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Very short-term wind power forecasting with neural networks and adaptive Bayesian learning

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  • Blonbou, Ruddy

Abstract

This article presents an adaptive very short-term wind power prediction scheme that uses an artificial neural network as predictor along with adaptive Bayesian learning and Gaussian process approximation. A set of recent wind speed measurements samples composes the predictor’s inputs. The predictor’s parameters are adaptively optimized so that, at a given time t, its outputs approximate the future values of the generated electrical power. An evaluation of this prediction scheme was conducted for two tests cases; the predictor was set to simultaneously estimate the values of the wind power for the following prediction horizons: 5min, 10min and 15min for test case n°1 and for the test case n°2, the prediction horizons were 10min, 20min and 30min. The neural predictor performs better than the persistent model for both test cases. Moreover, the Bayesian framework also permits to predict, for a specified level of probability, the interval within which the generated power should be observed.

Suggested Citation

  • Blonbou, Ruddy, 2011. "Very short-term wind power forecasting with neural networks and adaptive Bayesian learning," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1118-1124.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:36:y:2011:i:3:p:1118-1124
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2010.08.026
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    2. Dehua Zheng & Min Shi & Yifeng Wang & Abinet Tesfaye Eseye & Jianhua Zhang, 2017. "Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting Using a Two-Stage Hybrid Modeling Approach Based on SCADA and Meteorological Information, and Evaluating the Impact of Input-Data Dependency on Forecasting Accuracy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Wang, Jianzhou & Qin, Shanshan & Zhou, Qingping & Jiang, Haiyan, 2015. "Medium-term wind speeds forecasting utilizing hybrid models for three different sites in Xinjiang, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 91-101.
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    9. Platero, C.A. & Nicolet, C. & Sánchez, J.A. & Kawkabani, B., 2014. "Increasing wind power penetration in autonomous power systems through no-flow operation of Pelton turbines," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 515-523.
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    11. Haque, Ashraf U. & Mandal, Paras & Kaye, Mary E. & Meng, Julian & Chang, Liuchen & Senjyu, Tomonobu, 2012. "A new strategy for predicting short-term wind speed using soft computing models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(7), pages 4563-4573.
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    13. Jung, Jaesung & Broadwater, Robert P., 2014. "Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 762-777.
    14. Qin, Li & Liu, Shi & Kang, Yi & Yan, Song An & Inaki Schlaberg, H. & Wang, Zhan, 2019. "Wind velocity distribution reconstruction using CFD database with Tucker decomposition and sensor measurement," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 1236-1250.
    15. Hu, Jianming & Wang, Jianzhou & Ma, Kailiang, 2015. "A hybrid technique for short-term wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 563-574.
    16. Wang, Jian-Zhou & Wang, Yun & Jiang, Ping, 2015. "The study and application of a novel hybrid forecasting model – A case study of wind speed forecasting in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 472-488.
    17. Dinh Thanh Viet & Vo Van Phuong & Minh Quan Duong & Quoc Tuan Tran, 2020. "Models for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on Improved Artificial Neural Network Using Particle Swarm Optimization and Genetic Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, June.
    18. Liu, Da & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Hui & Fan, Leilei, 2014. "Short-term wind speed forecasting using wavelet transform and support vector machines optimized by genetic algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 592-597.
    19. Adedipe, Tosin & Shafiee, Mahmood & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "Bayesian Network Modelling for the Wind Energy Industry: An Overview," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    20. Marvuglia, Antonino & Messineo, Antonio, 2012. "Monitoring of wind farms’ power curves using machine learning techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 574-583.
    21. Rohitash Chandra & Yixuan He, 2021. "Bayesian neural networks for stock price forecasting before and during COVID-19 pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-32, July.
    22. Doucoure, Boubacar & Agbossou, Kodjo & Cardenas, Alben, 2016. "Time series prediction using artificial wavelet neural network and multi-resolution analysis: Application to wind speed data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 202-211.
    23. Pei Du & Yu Jin & Kequan Zhang, 2016. "A Hybrid Multi-Step Rolling Forecasting Model Based on SSA and Simulated Annealing—Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization for Wind Speed," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-25, August.
    24. Li, Gong & Shi, Jing, 2012. "Applications of Bayesian methods in wind energy conversion systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-8.
    25. Colak, Ilhami & Sagiroglu, Seref & Yesilbudak, Mehmet, 2012. "Data mining and wind power prediction: A literature review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 241-247.

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