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The electricity consumption versus economic growth of the Polish economy

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  • Gurgul, Henryk
  • Lach, Łukasz

Abstract

The aim of this contribution is an investigation of causal interdependences between electricity consumption and GDP in Poland. Our research was conducted for total electricity consumption as well as for the industrial consumption of electricity. In order to reflect the causality between GDP and electricity consumption properly we performed our investigations in a three–dimensional framework with employment chosen as an additional variable. We used reliable quarterly data from the period Q1 2000 – Q4 2009. In order to check the stability of the causalities the investigations were performed on two samples: a full sample and a pre–crisis (i.e. Q1 2000 – Q3 2008) subsample. We applied both traditional methods as well as some recently developed econometric tools. We found feedback between total electricity consumption and GDP as well as between total electricity consumption and employment. We also found unidirectional causality running from industrial electricity consumption to employment and no direct causal links between industrial electricity consumption and GDP. In addition, all these findings were, in general, not seriously affected by the financial and economic crisis of 2008. A significant exception is the causal effect of industrial electricity consumption on employment, which was more pronounced after the crisis of 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2012. "The electricity consumption versus economic growth of the Polish economy," MPRA Paper 52233, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52233
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    Keywords

    electricity consumption; economic growth; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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