IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2022i2p65-82.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Covid-19, Tourism and the Economy - Evidence from Pandemic Epicenters of Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Yu MA

    (School of Accountancy, Anyang Institute of Technology, Anyang, Henan Province. China.)

  • Adnan KHURSHID

    (Corresponding author: School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua, China.)

  • Abdur RAUF

    (Department of Economics, Abbottabad University of Science and Technology.)

  • Jin ZHANG

    (Corresponding author: School of Humanities, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai.)

  • Xinyu WANG

    (North China University of Technology, Beijing, China.)

  • Claudia BOGHICEVICI

    (Aurel Vlaicu University, Arad)

Abstract

The outburst of the COVID-19 pandemic put the world in quarantine, tourism being the most severely affected of all major economic sectors. The paper aims to capture the impact of COVID-19 shock on the tourism industry and economic progress using a dynamic distribution lag model. The data from 2001 to 2019 along with the epidemic shock are used to produce forecasts for Germany, France, Spain, and Italy until 2030. The results reveal that Germany's "smokeless industry" will fall by 6.9%, which puts 1.09 million jobs at risk. The declining trends will continue until 2023; however, they will match the current trends in 2024. Similarly, the expected losses for France, Spain, and Italy during 2020 are 9.63%, 9.35%, and 9.34%, respectively. The lockdown situation will shrink the real output and dampen GDP per capita. The highest per capita losses of 7.31% are recorded for Spain, while individual outputs in Germany, France, and Italy will fall by 6.55%, 6.73% and 7.2%, respectively. Thus, public-private cooperation is required for responsible tourism after the travel bans are lifted. The Governments should develop and communicate post-pandemic policies for the tourism value chain, go for smart lockdowns in order to protect jobs, and uplift the real outputs.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu MA & Adnan KHURSHID & Abdur RAUF & Jin ZHANG & Xinyu WANG & Claudia BOGHICEVICI, 2022. "Covid-19, Tourism and the Economy - Evidence from Pandemic Epicenters of Europe," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 65-82, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2022:i:2:p:65-82
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ipe.ro/RePEc/rjef/rjef2_2022/rjef2_2022p65-82.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonathan Karnon, 2020. "A Simple Decision Analysis of a Mandatory Lockdown Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 329-331, June.
    2. Adnan KHURSHID & Yin KEDONG & Adrian Cantemir CĂLIN & Zhaosu MENG & Naila NAZIR, 2018. "Remittances Inflows, Gain of Foreign Exchange or Trade Loss? New Evidence from Low, Lower-Middle and Middle-Income Groups," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 20-41, December.
    3. Muhammad Shahbaz & Román Ferrer & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Ilham Haouas, 2018. "Is the tourism–economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top 10 tourist destinations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(24), pages 2677-2697, May.
    4. Khan, Khalid & Su, Chi Wei & Khurshid, Adnan, 2022. "Do booms and busts identify bubbles in energy prices?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Wen-Qi Duan & Zahid Khan & Muhammad Gulistan & Adnan Khurshid & Zeljko Stevic, 2021. "Neutrosophic Exponential Distribution: Modeling and Applications for Complex Data Analysis," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-8, September.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    7. Rafael E. De Hoyos & Vasilis Sarafidis, 2006. "Testing for cross-sectional dependence in panel-data models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 6(4), pages 482-496, December.
    8. Duan, Wenqi & Khurshid, Adnan & Nazir, Naila & Khan, Khalid & Calin, Adrian Cantemir, 2022. "From gray to green: Energy crises and the role of CPEC," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 188-207.
    9. Huaiwen ZHANG & Adnan Khurshid & Xinyu WANG & Alina Mirela BĂLTĂŢEANU, 2021. "Corporate Financial Risk Assessment and Role of Big Data; New Perspective Using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 181-199, June.
