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Using medium-range weather forcasts to improve the value of wind energy production

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  • Roulston, M.S.
  • Kaplan, D.T.
  • Hardenberg, J.
  • Smith, L.A.

Abstract

The value of different strategies for consolidating the information in European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) forecasts to wind energy generators is investigated. Simulating the performance of generators using the different strategies in the context of a simplified electricity market revealed that ECMWF forecasts in production decisions improved the performance of generators at lead times of up to 6 days. Basing half-hourly production decisions on a production forecast generated by condtioning the climate on the ECMWF operational ensemble forecast yields the best results of all the strategies tested.

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  • Roulston, M.S. & Kaplan, D.T. & Hardenberg, J. & Smith, L.A., 2003. "Using medium-range weather forcasts to improve the value of wind energy production," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 585-602.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:28:y:2003:i:4:p:585-602
    DOI: 10.1016/S0960-1481(02)00054-X
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    12. Cadenas, Erasmo & Rivera, Wilfrido, 2010. "Wind speed forecasting in three different regions of Mexico, using a hybrid ARIMA–ANN model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2732-2738.
    13. Murphy, M.D. & O’Mahony, M.J. & Upton, J., 2015. "Comparison of control systems for the optimisation of ice storage in a dynamic real time electricity pricing environment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 392-403.
    14. Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir & Tilmann Gneiting, 2010. "Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed: ensemble model output statistics by using heteroscedastic censored regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(2), pages 371-388, April.
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    16. Cadenas, Erasmo & Rivera, Wilfrido, 2007. "Wind speed forecasting in the South Coast of Oaxaca, México," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2116-2128.
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    18. Alessandrini, S. & Delle Monache, L. & Sperati, S. & Cervone, G., 2015. "An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 95-110.
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