IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v36y2011i3p1118-1124.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Very short-term wind power forecasting with neural networks and adaptive Bayesian learning

Author

Listed:
  • Blonbou, Ruddy

Abstract

This article presents an adaptive very short-term wind power prediction scheme that uses an artificial neural network as predictor along with adaptive Bayesian learning and Gaussian process approximation. A set of recent wind speed measurements samples composes the predictor’s inputs. The predictor’s parameters are adaptively optimized so that, at a given time t, its outputs approximate the future values of the generated electrical power. An evaluation of this prediction scheme was conducted for two tests cases; the predictor was set to simultaneously estimate the values of the wind power for the following prediction horizons: 5min, 10min and 15min for test case n°1 and for the test case n°2, the prediction horizons were 10min, 20min and 30min. The neural predictor performs better than the persistent model for both test cases. Moreover, the Bayesian framework also permits to predict, for a specified level of probability, the interval within which the generated power should be observed.

Suggested Citation

  • Blonbou, Ruddy, 2011. "Very short-term wind power forecasting with neural networks and adaptive Bayesian learning," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1118-1124.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:36:y:2011:i:3:p:1118-1124
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2010.08.026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148110003976
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2010.08.026?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Costa, Alexandre & Crespo, Antonio & Navarro, Jorge & Lizcano, Gil & Madsen, Henrik & Feitosa, Everaldo, 2008. "A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 1725-1744, August.
    2. Pallabazzer, Rodolfo, 2004. "Previsional estimation of the energy output of windgenerators," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 413-420.
    3. Sfetsos, A., 2000. "A comparison of various forecasting techniques applied to mean hourly wind speed time series," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 23-35.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Lim, Edwin & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2018. "A database infrastructure to implement real-time solar and wind power generation intra-hour forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 513-525.
    2. Dehua Zheng & Min Shi & Yifeng Wang & Abinet Tesfaye Eseye & Jianhua Zhang, 2017. "Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting Using a Two-Stage Hybrid Modeling Approach Based on SCADA and Meteorological Information, and Evaluating the Impact of Input-Data Dependency on Forecasting Accuracy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Wang, Jianzhou & Qin, Shanshan & Zhou, Qingping & Jiang, Haiyan, 2015. "Medium-term wind speeds forecasting utilizing hybrid models for three different sites in Xinjiang, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 91-101.
    4. Peng, Xiaosheng & Wang, Hongyu & Lang, Jianxun & Li, Wenze & Xu, Qiyou & Zhang, Zuowei & Cai, Tao & Duan, Shanxu & Liu, Fangjie & Li, Chaoshun, 2021. "EALSTM-QR: Interval wind-power prediction model based on numerical weather prediction and deep learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    5. Hu, Jianming & Wang, Jianzhou & Xiao, Liqun, 2017. "A hybrid approach based on the Gaussian process with t-observation model for short-term wind speed forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(PB), pages 670-685.
    6. Cheng, William Y.Y. & Liu, Yubao & Bourgeois, Alfred J. & Wu, Yonghui & Haupt, Sue Ellen, 2017. "Short-term wind forecast of a data assimilation/weather forecasting system with wind turbine anemometer measurement assimilation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 340-351.
    7. Niu, Xinsong & Wang, Jiyang, 2019. "A combined model based on data preprocessing strategy and multi-objective optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 519-539.
    8. Optis, Mike & Perr-Sauer, Jordan, 2019. "The importance of atmospheric turbulence and stability in machine-learning models of wind farm power production," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 27-41.
    9. Platero, C.A. & Nicolet, C. & Sánchez, J.A. & Kawkabani, B., 2014. "Increasing wind power penetration in autonomous power systems through no-flow operation of Pelton turbines," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 515-523.
    10. Zhang, Fei & Li, Peng-Cheng & Gao, Lu & Liu, Yong-Qian & Ren, Xiao-Ying, 2021. "Application of autoregressive dynamic adaptive (ARDA) model in real-time wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 129-143.
    11. Haque, Ashraf U. & Mandal, Paras & Kaye, Mary E. & Meng, Julian & Chang, Liuchen & Senjyu, Tomonobu, 2012. "A new strategy for predicting short-term wind speed using soft computing models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(7), pages 4563-4573.
    12. Samuel Atuahene & Yukun Bao & Yao Yevenyo Ziggah & Patricia Semwaah Gyan & Feng Li, 2018. "Short-Term Electric Power Forecasting Using Dual-Stage Hierarchical Wavelet- Particle Swarm Optimization- Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System PSO-ANFIS Approach Based On Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    13. Jung, Jaesung & Broadwater, Robert P., 2014. "Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 762-777.
    14. Qin, Li & Liu, Shi & Kang, Yi & Yan, Song An & Inaki Schlaberg, H. & Wang, Zhan, 2019. "Wind velocity distribution reconstruction using CFD database with Tucker decomposition and sensor measurement," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 1236-1250.
    15. Hu, Jianming & Wang, Jianzhou & Ma, Kailiang, 2015. "A hybrid technique for short-term wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 563-574.
    16. Wang, Jian-Zhou & Wang, Yun & Jiang, Ping, 2015. "The study and application of a novel hybrid forecasting model – A case study of wind speed forecasting in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 472-488.
    17. Dinh Thanh Viet & Vo Van Phuong & Minh Quan Duong & Quoc Tuan Tran, 2020. "Models for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on Improved Artificial Neural Network Using Particle Swarm Optimization and Genetic Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, June.
