IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v35y2010i3p1391-1402.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory

Author

Listed:
  • Zhu, Lei
  • Fan, Ying

Abstract

This paper applies portfolio theory to evaluate China's 2020-medium-term plans for generating technologies and its generating portfolio. With reference to the risk of relevant generating-cost streams, the paper discusses China's future development of efficient (Pareto optimal) generating portfolios that enhance energy security in different scenarios, including CO2-emission-constrained scenarios. This research has found that the future adjustment of China's planned 2020 generating portfolio can reduce the portfolio's cost risk through appropriate diversification of generating technologies, but a price will be paid in the form of increased generating cost. In the CO2-emission-constrained scenarios, the generating-cost risk of China's planned 2020 portfolio is even greater than that of the 2005 portfolio, but increasing the proportion of nuclear power in the generating portfolio can reduce the cost risk effectively. For renewable-power generation, because of relatively high generating costs, it will be necessary to obtain stronger policy support to promote renewable-power development.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2010. "Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1391-1402.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:35:y:2010:i:3:p:1391-1402
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2009.11.024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544209005131
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2009.11.024?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Awerbuch, Shimon & Yang, Spencer, 2007. "Efficient electricity generating portfolios for Europe: maximising energy security and climate change mitigation," EIB Papers 7/2007, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    2. Vine, Edward & Mills, Evan & Chen, Allan, 2000. "Energy-efficiency and renewable energy options for risk management and insurance loss reduction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 131-147.
    3. Leo Schrattenholzer & Asami Miketa & Keywan Riahi & Richard Alexander Roehrl, 2004. "Achieving a Sustainable Global Energy System," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3508.
    4. Lund, Henrik, 2007. "Renewable energy strategies for sustainable development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 912-919.
    5. Roques, Fabien A. & Newbery, David M. & Nuttall, William J., 2008. "Fuel mix diversification incentives in liberalized electricity markets: A Mean-Variance Portfolio theory approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1831-1849, July.
    6. Bolinger, Mark & Wiser, Ryan, 2006. "A comparative analysis of business structures suitable for farmer-owned wind power projects in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(14), pages 1750-1761, September.
    7. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    8. H. Brett Humphreys & Katherine T. McClain, 1998. "Reducing the Impacts of Energy Price Volatility Through Dynamic Portfolio Selection," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 107-131.
    9. Hoogwijk, Monique & van Vuuren, Detlef & de Vries, Bert & Turkenburg, Wim, 2007. "Exploring the impact on cost and electricity production of high penetration levels of intermittent electricity in OECD Europe and the USA, results for wind energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1381-1402.
    10. Bolinger, Mark & Wiser, Ryan & Milford, Lew & Stoddard, Michael & Porter, Kevin, 2001. "States Emerge as Clean Energy Investors: A Review of State Support for Renewable Energy," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 82-95, November.
    11. Afgan, Naim H. & Carvalho, Maria G., 2002. "Multi-criteria assessment of new and renewable energy power plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 739-755.
    12. Ramanathan, R, 2001. "Comparative Risk Assessment of energy supply technologies: a Data Envelopment Analysis approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 197-203.
    13. Bar-Lev, Dan & Katz, Steven, 1976. "A Portfolio Approach to Fossil Fuel Procurement in the Electric Utility Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 933-947, June.
    14. Burgherr, Peter & Hirschberg, Stefan, 2008. "Severe accident risks in fossil energy chains: A comparative analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 538-553.
    15. Awerbuch, Shimon & Deehan, William, 1995. "Do consumers discount the future correctly? : A market-based valuation of residential fuel switching," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 57-69, January.
    16. Bolinger, Mark & Wiser, Ryan & Golove, William, 2006. "Accounting for fuel price risk when comparing renewable to gas-fired generation: the role of forward natural gas prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 706-720, April.
    17. Krey, Volker & Martinsen, Dag & Wagner, Hermann-Josef, 2007. "Effects of stochastic energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2340-2349.
    18. Bolinger, Mark & Wiser, Ryan & Fitzgerald, Garrett, 2005. "An Overview of Investments by State Renewable Energy Funds in Large-Scale Renewable Generation Projects," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 78-84.
