Prospects of green hydrogen production in the Philippines from solar photovoltaic and wind resources: A techno-economic analysis for the present and 2030

As global temperatures continue to rise, reducing greenhouse gas emissions is more important than ever – demanding an urgent transition to renewable energy systems. In this study, the potential for green hydrogen production from solar and wind sources in the Philippines is explored. Renewable energy systems can yield higher decarbonization by producing green hydrogen, potentially an ‘energy vector’ for industrial, power, and transportation applications, thereby representing a promising solution for the nation's energy transition. This study explores the competitiveness of green hydrogen production in the Philippines through a comprehensive techno-economic analysis to predict the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) derived from solar- and wind-powered electrolysis. The 2030 projections explore three scenarios, each representing varying research and development intensities resulting in different electrolyzer costs. The resulting LCOH values underscore the need for economic policy interventions to slash hydrogen costs to a competitive level. The present and near-future costs and attributes of electrolysis technologies still fall short compared to fossil fuel-based pathways. Furthermore, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are conducted to investigate subsidy and policy requirements, and random changes to costs. The findings of this work provide a comprehensive understanding of the potential fluctuations and challenges in the economic landscape in the Philippines.