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An assessment of wind power prospects in the Brazilian hydrothermal system

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  • Chade Ricosti, Juliana F.
  • Sauer, Ildo L.

Abstract

Despite the need to reduce greenhouse gases, thermoelectric power plants were the main winners in electricity auctions held until 2009. This study evaluates the possibility of improving the prospects of increasing the clean and renewable energy mix. The new official energy plan for 2030, prepared for the Brazilian Government by the Energy Research Company (EPE11The abbreviation in Portuguese for Empresa de Pesquisa Energética.), forecasts a relative increase in thermal generation using natural gas, coal and nuclear energy. In contrast to this plan, this study considers wind generation as a complement to hydropower rather than fossil and nuclear energy. Previously, the analysis of seasonal complementarities in Brazil between average inflow hydraulic energy (ANAh) and average inflow wind energy (ANAw) has been generally focused on an intra-annual period. However, in this study, an initial effort is made to analyze the multiannual complementarities of the two sources. The wind technology learning curve in Brazil and worldwide was investigated, and the results show the potential of competitiveness of wind power compared with other sources, such as nuclear power, gas and coal. The replacement of thermal-based expansion by wind power was simulated by a comparative analysis of the net present value (NPV) of fuel, operation, maintenance and capital costs, including the potential learning time, of both scenarios. The NPV results indicate that the total costs of wind generation represent 57% of the total thermal costs, showing its potential attractiveness and that it facilitates the reduction of the emission of greenhouse gases. Taking into account the population and the stabilization of energy demand in the 2040s, the possibility of meeting the energy demand of Brazil through renewable and sustainable energy sources, mainly hydropower and wind power, is demonstrated.

Suggested Citation

  • Chade Ricosti, Juliana F. & Sauer, Ildo L., 2013. "An assessment of wind power prospects in the Brazilian hydrothermal system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 742-753.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:19:y:2013:i:c:p:742-753
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2012.11.010
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    Cited by:

    1. Johannes Schmidt & Rafael Cancella & Amaro Olímpio Pereira Junior, 2014. "Combing windpower and hydropower to decrease seasonal and inter-annual availability of renewable energy sources in Brazil," Working Papers 562014, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Institute for Sustainable Economic Development.
    2. repec:zbw:inwedp:562014 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Cuervo, Felipe Isaza & Botero, Sergio Botero, 2016. "Wind power reliability valuation in a Hydro-Dominated power market: The Colombian case," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1359-1372.
    4. Liu, Xi & Du, Huibin & Brown, Marilyn A. & Zuo, Jian & Zhang, Ning & Rong, Qian & Mao, Guozhu, 2018. "Low-carbon technology diffusion in the decarbonization of the power sector: Policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 344-356.
    5. Hans Christian Gils & Sonja Simon & Rafael Soria, 2017. "100% Renewable Energy Supply for Brazil—The Role of Sector Coupling and Regional Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, November.
    6. Zhang, Yi & Cheng, Chuntian & Cao, Rui & Li, Gang & Shen, Jianjian & Wu, Xinyu, 2021. "Multivariate probabilistic forecasting and its performance’s impacts on long-term dispatch of hydro-wind hybrid systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    7. Malagueta, Diego & Szklo, Alexandre & Borba, Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar & Soria, Rafael & Aragão, Raymundo & Schaeffer, Roberto & Dutra, Ricardo, 2013. "Assessing incentive policies for integrating centralized solar power generation in the Brazilian electric power system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 198-212.
    8. Wen, Xin & Sun, Yuanliang & Tan, Qiaofeng & Tang, Zhengyang & Wang, Zhenni & Liu, Zhehua & Ding, Ziyu, 2022. "Optimizing the sizes of wind and photovoltaic plants complementarily operating with cascade hydropower stations: Balancing risk and benefit," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    9. Sonja Simon & Tobias Naegler & Hans Christian Gils, 2018. "Transformation towards a Renewable Energy System in Brazil and Mexico—Technological and Structural Options for Latin America," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-26, April.
    10. Schmidt, Johannes & Cancella, Rafael & Junior, Amaro Olímpio Pereira, 2016. "The effect of windpower on long-term variability of combined hydro-wind resources: The case of Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 131-141.
    11. Azizipanah-Abarghooee, Rasoul & Niknam, Taher & Bina, Mohammad Amin & Zare, Mohsen, 2015. "Coordination of combined heat and power-thermal-wind-photovoltaic units in economic load dispatch using chance-constrained and jointly distributed random variables methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 50-67.
    12. Mastropietro, Paolo & Batlle, Carlos & Barroso, Luiz A. & Rodilla, Pablo, 2014. "Electricity auctions in South America: Towards convergence of system adequacy and RES-E support," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 375-385.
    13. Schmidt, Johannes & Cancella, Rafael & Pereira, Amaro O., 2016. "An optimal mix of solar PV, wind and hydro power for a low-carbon electricity supply in Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 137-147.
    14. Cantão, Mauricio P. & Bessa, Marcelo R. & Bettega, Renê & Detzel, Daniel H.M. & Lima, João M., 2017. "Evaluation of hydro-wind complementarity in the Brazilian territory by means of correlation maps," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1215-1225.
    15. Juárez, Alberto Aquino & Araújo, Alex Maurício & Rohatgi, Janardan Singh & de Oliveira Filho, Oyama Douglas Queiroz, 2014. "Development of the wind power in Brazil: Political, social and technical issues," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 828-834.
    16. José V. P. Miguel & Eliane A. Fadigas & Ildo L. Sauer, 2019. "The Influence of the Wind Measurement Campaign Duration on a Measure-Correlate-Predict (MCP)-Based Wind Resource Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-15, September.
    17. Ávila, Leandro & Mine, Miriam R.M & Kaviski, Eloy & Detzel, Daniel H.M., 2021. "Evaluation of hydro-wind complementarity in the medium-term planning of electrical power systems by joint simulation of periodic streamflow and wind speed time series: A Brazilian case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 685-699.
    18. Hunt, Julian David & Freitas, Marcos Aurélio Vasconcelos & Pereira Junior, Amaro Olímipio, 2014. "Enhanced-Pumped-Storage: Combining pumped-storage in a yearly storage cycle with dams in cascade in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 513-523.
    19. Schmidt, Johannes & Cancella, Rafael & Junior, Amaro Olímpio Pereira, 2014. "Combing windpower and hydropower to decrease seasonal and inter-annual availability of renewable energy sources in Brazil," Discussion Papers DP-56-2014, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Institute for Sustainable Economic Development.
    20. Nilton Bispo Amado & Erick Del Bianco Pelegia & Ildo Luís Sauer, 2021. "Capacity Value from Wind and Solar Sources in Systems with Variable Dispatchable Capacity—An Application in the Brazilian Hydrothermal System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, May.

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