IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v126y2018icp254-269.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An advanced approach for optimal wind power generation prediction intervals by using self-adaptive evolutionary extreme learning machine

Author

Listed:
  • Mahmoud, Tawfek
  • Dong, Z.Y.
  • Ma, Jin

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel and hybrid intelligent algorithms to directly modelling prediction intervals (PIs), as an accurate, optimum, reliable and high efficient wind power generation prediction intervals (PIs) are developed by using extreme learning machines (ELM) and self-adaptive evolutionary extreme learning machines (SAEELM). Given significant of uncertainties existed in the wind power generation, SAEELM is the state-of-the-art technology to estimate and quantify the potential uncertainties that may result in risk facing the power system planning, economical operation, and control. In SAEELM, a single hidden layer extreme learning machine is constructed, where the output weight matrix is optimised by using the self-adaptive differential evolution (DE) optimisation method. Also, selecting and adjusting the control parameters and generation strategies involved in differential evolution algorithm to minimises the developed objective cost function. Different case studies using Australian real wind farms have been conducted and analysed. By comparing the statistical analysis and results to other models and methods, e.g. artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), and Bootstrap, therefore, the proposed approach is an efficient, accurate, robust, and reliable for dealing with uncertainties involved in the integrated power systems, and generation of high-quality PIs. Moreover, the proposed SAEELM based algorithm has a better generalisation than other methods and has a high potential for practical applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahmoud, Tawfek & Dong, Z.Y. & Ma, Jin, 2018. "An advanced approach for optimal wind power generation prediction intervals by using self-adaptive evolutionary extreme learning machine," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 254-269.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:126:y:2018:i:c:p:254-269
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2018.03.035
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148118303410
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2018.03.035?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shrivastava, Nitin Anand & Lohia, Kunal & Panigrahi, Bijaya Ketan, 2016. "A multiobjective framework for wind speed prediction interval forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(P2), pages 903-910.
    2. Heinermann, Justin & Kramer, Oliver, 2016. "Machine learning ensembles for wind power prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 671-679.
    3. Chang, G.W. & Lu, H.J. & Chang, Y.R. & Lee, Y.D., 2017. "An improved neural network-based approach for short-term wind speed and power forecast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 301-311.
    4. Liu, Jinqiang & Wang, Xiaoru & Lu, Yun, 2017. "A novel hybrid methodology for short-term wind power forecasting based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 620-629.
    5. Barthelmie, R.J. & Murray, F. & Pryor, S.C., 2008. "The economic benefit of short-term forecasting for wind energy in the UK electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1687-1696, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zheng, Xidong & Bai, Feifei & Zeng, Ziyang & Jin, Tao, 2024. "A new methodology to improve wind power prediction accuracy considering power quality disturbance dimension reduction and elimination," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    2. Hu, Yahui & Guo, Yingshi & Fu, Rui, 2023. "A novel wind speed forecasting combined model using variational mode decomposition, sparse auto-encoder and optimized fuzzy cognitive mapping network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    3. Peng Qian & Xiange Tian & Jamil Kanfoud & Joash Lap Yan Lee & Tat-Hean Gan, 2019. "A Novel Condition Monitoring Method of Wind Turbines Based on Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-15, September.
    4. Jin, Huaiping & Shi, Lixian & Chen, Xiangguang & Qian, Bin & Yang, Biao & Jin, Huaikang, 2021. "Probabilistic wind power forecasting using selective ensemble of finite mixture Gaussian process regression models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1-18.
    5. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    6. Jong-Hyun Kim & Se-Hwan Park & Sang-Jun Park & Byeong-Ju Yun & You-Sik Hong, 2023. "Wind Turbine Fire Prevention System Using Fuzzy Rules and WEKA Data Mining Cluster Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-20, July.
    7. Jiménez, Alfredo Arcos & García Márquez, Fausto Pedro & Moraleda, Victoria Borja & Gómez Muñoz, Carlos Quiterio, 2019. "Linear and nonlinear features and machine learning for wind turbine blade ice detection and diagnosis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1034-1048.
    8. Iddio, E. & Wang, L. & Thomas, Y. & McMorrow, G. & Denzer, A., 2020. "Energy efficient operation and modeling for greenhouses: A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    9. Miltiadis D. Lytras & Kwok Tai Chui, 2019. "The Recent Development of Artificial Intelligence for Smart and Sustainable Energy Systems and Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-7, August.
    10. Fang Liu & Ranran Li & Aliona Dreglea, 2019. "Wind Speed and Power Ultra Short-Term Robust Forecasting Based on Takagi–Sugeno Fuzzy Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-16, September.
    11. González-Sopeña, J.M. & Pakrashi, V. & Ghosh, B., 2021. "An overview of performance evaluation metrics for short-term statistical wind power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Cocco Mariani, Viviana & Hennings Och, Stephan & dos Santos Coelho, Leandro & Domingues, Eric, 2019. "Pressure prediction of a spark ignition single cylinder engine using optimized extreme learning machine models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C), pages 204-221.
