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Is ALARP applicable to the management of terrorist risks?

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  • Guikema, S.D.
  • Aven, T.

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss the applicability of the as low as reasonable practicable (ALARP) principle to terrorist risk management. ALARP is a commonly used framework for managing risk due to non-intelligent threats, but terrorism introduces difficult issues, both technically and socially. In particular, the probability of a terrorist attack is difficult to define, terrorist threats are adaptive, and some terrorist risk management actions raise issues of loss of civil liberties not raised by risk management measures for other types of risk. We discuss these issues and their implications for risk management. After showing how ALARP is used to manage the risk from other hazards in different economic sectors, we discuss both the benefits and difficulties associated with extending the ALARP framework for terrorist risk analysis. We conclude that the ALARP framework can be modified to make it appropriate for risk management for adaptive risks, provided that care is taken to explicitly consider adaptive reallocation of risk in response to risk management actions, to account for perceived or actual loss of civil liberties resulting from risk management actions, and to consider the difficulties associated with using probability to measure uncertainty in adversary actions.

Suggested Citation

  • Guikema, S.D. & Aven, T., 2010. "Is ALARP applicable to the management of terrorist risks?," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(8), pages 823-827.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:95:y:2010:i:8:p:823-827
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2010.03.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Darren W. Davis & Brian D. Silver, 2004. "Civil Liberties vs. Security: Public Opinion in the Context of the Terrorist Attacks on America," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(1), pages 28-46, January.
    2. Aven, Terje, 2008. "A semi-quantitative approach to risk analysis, as an alternative to QRAs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(6), pages 790-797.
    3. Insua, Insua Rios & Rios, Jesus & Banks, David, 2009. "Adversarial Risk Analysis," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(486), pages 841-854.
    4. Viscusi, W Kip & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 2003. "Sacrificing Civil Liberties to Reduce Terrorism Risks," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 99-120, March-May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Langdalen, Henrik & Abrahamsen, Eirik Bjorheim & Selvik, Jon Tømmerås, 2020. "On the importance of systems thinking when using the ALARP principle for risk management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    2. Terje Aven, 2013. "On How to Deal with Deep Uncertainties in a Risk Assessment and Management Context," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(12), pages 2082-2091, December.
    3. Wu, Zhongqun & Yang, Chan & Zheng, Ruijin, 2022. "Developing a holistic fuzzy hierarchy-cloud assessment model for the connection risk of renewable energy microgrid," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).

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