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The concept of ignorance in a risk assessment and risk management context

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  • Aven, T.
  • Steen, R.

Abstract

There are many definitions of ignorance in the context of risk assessment and risk management. Most refer to situations in which there are lack of knowledge, poor basis for probability assignments and possible outcomes not (fully) known. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the ignorance concept in this setting. Based on a set of risk and uncertainty features, we establish conceptual structures characterising the level of ignorance. These features include the definition of chances (relative frequency-interpreted probabilities) and the existence of scientific uncertainties. Based on these structures, we suggest a definition of ignorance linked to scientific uncertainties, i.e. the lack of understanding of how consequences of the activity are influenced by the underlying factors. In this way, ignorance can be viewed as a condition for applying the precautionary principle. The discussion is also linked to the use and boundaries of risk assessments in the case of large uncertainties, and the methods for classifying risk and uncertainty problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Aven, T. & Steen, R., 2010. "The concept of ignorance in a risk assessment and risk management context," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1117-1122.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:95:y:2010:i:11:p:1117-1122
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2010.05.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dubois, Didier, 2006. "Possibility theory and statistical reasoning," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 47-69, November.
    2. Herb Thompson, 1997. "Ignorance and Ideological Hegemony: A Critique of Neoclassical Economics," Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, , vol. 8(4), pages 291-305, October.
    3. Aven, Terje, 2010. "On how to define, understand and describe risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(6), pages 623-631.
    4. Terje Aven & Ortwin Renn, 2009. "On risk defined as an event where the outcome is uncertain," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, January.
    5. Aven, Terje, 2010. "Some reflections on uncertainty analysis and management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 195-201.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Nicola Pedroni & Enrico Zio & Alberto Pasanisi & Mathieu Couplet, 2017. "A critical discussion and practical recommendations on some issues relevant to the non-probabilistic treatment of uncertainty in engineering risk assessment," Post-Print hal-01652230, HAL.
    3. Garcez, Thalles Vitelli & de Almeida, Adiel Teixeira, 2014. "A risk measurement tool for an underground electricity distribution system considering the consequences and uncertainties of manhole events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 68-80.
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    5. Nicola Pedroni & Enrico Zio & Alberto Pasanisi & Mathieu Couplet, 2017. "A Critical Discussion and Practical Recommendations on Some Issues Relevant to the Nonprobabilistic Treatment of Uncertainty in Engineering Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1315-1340, July.

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