: A European assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3232-3244, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Machado, Renato Haddad Simões & Rego, Erik Eduardo & Udaeta, Miguel Edgar Morales & Nascimento, Viviane Tavares, 2022. "Estimating the adequacy revenue considering long-term reliability in a renewable power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    2. Bamooeifard, Alireza, 2020. "Future studies in Iran development plans for wind power, a system dynamics modeling approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1054-1064.
    3. León-Vargas, Fabian & García-Jaramillo, Maira & Krejci, Edwing, 2019. "Pre-feasibility of wind and solar systems for residential self-sufficiency in four urban locations of Colombia: Implication of new incentives included in Law 1715," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1082-1091.
    4. Gómez-Navarro, Tomás & Ribó-Pérez, David, 2018. "Assessing the obstacles to the participation of renewable energy sources in the electricity market of Colombia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 131-141.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Felipe Isaza Cuervo & Sergio Botero Boterob, 2014. "Aplicación de las opciones reales en la toma de decisiones en los mercados de electricidad," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
    2. Kozlova, Mariia, 2017. "Real option valuation in renewable energy literature: Research focus, trends and design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 180-196.
    3. Lee, Shun-Chung & Shih, Li-Hsing, 2010. "Renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model -- The case of Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 67-78, September.
    4. Lin, Boqiang & Wesseh, Presley K., 2013. "Valuing Chinese feed-in tariffs program for solar power generation: A real options analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 474-482.
    5. Balibrea-Iniesta, José & Rodríguez-Monroy, Carlos & Núñez-Guerrero, Yilsy María, 2021. "Economic analysis of the German regulation for electrical generation projects from biogas applying the theory of real options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    6. Sim, Jaehun & Kim, Chae-Soo, 2019. "The value of renewable energy research and development investments with default consideration," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 530-539.
    7. Zhang, Mingming & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Peng, 2014. "A real option model for renewable energy policy evaluation with application to solar PV power generation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 944-955.
    8. Zhang, Mingming & Liu, Liyun & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn, 2020. "Valuing investment decisions of renewable energy projects considering changing volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    9. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, P. & Zhou, D.Q., 2016. "A real options model for renewable energy investment with application to solar photovoltaic power generation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 213-226.
    10. Fernandes, Bartolomeu & Cunha, Jorge & Ferreira, Paula, 2011. "The use of real options approach in energy sector investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4491-4497.
    11. Martín-Barrera, Gonzalo & Zamora-Ramírez, Constancio & González-González, José M., 2016. "Application of real options valuation for analysing the impact of public R&D financing on renewable energy projects: A company′s perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 292-301.
    12. Lee, Shun-Chung & Shih, Li-Hsing, 2011. "Enhancing renewable and sustainable energy development based on an options-based policy evaluation framework: Case study of wind energy technology in Taiwan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 2185-2198, June.
    13. Lee, Shun-Chung, 2011. "Using real option analysis for highly uncertain technology investments: The case of wind energy technology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4443-4450.
    14. José Balibrea-Iniesta, 2020. "Economic Analysis of Renewable Energy Regulation in France: A Case Study for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Real Options," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    15. Carmen Schiel & Simon Glöser-Chahoud & Frank Schultmann, 2019. "A real option application for emission control measures," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 89(3), pages 291-325, April.
    16. Assereto, Martina & Byrne, Julie, 2021. "No real option for solar in Ireland: A real option valuation of utility scale solar investment in Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    17. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    18. Jeon, Chanwoong & Lee, Jeongjin & Shin, Juneseuk, 2015. "Optimal subsidy estimation method using system dynamics and the real option model: Photovoltaic technology case," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 33-43.
    19. Das Gupta, Supratim, 2018. "Using real options to study the impact of capacity additions and investment expenditures in renewable energies in India," MPRA Paper 90441, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Nunes, Luis Eduardo & Lima, Marcus Vinicius Andrade de & Davison, Matthew & Leite, André Luis da Silva, 2021. "Switch and defer option in renewable energy projects: Evidences from Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:57:y:2016:i:c:p:1359-1372. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.