    10. Adnan KHURSHID & Yin KEDONG & Adrian Cantemir CALIN & Cristina Georgiana ZELDEA & Sun QIANG & Duan WENQI, 2020. "Is the Relationship between Remittances and Economic Growth Influenced by the Governance and Development of the Financial Sector? New Evidence from the Developing Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 37-56, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xinyu Wang & Yuanze Chai & Wensen Wu & Adnan Khurshid, 2023. "The Empirical Analysis of Environmental Regulation’s Spatial Spillover Effects on Green Technology Innovation in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-14, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adnan Khurshid & Abdur Rauf & Sadia Qayyum & Adrian Cantemir Calin & WenQi Duan, 2023. "Green innovation and carbon emissions: the role of carbon pricing and environmental policies in attaining sustainable development targets of carbon mitigation—evidence from Central-Eastern Europe," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 8777-8798, August.
    2. Xinyu WANG & Wensen WU & Jin ZHANG & Gheorghe HURDUZEU & Teodora Odett BREAZ & Vasile Cosmin NICULA, 2022. "How are industrial sector optimization, mitigation policies and taxes contributing to carbon neutrality? Threshold Evidence from Europe," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 187-201, April.
    3. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Global Imbalances: Should We Use Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates?," MPRA Paper 42554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mamba, Essotanam & Ali, Essossinam, 2022. "Do agricultural exports enhance agricultural (economic) growth? Lessons from ECOWAS countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 257-267.
    5. Ajanaku, B.A. & Collins, A.R., 2021. "Economic growth and deforestation in African countries: Is the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis applicable?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Damane, Moeti & Ho, Sin-Yu, 2024. "Effects of Financial Inclusion of Small and medium Sized Enterprises on Financial Stability: Evidence from SSA countries," MPRA Paper 121093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Roula Inglesi-Lotz & Luis Diez del Corral Morales, 2017. "The Effect of Education on a Country’s Energy Consumption: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries," Working Papers 201733, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Bin Peng & Giovanni Forchini, 2012. "Consistent Estimation of Panel Data Models with a Multi-factor Error Structure," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0112, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    9. Eugene Kouassi & Lexi L Setlhare, 2016. "Asymptotic Properties of Pesaran's CD Test Revisited," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2569-2578.
    10. Chung, Changwoo & Kim, Jinsoo, 2024. "Greenflation, a myth or fact? Empirical evidence from 26 OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Salim, Ruhul A. & Hassan, Kamrul & Shafiei, Sahar, 2014. "Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic activities: Further evidence from OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 350-360.
    12. Francois, John Nana & Ahmad, Nazneen & Keinsley, Andrew & Nti-Addae, Akwasi, 2022. "Heterogeneity in the long-run remittance-output relationship: Theory and new evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    13. Bruno Albuquerque & Georgi Krustev, 2018. "Debt Overhang and Deleveraging in the US Household Sector: Gauging the Impact on Consumption," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(2), pages 459-481, June.
    14. Delwar Hossain, 2014. "Differential Impacts of Foreign Capital and Remittance Inflows on Domestic Savings in the Developing Countries: A Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Analysis," Departmental Working Papers 2014-07, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    15. Khalid, Usman & Shafiullah, Muhammad, 2021. "Financial development and governance: A panel data analysis incorporating cross-sectional dependence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    16. Jaromír Baxa & Michal Paulus, 2024. "Exchange rate misalignments, growth, and institutions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1705-1799, October.
    17. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 79-100.
    18. Rishan Adha & Cheng-Yih Hong & Somya Agrawal & Li-Hua Li, 2023. "ICT, carbon emissions, climate change, and energy demand nexus: The potential benefit of digitalization in Taiwan," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(5), pages 1619-1638, August.
    19. Beine, Michel & Cosma, Antonio & Vermeulen, Robert, 2010. "The dark side of global integration: Increasing tail dependence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 184-192, January.
    20. Evans, Olaniyi & Mesagan, Ekundayo Peter, 2022. "ICT-trade and pollution in Africa: Do governance and regulation matter?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 511-531.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19 pandemic; tourism; GDP per capita; real outputs; employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • Z32 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Tourism and Development
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2022:i:2:p:65-82. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.