    19. Awerbuch, Shimon, 1995. "Market-based IRP: It's easy!!!," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 50-67, April.
    20. Weisser, Daniel, 2007. "A guide to life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from electric supply technologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1543-1559.
    21. Boris Krey & Peter Zweifel, 2006. "Efficient Electricity Portfolios for Switzerland and the United States," SOI - Working Papers 0602, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    22. Awerbuch, Shimon, 1993. "The surprising role of risk in utility integrated resource planning," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 20-33, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kitzing, Lena, 2014. "Risk implications of renewable support instruments: Comparative analysis of feed-in tariffs and premiums using a mean–variance approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 495-505.
    2. Marrero, Gustavo A. & Puch, Luis A. & Ramos-Real, Francisco J., 2015. "Mean-variance portfolio methods for energy policy risk management," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 246-264.
    3. Locatelli, Giorgio & Mancini, Mauro, 2011. "Large and small baseload power plants: Drivers to define the optimal portfolios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7762-7775.
    4. Roques, Fabien A. & Newbery, David M. & Nuttall, William J., 2008. "Fuel mix diversification incentives in liberalized electricity markets: A Mean-Variance Portfolio theory approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1831-1849, July.
    5. Zhang, Mingming & Tang, Yamei & Liu, Liyun & Zhou, Dequn, 2022. "Optimal investment portfolio strategies for power enterprises under multi-policy scenarios of renewable energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    6. deLlano-Paz, Fernando & Calvo-Silvosa, Anxo & Antelo, Susana Iglesias & Soares, Isabel, 2017. "Energy planning and modern portfolio theory: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 636-651.
    7. Allan, Grant & Eromenko, Igor & McGregor, Peter & Swales, Kim, 2011. "The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach incorporating marine technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 6-22, January.
    8. Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Development of cogeneration in Germany: A mean-variance portfolio analysis of individual technology’s prospects in view of the new regulatory framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5301-5313.
    9. repec:ers:journl:v:xv:y:2012:i:sie:p:3-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Fuss, Sabine & Szolgayová, Jana & Khabarov, Nikolay & Obersteiner, Michael, 2012. "Renewables and climate change mitigation: Irreversible energy investment under uncertainty and portfolio effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 59-68.
    11. Ruangpattana, Suriya & Preckel, Paul V. & Gotham, Douglas J. & Muthuraman, Kumar & Velástegui, Marco & Morin, Thomas L. & Uhan, Nelson A., 2012. "Diversification of fuel costs accounting for load variation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 400-408.
    12. Meunier, Guy, 2013. "Risk aversion and technology mix in an electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 866-874.
    13. Arash Farnoosh, 2016. "On the economic optimization of national power generation mix in Iran: A Markowitz' portfolio-based approach," Working Papers hal-02475534, HAL.
    14. Guy Meunier, 2014. "Risk Aversion and Technology Portfolios," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 44(4), pages 347-365, June.
    15. deLlano-Paz, Fernando & Calvo-Silvosa, Anxo & Iglesias Antelo, Susana & Soares, Isabel, 2015. "The European low-carbon mix for 2030: The role of renewable energy sources in an environmentally and socially efficient approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 49-61.
    16. Roques, Fabien & Hiroux, Céline & Saguan, Marcelo, 2010. "Optimal wind power deployment in Europe--A portfolio approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3245-3256, July.
    17. Fridgen, Gilbert & Halbrügge, Stephanie & Olenberger, Christian & Weibelzahl, Martin, 2020. "The insurance effect of renewable distributed energy resources against uncertain electricity price developments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    18. Zhang, Shuang & Zhao, Tao & Xie, Bai-Chen, 2018. "What is the optimal power generation mix of China? An empirical analysis using portfolio theory," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 522-536.
    19. Delarue, Erik & De Jonghe, Cedric & Belmans, Ronnie & D'haeseleer, William, 2011. "Applying portfolio theory to the electricity sector: Energy versus power," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 12-23, January.
    20. Madlener, Reinhard & Wenk, Christioph, 2008. "Efficient Investment Portfolios for the Swiss Electricity Supply Sector," FCN Working Papers 2/2008, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    21. Marrero, Gustavo A. & Ramos-Real, Francisco Javier, 2010. "Electricity generation cost in isolated system: The complementarities of natural gas and renewables in the Canary Islands," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 2808-2818, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:35:y:2010:i:3:p:1391-1402. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.