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From gray to green: Energy crises and the role of CPEC

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  • Duan, Wenqi
  • Khurshid, Adnan
  • Nazir, Naila
  • Khan, Khalid
  • Calin, Adrian Cantemir

Abstract

Electric power shortfalls driven by inadequate generation, electrification, and lack of clarity on the planning side have worsened Pakistan's power crises that deformed economic growth. This study focuses on the estimation of the electricity supply and demand in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) perspective and on the main reasons that motivate a transition to green resources. This paper estimated the demand-supply gap (1990–2015) and forecasted it (2016–2035), including CPEC projects using the System Dynamics model. The results show that the power demand will be met by 2021, fact highlighted also by a battery of robustness tests. We find that the CPEC efforts will increase energy growth from 4.5% (1990–2015) to 14.6% (2016–2035). The capacity growth will increase from 4.9% to 12.3% during 2016–2035. Moreover, the current renewable energy production and investment (Wind & Solar Power) will not help achieve policy targets. A total investment of $4806.69 million is required to meet policy targets, while a value of $57,683 million is needed for a complete conversion to green energy. The study highlights the challenges on the green energy path and discusses policies needed to overcome these problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Duan, Wenqi & Khurshid, Adnan & Nazir, Naila & Khan, Khalid & Calin, Adrian Cantemir, 2022. "From gray to green: Energy crises and the role of CPEC," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 188-207.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:190:y:2022:i:c:p:188-207
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2022.03.066
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