The carbon sequestration potential of vegetation over the Tibetan Plateau

Ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are strategically important natural resources of China. However, whether the regional vegetation would continue to sequester more carbon over the coming decades and how much stocks could be delivered through improved management are not clear. In this study, the vegetation carbon stocks in 2020 (VCS2020) and carbon sequestration potential (VCSpot) were evaluated by integrating 2040 field-plots data at the plant community level and models (Forest Carbon Sequestration Model and Random Forest Model). Results showed that the VCS2020 was 1965.6 Tg, with 78.5 % stored in forests, 9.7 % in shrubs, and 11.7 % in grasslands. The VCSpot was projected to be 458.3 Tg C from 2020 to 2060, with an average rate of 11.5 Tg C yr−1, and existing forests, afforestation, and grasslands accounting for 79.3 %, 18.5 %, and 2.2 %, respectively. The rate of VCSpot (RVCS) from afforestation is increasing gradually and becomes a substantial contributor of VCSpot from 2020 to 2060, especially in the southeastern parts of the TP. The VCSpot would offset 31.0 % of anthropogenic carbon emissions over the TP during 2020–2060. Therefore, this study proposes that the implementation of appropriate regulation for existing forests and scientific use of suitable areas for afforestation could help achieving the carbon neutrality target at the regional and even national scale in the future.