    18. Liu, Da & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Hui & Fan, Leilei, 2014. "Short-term wind speed forecasting using wavelet transform and support vector machines optimized by genetic algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 592-597.
    19. Adedipe, Tosin & Shafiee, Mahmood & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "Bayesian Network Modelling for the Wind Energy Industry: An Overview," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    20. Marvuglia, Antonino & Messineo, Antonio, 2012. "Monitoring of wind farms’ power curves using machine learning techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 574-583.
    21. Rohitash Chandra & Yixuan He, 2021. "Bayesian neural networks for stock price forecasting before and during COVID-19 pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-32, July.
    22. Doucoure, Boubacar & Agbossou, Kodjo & Cardenas, Alben, 2016. "Time series prediction using artificial wavelet neural network and multi-resolution analysis: Application to wind speed data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 202-211.
    23. Pei Du & Yu Jin & Kequan Zhang, 2016. "A Hybrid Multi-Step Rolling Forecasting Model Based on SSA and Simulated Annealing—Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization for Wind Speed," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-25, August.
    24. Li, Gong & Shi, Jing, 2012. "Applications of Bayesian methods in wind energy conversion systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-8.
    25. Colak, Ilhami & Sagiroglu, Seref & Yesilbudak, Mehmet, 2012. "Data mining and wind power prediction: A literature review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 241-247.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Gong & Shi, Jing, 2010. "On comparing three artificial neural networks for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(7), pages 2313-2320, July.
    2. Bouzgou, Hassen & Benoudjit, Nabil, 2011. "Multiple architecture system for wind speed prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(7), pages 2463-2471, July.
    3. Cadenas, E. & Jaramillo, O.A. & Rivera, W., 2010. "Analysis and forecasting of wind velocity in chetumal, quintana roo, using the single exponential smoothing method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 925-930.
    4. Li, Gong & Shi, Jing & Zhou, Junyi, 2011. "Bayesian adaptive combination of short-term wind speed forecasts from neural network models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 352-359.
    5. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Uzunoglu, M., 2014. "A review of combined approaches for prediction of short-term wind speed and power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 243-254.
    6. Sharifzadeh, Mahdi & Sikinioti-Lock, Alexandra & Shah, Nilay, 2019. "Machine-learning methods for integrated renewable power generation: A comparative study of artificial neural networks, support vector regression, and Gaussian Process Regression," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 513-538.
    7. Feijóo, Andrés & Villanueva, Daniel, 2016. "Assessing wind speed simulation methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 473-483.
    8. Chehouri, Adam & Younes, Rafic & Ilinca, Adrian & Perron, Jean, 2015. "Review of performance optimization techniques applied to wind turbines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 361-388.
    9. Chitsazan, Mohammad Amin & Sami Fadali, M. & Trzynadlowski, Andrzej M., 2019. "Wind speed and wind direction forecasting using echo state network with nonlinear functions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 879-889.
    10. Rana Muhammad Adnan & Zhongmin Liang & Xiaohui Yuan & Ozgur Kisi & Muhammad Akhlaq & Binquan Li, 2019. "Comparison of LSSVR, M5RT, NF-GP, and NF-SC Models for Predictions of Hourly Wind Speed and Wind Power Based on Cross-Validation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, January.
    11. Fusco, Francesco & Nolan, Gary & Ringwood, John V., 2010. "Variability reduction through optimal combination of wind/wave resources – An Irish case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 314-325.
    12. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Pan, Di-fu & Li, Yan-fei, 2013. "Forecasting models for wind speed using wavelet, wavelet packet, time series and Artificial Neural Networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 191-208.
    13. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Møller Dahl, Christian, 2014. "Accurate medium-term wind power forecasting in a censored classification framework," Discussion Papers 351, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    14. Antonio Bracale & Pasquale De Falco, 2015. "An Advanced Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of the Generation of Wind Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-22, September.
    15. Monteiro, Claudio & Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J. & Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo, 2013. "Short-term forecasting model for electric power production of small-hydro power plants," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 387-394.
    16. Jha, Sunil Kr. & Bilalovic, Jasmin & Jha, Anju & Patel, Nilesh & Zhang, Han, 2017. "Renewable energy: Present research and future scope of Artificial Intelligence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 297-317.
    17. Jiang, Yu & Song, Zhe & Kusiak, Andrew, 2013. "Very short-term wind speed forecasting with Bayesian structural break model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 637-647.
    18. Jurado, Francisco & Saenz, José R., 2003. "An adaptive control scheme for biomass-based diesel–wind system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 45-57.
    19. Yakoub, Ghali & Mathew, Sathyajith & Leal, Joao, 2023. "Intelligent estimation of wind farm performance with direct and indirect ‘point’ forecasting approaches integrating several NWP models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PD).
    20. Carta, J.A. & Ramírez, P. & Velázquez, S., 2009. "A review of wind speed probability distributions used in wind energy analysis: Case studies in the Canary Islands," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 933-955, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:36:y:2011:i:3:p:1118-1124. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.