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A new strategy for predicting short-term wind speed using soft computing models

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  • Haque, Ashraf U.
  • Mandal, Paras
  • Kaye, Mary E.
  • Meng, Julian
  • Chang, Liuchen
  • Senjyu, Tomonobu

Abstract

Wind power prediction is a widely used tool for the large-scale integration of intermittent wind-powered generators into power systems. Given the cubic relationship between wind speed and wind power, accurate forecasting of wind speed is imperative for the estimation of future wind power generation output. This paper presents a performance analysis of short-term wind speed prediction techniques based on soft computing models (SCMs) formulated on a backpropagation neural network (BPNN), a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The forecasting performance of the SCMs is augmented by a similar days (SD) method, which considers similar historical weather information corresponding to the forecasting day in order to determine similar wind speed days for processing. The test results demonstrate that all evaluated SCMs incur some level of performance improvement with the addition of SD pre-processing. As an example, the SD+ANFIS model can provide up to 48% improvement in forecasting accuracy when compared to the individual ANFIS model alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Haque, Ashraf U. & Mandal, Paras & Kaye, Mary E. & Meng, Julian & Chang, Liuchen & Senjyu, Tomonobu, 2012. "A new strategy for predicting short-term wind speed using soft computing models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(7), pages 4563-4573.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:16:y:2012:i:7:p:4563-4573
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2012.05.042
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    3. Wang, Jianzhou & Qin, Shanshan & Zhou, Qingping & Jiang, Haiyan, 2015. "Medium-term wind speeds forecasting utilizing hybrid models for three different sites in Xinjiang, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 91-101.
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    5. Hu, Jianming & Wang, Jianzhou & Xiao, Liqun, 2017. "A hybrid approach based on the Gaussian process with t-observation model for short-term wind speed forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(PB), pages 670-685.
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    9. Ramasamy, P. & Chandel, S.S. & Yadav, Amit Kumar, 2015. "Wind speed prediction in the mountainous region of India using an artificial neural network model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 338-347.
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    12. Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Keivani, Afram & Mohammadi, Kasra & Lee, Malrey & Hamid, Siti Hafizah Abd & Petkovic, Dalibor, 2016. "Assessing the proficiency of adaptive neuro-fuzzy system to estimate wind power density: Case study of Aligoodarz, Iran," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 429-435.
    13. Ata, Rasit, 2015. "Artificial neural networks applications in wind energy systems: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-562.
    14. Dong, Zhen & Li, Zhongguo & Liang, Zhongchao & Xu, Yiqiao & Ding, Zhengtao, 2021. "Distributed neural network enhanced power generation strategy of large-scale wind power plant for power expansion," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    15. Jung, Jaesung & Broadwater, Robert P., 2014. "Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 762-777.
    16. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Uzunoglu, M., 2014. "A review of combined approaches for prediction of short-term wind speed and power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 243-254.
    17. Suganthi, L. & Iniyan, S. & Samuel, Anand A., 2015. "Applications of fuzzy logic in renewable energy systems – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 585-607.
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    19. Chang, G.W. & Lu, H.J. & Chang, Y.R. & Lee, Y.D., 2017. "An improved neural network-based approach for short-term wind speed and power forecast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 301-311.
    20. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Pan, Di-fu & Li, Yan-fei, 2013. "Forecasting models for wind speed using wavelet, wavelet packet, time series and Artificial Neural Networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 191-208.
    21. Hannah Jessie Rani R. & Aruldoss Albert Victoire T., 2018. "Training radial basis function networks for wind speed prediction using PSO enhanced differential search optimizer," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-35, May.
    22. José Carlos Palomares-Salas & Agustín Agüera-Pérez & Juan José González de la Rosa & José María Sierra-Fernández & Antonio Moreno-Muñoz, 2013. "Exogenous Measurements from Basic Meteorological Stations for Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-19, November.
    23. Sharifian, Amir & Ghadi, M. Jabbari & Ghavidel, Sahand & Li, Li & Zhang, Jiangfeng, 2018. "A new method based on Type-2 fuzzy neural network for accurate wind power forecasting under uncertain data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 220-230.

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