    13. Lv, Jiaqing & Zheng, Xiaodong & Pawlak, Mirosław & Mo, Weike & Miśkowicz, Marek, 2021. "Very short-term probabilistic wind power prediction using sparse machine learning and nonparametric density estimation algorithms," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 181-192.
    14. Abou Houran, Mohamad & Salman Bukhari, Syed M. & Zafar, Muhammad Hamza & Mansoor, Majad & Chen, Wenjie, 2023. "COA-CNN-LSTM: Coati optimization algorithm-based hybrid deep learning model for PV/wind power forecasting in smart grid applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).
    15. Asif Afzal & Saad Alshahrani & Abdulrahman Alrobaian & Abdulrajak Buradi & Sher Afghan Khan, 2021. "Power Plant Energy Predictions Based on Thermal Factors Using Ridge and Support Vector Regressor Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-22, November.
    16. Fan, Huijing & Zhen, Zhao & Liu, Nian & Sun, Yiqian & Chang, Xiqiang & Li, Yu & Wang, Fei & Mi, Zengqiang, 2023. "Fluctuation pattern recognition based ultra-short-term wind power probabilistic forecasting method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. González-Sopeña, J.M. & Pakrashi, V. & Ghosh, B., 2021. "An overview of performance evaluation metrics for short-term statistical wind power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    2. Liu, Xiaolei & Lin, Zi & Feng, Ziming, 2021. "Short-term offshore wind speed forecast by seasonal ARIMA - A comparison against GRU and LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    3. Jha, Sunil Kr. & Bilalovic, Jasmin & Jha, Anju & Patel, Nilesh & Zhang, Han, 2017. "Renewable energy: Present research and future scope of Artificial Intelligence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 297-317.
    4. Jafarzadeh Ghoushchi, Saeid & Manjili, Sobhan & Mardani, Abbas & Saraji, Mahyar Kamali, 2021. "An extended new approach for forecasting short-term wind power using modified fuzzy wavelet neural network: A case study in wind power plant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    5. Johann Baumgartner & Katharina Gruber & Sofia G. Simoes & Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan & Johannes Schmidt, 2020. "Less Information, Similar Performance: Comparing Machine Learning-Based Time Series of Wind Power Generation to Renewables.ninja," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-23, May.
    6. Jujie Wang & Yanfeng Wang & Yaning Li, 2018. "A Novel Hybrid Strategy Using Three-Phase Feature Extraction and a Weighted Regularized Extreme Learning Machine for Multi-Step Ahead Wind Speed Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-33, February.
    7. Kim, Deockho & Hur, Jin, 2018. "Short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind energy resources using the enhanced ensemble method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 211-226.
    8. Wang, Yun & Xu, Houhua & Zou, Runmin & Zhang, Lingjun & Zhang, Fan, 2022. "A deep asymmetric Laplace neural network for deterministic and probabilistic wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 497-517.
    9. Marugán, Alberto Pliego & Márquez, Fausto Pedro García & Perez, Jesus María Pinar & Ruiz-Hernández, Diego, 2018. "A survey of artificial neural network in wind energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1822-1836.
    10. Lin, Qingcheng & Cai, Huiling & Liu, Hanwei & Li, Xuefeng & Xiao, Hui, 2024. "A novel ultra-short-term wind power prediction model jointly driven by multiple algorithm optimization and adaptive selection," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    11. Han, Li & Jing, Huitian & Zhang, Rongchang & Gao, Zhiyu, 2019. "Wind power forecast based on improved Long Short Term Memory network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    12. López, Germánico & Arboleya, Pablo, 2022. "Short-term wind speed forecasting over complex terrain using linear regression models and multivariable LSTM and NARX networks in the Andes Mountains, Ecuador," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 351-368.
    13. Chitsazan, Mohammad Amin & Sami Fadali, M. & Trzynadlowski, Andrzej M., 2019. "Wind speed and wind direction forecasting using echo state network with nonlinear functions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 879-889.
    14. Liang, Tao & Zhao, Qing & Lv, Qingzhao & Sun, Hexu, 2021. "A novel wind speed prediction strategy based on Bi-LSTM, MOOFADA and transfer learning for centralized control centers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    15. Mojtaba Qolipour & Ali Mostafaeipour & Mohammad Saidi-Mehrabad & Hamid R Arabnia, 2019. "Prediction of wind speed using a new Grey-extreme learning machine hybrid algorithm: A case study," Energy & Environment, , vol. 30(1), pages 44-62, February.
    16. Rana Muhammad Adnan & Zhongmin Liang & Xiaohui Yuan & Ozgur Kisi & Muhammad Akhlaq & Binquan Li, 2019. "Comparison of LSSVR, M5RT, NF-GP, and NF-SC Models for Predictions of Hourly Wind Speed and Wind Power Based on Cross-Validation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, January.
    17. Erik Heilmann & Janosch Henze & Heike Wetzel, 2021. "Machine learning in energy forecasts with an application to high frequency electricity consumption data," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202135, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    18. Hannah Jessie Rani R. & Aruldoss Albert Victoire T., 2018. "Training radial basis function networks for wind speed prediction using PSO enhanced differential search optimizer," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-35, May.
    19. Costa, Marcelo Azevedo & Ruiz-Cárdenas, Ramiro & Mineti, Leandro Brioschi & Prates, Marcos Oliveira, 2021. "Dynamic time scan forecasting for multi-step wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 584-595.
    20. Mostafa A. Rushdi & Ahmad A. Rushdi & Tarek N. Dief & Amr M. Halawa & Shigeo Yoshida & Roland Schmehl, 2020. "Power Prediction of Airborne Wind Energy Systems Using Multivariate Machine Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-23, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:126:y:2018:i:c:p:254-269. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.