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Very short-term wind power forecasting with neural networks and adaptive Bayesian learning

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  • Blonbou, Ruddy

Abstract

This article presents an adaptive very short-term wind power prediction scheme that uses an artificial neural network as predictor along with adaptive Bayesian learning and Gaussian process approximation. A set of recent wind speed measurements samples composes the predictor’s inputs. The predictor’s parameters are adaptively optimized so that, at a given time t, its outputs approximate the future values of the generated electrical power. An evaluation of this prediction scheme was conducted for two tests cases; the predictor was set to simultaneously estimate the values of the wind power for the following prediction horizons: 5min, 10min and 15min for test case n°1 and for the test case n°2, the prediction horizons were 10min, 20min and 30min. The neural predictor performs better than the persistent model for both test cases. Moreover, the Bayesian framework also permits to predict, for a specified level of probability, the interval within which the generated power should be observed.

Suggested Citation

  • Blonbou, Ruddy, 2011. "Very short-term wind power forecasting with neural networks and adaptive Bayesian learning," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1118-1124.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:36:y:2011:i:3:p:1118-1124
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2010.08.026
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    11. Samuel Atuahene & Yukun Bao & Yao Yevenyo Ziggah & Patricia Semwaah Gyan & Feng Li, 2018. "Short-Term Electric Power Forecasting Using Dual-Stage Hierarchical Wavelet- Particle Swarm Optimization- Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System PSO-ANFIS Approach Based On Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    12. Marvuglia, Antonino & Messineo, Antonio, 2012. "Monitoring of wind farms’ power curves using machine learning techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 574-583.
    13. Doucoure, Boubacar & Agbossou, Kodjo & Cardenas, Alben, 2016. "Time series prediction using artificial wavelet neural network and multi-resolution analysis: Application to wind speed data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 202-211.
    14. Cheng, William Y.Y. & Liu, Yubao & Bourgeois, Alfred J. & Wu, Yonghui & Haupt, Sue Ellen, 2017. "Short-term wind forecast of a data assimilation/weather forecasting system with wind turbine anemometer measurement assimilation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 340-351.
    15. Jung, Jaesung & Broadwater, Robert P., 2014. "Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 762-777.
    16. Qin, Li & Liu, Shi & Kang, Yi & Yan, Song An & Inaki Schlaberg, H. & Wang, Zhan, 2019. "Wind velocity distribution reconstruction using CFD database with Tucker decomposition and sensor measurement," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 1236-1250.
    17. Niu, Xinsong & Wang, Jiyang, 2019. "A combined model based on data preprocessing strategy and multi-objective optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 519-539.
    18. Hu, Jianming & Wang, Jianzhou & Ma, Kailiang, 2015. "A hybrid technique for short-term wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 563-574.
    19. Pei Du & Yu Jin & Kequan Zhang, 2016. "A Hybrid Multi-Step Rolling Forecasting Model Based on SSA and Simulated Annealing—Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization for Wind Speed," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-25, August.
    20. Li, Gong & Shi, Jing, 2012. "Applications of Bayesian methods in wind energy conversion systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-8.
    21. Wang, Jian-Zhou & Wang, Yun & Jiang, Ping, 2015. "The study and application of a novel hybrid forecasting model – A case study of wind speed forecasting in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 472-488.
    22. Optis, Mike & Perr-Sauer, Jordan, 2019. "The importance of atmospheric turbulence and stability in machine-learning models of wind farm power production," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 27-41.
    23. Colak, Ilhami & Sagiroglu, Seref & Yesilbudak, Mehmet, 2012. "Data mining and wind power prediction: A literature review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 241-247.
    24. Rohitash Chandra & Yixuan He, 2021. "Bayesian neural networks for stock price forecasting before and during COVID-19 pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-32, July.
    25. Platero, C.A. & Nicolet, C. & Sánchez, J.A. & Kawkabani, B., 2014. "Increasing wind power penetration in autonomous power systems through no-flow operation of Pelton turbines," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 515-523.

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