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A semiparametric model for electricity spot prices

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  • Raimund Kovacevic
  • David Wozabal

Abstract

This article proposes a semiparametric single-index model for short-term forecasting day-ahead electricity prices. The approach captures the dependency of electricity prices on covariates, such as demand for electricity, amount of energy produced by intermittent sources, and weather-dependent variables. To obtain parsimonious models, principal component analysis is used for dimension reduction. The approach is tested on two data sets from different markets and its performance is analyzed in terms of fit, forecast quality, and computational efficiency. The results are encouraging, in that the proposed method leads to a good in-sample fit and performs well out-of-sample compared with four benchmark models, including a SARIMA model as well as a functional nonparametric regression approach recently proposed in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Raimund Kovacevic & David Wozabal, 2014. "A semiparametric model for electricity spot prices," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 344-356.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:uiiexx:v:46:y:2014:i:4:p:344-356
    DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2013.803640
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Pape & Oliver Woll & Christoph Weber, "undated". "Estimating the value of flexibility from real options: On the accuracy of hybrid electricity price models," EWL Working Papers 1804, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics.
    2. Shao, Zhen & Gao, Fei & Yang, Shan-Lin & Yu, Ben-gong, 2015. "A new semiparametric and EEMD based framework for mid-term electricity demand forecasting in China: Hidden characteristic extraction and probability density prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 876-889.
    3. Kuppelwieser, Thomas & Wozabal, David, 2021. "Liquidity costs on intraday power markets: Continuous trading versus auctions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    4. Christian Pape & Arne Vogler & Oliver Woll & Christoph Weber, 2017. "Forecasting the distributions of hourly electricity spot prices," EWL Working Papers 1705, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised May 2017.

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