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Energy use and emissions scenarios for transport to gauge progress toward national commitments

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  • Schmitz Gonçalves, Daniel Neves
  • Goes, George Vasconcelos
  • de Almeida D'Agosto, Márcio
  • Albergaria de Mello Bandeira, Renata

Abstract

To achieve the mitigation targets discussed under the Paris Agreement, countries must develop studies that not only estimate baselines based on historical data of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy use, but that also project them considering different levels of ambition and political commitment. This study aims to develop and model scenarios of energy use and GHG emissions from the transport sector until 2030, considering the Brazilian Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Three scenarios were developed based on different political commitment. The method is based on a bottom-up approach, requiring multi-sectoral collaborative efforts to not only explain the direct energy use, but also balance the transportation activity and energy between the transport modes, justifying each case in terms of development stage and energy supply capacity. Here, transport sector has been further split up into the highest sector level detail available. At the maximum, GHG emissions could be reduced by 15% (29 Mt CO2e), achieved in scenario 3, whilst there are increases on emissions in scenario 2 (5% or 10 Mt CO2e) and scenario 1 (21% or 42 Mt CO2e). It implies that Brazil has the potential to ratchet up the mitigation targets discussed under the Paris Agreement of the UNFCCC.

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  • Schmitz Gonçalves, Daniel Neves & Goes, George Vasconcelos & de Almeida D'Agosto, Márcio & Albergaria de Mello Bandeira, Renata, 2019. "Energy use and emissions scenarios for transport to gauge progress toward national commitments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:135:y:2019:i:c:s0301421519305841
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110997
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    1. Goes, George Vasconcelos & Schmitz Gonçalves, Daniel Neves & de Almeida D’Agosto, Márcio & de Mello Bandeira, Renata Albergaria & Grottera, Carolina, 2020. "Transport-energy-environment modeling and investment requirements from Brazilian commitments," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 303-311.
    2. George Vasconcelos Goes & Daniel Neves Schmitz Gonçalves & Márcio Almeida D’Agosto & Emilio Lèbre Rovere & Renata Albergaria Mello Bandeira, 2020. "MRV framework and prospective scenarios to monitor and ratchet up Brazilian transport mitigation targets," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2197-2217, October.
    3. Daniel Neves Schmitz Gonçalves & Renata Albergaria de Mello Bandeira & Mariane Gonzalez da Costa & George Vasconcelos Goes & Tássia Faria de Assis & Márcio de Almeida D’Agosto & Isabela Rocha Pombo Le, 2020. "A Multitier Approach to Estimating the Energy Efficiency of Urban Passenger Mobility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Grottera, Carolina & Naspolini, Giovanna Ferrazzo & La Rovere, Emilio Lèbre & Schmitz Gonçalves, Daniel Neves & Nogueira, Tainan de Farias & Hebeda, Otto & Dubeux, Carolina Burle Schmidt & Goes, Georg, 2022. "Energy policy implications of carbon pricing scenarios for the Brazilian NDC implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Carolina Grottera & Giovanna Ferrazzo Naspolini & Emilio Lèbre La Rovere & Daniel Neves Schmitz Gonçalves & Tainan de Farias Nogueira & Otto Hebeda & Carolina Burle Schmidt Dubeux & George Vasconcelos, 2022. "Energy policy implications of carbon pricing scenarios for the Brazilian NDC implementation," Post-Print hal-03791419, HAL.
    6. Vlad-Cosmin Bulai & Alexandra Horobet & Oana Cristina Popovici & Lucian Belascu & Sofia Adriana Dumitrescu, 2021. "A VaR-Based Methodology for Assessing Carbon Price Risk across European Union Economic Sectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-21, December.

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