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A model to predict expected mean and stochastic hourly global solar radiation I(h;nj) values

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  • Kaplanis, S.
  • Kaplani, E.

Abstract

This paper describes an improved approach for (a) the estimation of the mean expected hourly global solar radiation I(h;nj), for any hour h of a day nj of the year, at any site, and (b) the estimation of stochastically fluctuating I(h;nj) values, based on only one morning measurement of a day. Predicted mean expected values are compared, on one hand with recorded data for the period of 1995–2000 and, on the other, with results obtained by the METEONORM package, for the region of Patra, Greece. The stochastically predicted values for the 17th January and 17th July are compared with the recorded data and the corresponding values predicted by the METEONORM package. The proposed model provides I(h;nj) predictions very close to the measurements and offers itself as a promising tool both for the on-line daily management of solar power sources and loads, and for a cost effective PV sizing approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaplanis, S. & Kaplani, E., 2007. "A model to predict expected mean and stochastic hourly global solar radiation I(h;nj) values," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1414-1425.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:32:y:2007:i:8:p:1414-1425
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2006.06.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Festa, R. & Jain, S. & Ratto, C.F., 1992. "Stochastic modelling of daily global irradiation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 23-34.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tao Zhang & Minli Wang & Peihong Wang & Junyu Liang, 2020. "Optimal Design of a Combined Cooling, Heating, and Power System and Its Ability to Adapt to Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-17, July.
    2. Zhigang Duan & Yamin Yan & Xiaohan Yan & Qi Liao & Wan Zhang & Yongtu Liang & Tianqi Xia, 2017. "An MILP Method for Design of Distributed Energy Resource System Considering Stochastic Energy Supply and Demand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Kaplanis, S. & Kaplani, E., 2010. "Stochastic prediction of hourly global solar radiation for Patra, Greece," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 3748-3758, December.
    4. Stefano Bianchi & Allegra De Filippo & Sandro Magnani & Gabriele Mosaico & Federico Silvestro, 2021. "VIRTUS Project: A Scalable Aggregation Platform for the Intelligent Virtual Management of Distributed Energy Resources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-31, June.
    5. Prema, V. & Rao, K. Uma, 2015. "Development of statistical time series models for solar power prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 100-109.
    6. Wu, Ji & Chan, Chee Keong & Zhang, Yu & Xiong, Bin Yu & Zhang, Qing Hai, 2014. "Prediction of solar radiation with genetic approach combing multi-model framework," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 132-139.
    7. Kambezidis, H.D. & Psiloglou, B.E. & Karagiannis, D. & Dumka, U.C. & Kaskaoutis, D.G., 2017. "Meteorological Radiation Model (MRM v6.1): Improvements in diffuse radiation estimates and a new approach for implementation of cloud products," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 616-637.
    8. Shih‐Chieh Liao & Shih‐Chieh Chang & Tsung‐Chi Cheng, 2022. "Index‐based renewable energy insurance for Taiwan Solar Photovoltaic Power Plants," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 145-172, June.
    9. Zang, Haixiang & Cheng, Lilin & Ding, Tao & Cheung, Kwok W. & Wang, Miaomiao & Wei, Zhinong & Sun, Guoqiang, 2019. "Estimation and validation of daily global solar radiation by day of the year-based models for different climates in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 984-1003.
    10. Kaldellis, J.K. & Zafirakis, D. & Kondili, E., 2010. "Energy pay-back period analysis of stand-alone photovoltaic systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1444-1454.
    11. Li, Shuai & Ma, Hongjie & Li, Weiyi, 2017. "Typical solar radiation year construction using k-means clustering and discrete-time Markov chain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 720-731.
    12. Bouchouicha, Kada & Hassan, Muhammed A. & Bailek, Nadjem & Aoun, Nouar, 2019. "Estimating the global solar irradiation and optimizing the error estimates under Algerian desert climate," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 844-858.
    13. Zang, Haixiang & Xu, Qingshan & Bian, Haihong, 2012. "Generation of typical solar radiation data for different climates of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 236-248.
    14. Kaplani, E. & Kaplanis, S. & Mondal, S., 2018. "A spatiotemporal universal model for the prediction of the global solar radiation based on Fourier series and the site altitude," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 933-942.
    15. Anton Vernet & Alexandre Fabregat, 2023. "Evaluation of Empirical Daily Solar Radiation Models for the Northeast Coast of the Iberian Peninsula," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-18, March.
    16. Cao, Fei & Li, Huashan & Yang, Tian & Li, Yan & Zhu, Tianyu & Zhao, Liang, 2017. "Evaluation of diffuse solar radiation models in Northern China: New model establishment and radiation sources comparison," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 708-720.
    17. Lai, Chun Sing & Jia, Youwei & Lai, Loi Lei & Xu, Zhao & McCulloch, Malcolm D. & Wong, Kit Po, 2017. "A comprehensive review on large-scale photovoltaic system with applications of electrical energy storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 439-451.
    18. Rizwan, M. & Jamil, Majid & Kirmani, Sheeraz & Kothari, D.P., 2014. "Fuzzy logic based modeling and estimation of global solar energy using meteorological parameters," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 685-691.
    19. Zhou, Zhe & Zhang, Jianyun & Liu, Pei & Li, Zheng & Georgiadis, Michael C. & Pistikopoulos, Efstratios N., 2013. "A two-stage stochastic programming model for the optimal design of distributed energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 135-144.
    20. Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo & Muñoz-Jimenez, Andrés & Falces, Alberto & Mendoza-Villena, Montserrat & Garcia-Garrido, Eduardo & Lara-Santillan, Pedro M. & Zorzano-Alba, Enrique & Zorzano-Santamaria,, 2012. "Short-term power forecasting system for photovoltaic plants," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 311-317.

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