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China's green deal: Can China's cement industry achieve carbon neutral emissions by 2060?

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  • Dinga, Christian Doh
  • Wen, Zongguo

Abstract

The cement industry emits 8% of global CO2 emissions. Representing over 50% of these emissions, China's Cement Industry (CCI) will play a key role towards achieving CO2 emission peak and Carbon neutrality. This study designed a bottom-up Green Transition Roadmap model to assess the feasibility of China's newly proposed goal – achieve Carbon neutrality by 2060. Six emission abatement measures are explored under three scenarios based on green transition policies. Random sampling of uncertainty factors is also performed to investigate their effects on decarbonization roadmaps. Finally, GAINS model and abatement cost curves are used to monetize decarbonization co-benefits. Results show that: (1) Achieving Carbon neutrality in CCI by 2060 is ambitious but possible under advanced and aggressive abatement scenarios, with a net cumulative cost of 279–345 billion CNY after deducing monetized co-benefits; (2) Uncertainties significantly upset decarbonization roadmapsas it takes an additional 4–6 years to achieve the same emission reductions compared to deterministic scenarios; (3) Circular economy should be prioritized in the roadmap since it is least costly and contributes 33.6% of CO2 emission abatement; (4) From 52-technologies assessed, 10-technologies account for 75% of abatement potential brought by advanced efficiency technology measure. Most are calcination process technologies, reflecting the urgency to target this emission intensive process; (5) Realizing Carbon neutrality brings huge co-benefits in energy saving and pollutant reduction. Specifically, fossil energy, PM, NOx and SO2 intensities drop by 65%, 48%, 64% and 92% in 2060 respectively. Therefore, policy-makers can resort to deep decarbonization to reach stringent air pollution standards.

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  • Dinga, Christian Doh & Wen, Zongguo, 2022. "China's green deal: Can China's cement industry achieve carbon neutral emissions by 2060?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:155:y:2022:i:c:s1364032121011965
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2021.111931
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Feng Dong & Guoqing Li & Yajie Liu & Qing Xu & Caixia Li, 2023. "Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Cross-Industry Synergy of Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Key Industries in the City in Jiangsu Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-27, February.
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    3. Lee, Hwarang, 2023. "Decarbonization strategies for steel production with uncertainty in hydrogen direct reduction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    4. Zhou, Yi & Zhou, Wenji & Wei, Chu, 2023. "Environmental performance of the Chinese cement enterprise: An empirical analysis using a text-based directional vector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    5. Doh Dinga, Christian & Wen, Zongguo, 2022. "Many-objective optimization of energy conservation and emission reduction under uncertainty: A case study in China's cement industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    6. Wang, Yihan & Zhang, Lanxin & Wen, Zongguo & Chen, Chen & Cao, Xin & Doh Dinga, Christian, 2023. "Optimization of the sustainable production pathways under multiple industries and objectives: A study of China's three energy- and emission-intensive industries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    7. Li, Guohao & Chen, Xue & You, Xue-yi, 2023. "System dynamics prediction and development path optimization of regional carbon emissions: A case study of Tianjin," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).

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