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Developing a probabilistic tool for assessing the risk of overheating in buildings for future climates

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  • Jenkins, David P.
  • Patidar, Sandhya
  • Banfill, Phil
  • Gibson, Gavin

Abstract

The effect of projected climate change on building performance is currently a growing research area. Building designers and architects are becoming more concerned that buildings designed for the current climate might not provide adequate working and living environments in the coming decades. Advice is needed to guide how existing buildings might be adapted to cope with this future climate, as well as guidance for new building design to reduce the chances of the building failing in the future. The Low Carbon Futures Project, as part of the Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC) programme in the UK, is looking at methods of integrating the latest climate projections from the UK Climate Impact Programme (UKCIP) into building simulation procedures. The main obstacle to this objective is that these projections are probabilistic in nature; potentially thousands of equally-probably climate-years can be constructed that describe just a single scenario. The project is therefore developing a surrogate procedure that will use regression techniques to assimilate this breadth of climate information into the building simulation process.

Suggested Citation

  • Jenkins, David P. & Patidar, Sandhya & Banfill, Phil & Gibson, Gavin, 2014. "Developing a probabilistic tool for assessing the risk of overheating in buildings for future climates," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 7-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:61:y:2014:i:c:p:7-11
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2012.04.035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peacock, A.D. & Jenkins, D.P. & Kane, D., 2010. "Investigating the potential of overheating in UK dwellings as a consequence of extant climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3277-3288, July.
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    1. Gourlis, Georgios & Kovacic, Iva, 2017. "Passive measures for preventing summer overheating in industrial buildings under consideration of varying manufacturing process loads," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1175-1185.
    2. Heracleous, Chryso & Michael, Aimilios, 2018. "Assessment of overheating risk and the impact of natural ventilation in educational buildings of Southern Europe under current and future climatic conditions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 1228-1239.
    3. Dodoo, Ambrose & Gustavsson, Leif, 2016. "Energy use and overheating risk of Swedish multi-storey residential buildings under different climate scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 534-548.

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