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Some reflections on uncertainty analysis and management

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  • Aven, Terje

Abstract

A guide to quantitative uncertainty analysis and management in industry has recently been issued. The guide provides an overall framework for uncertainty modelling and characterisations, using probabilities but also other uncertainty representations (including the Dempster–Shafer theory). A number of practical applications showing how to use the framework are presented. The guide is considered as an important contribution to the field, but there is a potential for improvements. These relate mainly to the scientific basis and clarification of critical issues, for example, concerning the meaning of a probability and the concept of model uncertainty. A reformulation of the framework is suggested using probabilities as the only representation of uncertainty. Several simple examples are included to motivate and explain the basic ideas of the modified framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Aven, Terje, 2010. "Some reflections on uncertainty analysis and management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 195-201.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:95:y:2010:i:3:p:195-201
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2009.09.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Terje Aven & Ortwin Renn, 2009. "On risk defined as an event where the outcome is uncertain," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, January.
    2. Aven, Terje, 2007. "A unified framework for risk and vulnerability analysis covering both safety and security," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(6), pages 745-754.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Aven, Terje, 2011. "Selective critique of risk assessments with recommendations for improving methodology and practise," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(5), pages 509-514.
    3. Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas & Saad S. H. Al‐Jibouri & Johannes I. M. Halman & Wim van de Linde & Frank Kaalberg, 2014. "Using Prior Risk‐Related Knowledge to Support Risk Management Decisions: Lessons Learnt from a Tunneling Project," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(10), pages 1923-1943, October.
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    8. T. R. Wang & N. Pedroni & E. Zio & V. Mousseau, 2020. "Identification of Protective Actions to Reduce the Vulnerability of Safety‐Critical Systems to Malevolent Intentional Acts: An Optimization‐Based Decision‐Making Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(3), pages 565-587, March.
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    13. Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas & Saad S.H. Al‐Jibouri & Johannes I.M. Halman & Frits A. van Tol, 2014. "Modeling Risk‐Related Knowledge in Tunneling Projects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 323-339, February.
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