IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i2p509-d1322949.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s Exports to the EU

Author

Listed:
  • Jingzhi Zhu

    (School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Yuhuan Zhao

    (School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Lu Zheng

    (School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China)

Abstract

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is regarded as the EU’s key policy tool to address carbon leakage, might have a non-negligible impact on China’s exports, as China is an important trading partner for the EU’s carbon-intensive products. This paper uses the GTAP-E model to simulate the impact of the EU CBAM on China’s exports to the EU from four aspects, export price, trade structure, trade value and terms of trade, by setting up multiple scenarios. The results show that the EU CBAM reduces the export prices of China’s taxed sectors to the EU, and that the export prices of other sectors show the same change characteristics. The export volume of China’s taxed sectors decreases differently with the export transfer effect and export inhibition effect. In terms of trade value, the EU carbon tariffs not only reduce China’s export value but also lead to a reduction in EU exports. The implementation of the EU CBAM improves the terms of trade of the EU and worsens the terms of trade of China. An expansion of the scope of taxation and a change in the calculation method of carbon emissions would aggravate the change in the terms of trade. The results suggest that feasible measures should be taken to strengthen international cooperation, promote the construction of a unified national carbon market and export diversification, and establish a firm carbon emission accounting system in order to mitigate the negative impact of the EU CBAM.

Suggested Citation

  • Jingzhi Zhu & Yuhuan Zhao & Lu Zheng, 2024. "The Impact of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s Exports to the EU," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-18, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:2:p:509-:d:1322949
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/2/509/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/2/509/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Overland, Indra & Sabyrbekov, Rahat, 2022. "Know your opponent: Which countries might fight the European carbon border adjustment mechanism?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Perdana, Sigit & Vielle, Marc, 2022. "Making the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism acceptable and climate friendly for least developed countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    4. Kaufmann, Christine & Weber, Rolf H., 2011. "Carbon-related border tax adjustment: mitigating climate change or restricting international trade?," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 497-525, October.
    5. Nong, Duy & Simshauser, Paul & Nguyen, Duong Binh, 2021. "Greenhouse gas emissions vs CO2 emissions: Comparative analysis of a global carbon tax," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    6. Nong, Duy & Siriwardana, Mahinda, 2017. "Australia’s Emissions Reduction Fund in an international context," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 123-134.
    7. Lin, Boqiang & Zhao, Hengsong, 2023. "Evaluating current effects of upcoming EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: Evidence from China's futures market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    8. Wu, Libo & Zhou, Ying & Qian, Haoqi, 2022. "Global actions under the Paris agreement: Tracing the carbon leakage flow and pursuing countermeasures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    9. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    10. Babiker, Mustafa H., 2005. "Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 421-445, March.
    11. Burniaux, Jean-March & Truong, Truong P., 2002. "Gtap-E: An Energy-Environmental Version Of The Gtap Model," Technical Papers 28705, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Nong, Duy & Simshauser, Paul, 2020. "On energy and climate change policies: The impact of baseline projections," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michetti, Melania & Rosa, Renato, 2012. "Afforestation and timber management compliance strategies in climate policy. A computable general equilibrium analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 139-148.
    2. Nong, Duy & Nguyen, Trung H. & Wang, Can & Van Khuc, Quy, 2020. "The environmental and economic impact of the emissions trading scheme (ETS) in Vietnam," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Iain Fraser & Robert Waschik, 2010. "The Double Dividend Hypothesis in a CGE Model: Specific Factors and Variable Labour Supply," Working Papers 2010.02, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    4. Eboli, Fabio & Parrado, Ramiro & Roson, Roberto, 2010. "Climate-change feedback on economic growth: explorations with a dynamic general equilibrium model," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 515-533, October.
    5. Hertel, Thomas W. & Tyner, Wallace E. & Birur, Dileep K., 2008. "Biofuels for all? Understanding the Global Impacts of Multinational Mandates," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6526, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate change impacts on global agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 357-374, September.
    7. Britz, Wolfgang & Li, Jingwen & Shang, Linmei, 2021. "Combining large-scale sensitivity analysis in Computable General Equilibrium models with Machine Learning: An Example Application to policy supporting the bio-economy," Conference papers 333285, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. B. Henderson & A. Golub & D. Pambudi & T. Hertel & C. Godde & M. Herrero & O. Cacho & P. Gerber, 2018. "The power and pain of market-based carbon policies: a global application to greenhouse gases from ruminant livestock production," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 349-369, March.
    9. Calzadilla, Alvaro & Rehdanz, Katrin & Tol, Richard S.J., 2008. "Water scarcity and the impact of improved irrigation management: A CGE analysis," Conference papers 331788, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Parrado, Ramiro & De Cian, Enrica, 2014. "Technology spillovers embodied in international trade: Intertemporal, regional and sectoral effects in a global CGE framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 76-89.
    11. Francesco Bosello & Lorenza Campagnolo & Raffaello Cervigni & Fabio Eboli, 2018. "Climate Change and Adaptation: The Case of Nigerian Agriculture," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 69(4), pages 787-810, April.
    12. Banse, M. & Sorda, G., 2010. "Impact of Different Biofuel Policy Options on Agricultural Production and Land Use in Germany," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 45, March.
    13. Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Economic Impact of the South-North Water Transfer Project in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 2006.154, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    14. Antimiani, Alessandro & Costantini, Valeria & Martini, Chiara & Salvatici, Luca & Tommasino, Maria Cristina, 2011. "Cooperative and non-cooperative solutions to carbon leakage," Conference papers 332096, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. Michetti, Melania & Parrado, Ramiro, 2012. "Improving Land-use modelling within CGE to assess Forest-based Mitigation Potential and Costs," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 122862, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    16. Kerkelä, Leena, 2009. "Essays on globalization - Policies in trade, development, resources and climate change," Research Reports P50, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Jian Zhang & Denise Eby Konan, 2010. "The Sleeping Giant Awakes: Projecting Global Implications of China's Energy Consumption," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 750-767, November.
    18. Palatnik, Ruslana & Shechter, Mordechai, 2008. "Can Climate Change Mitigation Policy be Beneficial for the Israeli Economy? A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Conference papers 331792, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Berrittella, Maria & Rehdanz, Katrin & Roson, Roberto & Tol, Richard S.J., 2007. "The Economic Impact of Water Taxes: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis with an International Data Set," Conference papers 331655, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Calzadilla, Alvaro & Zhu, Tingju & Rehdanz, Katrin & Tol, Richard S.J. & Ringler, Claudia, 2013. "Economywide impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 150-165.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:2:p:509-:d:1322949. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.