Research on short-term optimization and scheduling of multi-energy complementary systems based on forecast scenario dynamic correction

The inherent unpredictability and instability of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, hinder the precise execution of power generation plans in complementary systems, posing significant challenges to their integration into power grids. Therefore, this study proposes a dynamic correction method for wind and solar output forecast scenarios in the short-term scheduling of wind-solar-hydro complementary systems. The method utilizes statistical analysis of forecast errors in wind and solar power outputs to characterize uncertainty patterns across different forecast levels and constructs a typical forecast scenario set based on single-day forecasts. This approach probabilistically models each scenario according to the temporal migration patterns of wind and solar power outputs and develops a neural network-based dynamic correction fusion model to refine the forecasts. Application of this method in a case study of the Yalong River Basin demonstrated that, after applying dynamic correction to the forecast scenarios, the mean absolute error in total wind and solar output predictions during the wet and dry seasons was reduced by 50.73 % and 47.95 %, respectively. Additionally, the dynamic correction reduced the maximum residual load on typical wet and dry days by 82.70 % and 62.37 %, respectively, and decreased the total intraday residual electricity by 91.17 % and 73.24 %, compared to single-day forecasts. The study concludes that the proposed dynamic correction method enhances power system stability and improves power generation efficiency and reliability.