IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v253y2025ics0951832024006501.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Research on scenario extrapolation and emergency decision-making for fire and explosion accidents at university laboratories based on BN-CBR

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Jie
  • Cai, Fei
  • Wang, Wanqing
  • Zhu, Haoyuan
  • Teng, Liangyun
  • Luo, Xuehua
  • Chen, Yi
  • Hao, Chenwei

Abstract

To solve the problems of suddenness, uncertainty and untimely emergency decision-making related to fire and explosion accidents in university laboratories, a combined method of BN and CBR is introduced to analyze laboratory accidents. By summarizing the characteristics of 72 accident cases worldwide, four scenario elements with key roles are extracted by combining the public safety triangle theoretical model; a BN is established from the macro perspective, which is based on the construction of dynamic scenarios; the evolution path is analyzed via BN theory; and the probability of occurrence of accidents is quantified from the microscopic perspective, with a focus on the analysis of the accidental evolution process. A case similarity calculation is carried out via CBR, and the construction of a BN-CBR-assisted decision-making model is completed, verified and corrected in an case study. The results show that the BN-CBR model can quickly determine the accident evolution path and the most similar historical cases, and its quantitative probability calculation enables one to comprehensively grasp the real-time state of the whole accident and the emergency response in a timely manner, which provides a new way to approach emergency decision-making of accidents.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Jie & Cai, Fei & Wang, Wanqing & Zhu, Haoyuan & Teng, Liangyun & Luo, Xuehua & Chen, Yi & Hao, Chenwei, 2025. "Research on scenario extrapolation and emergency decision-making for fire and explosion accidents at university laboratories based on BN-CBR," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:253:y:2025:i:c:s0951832024006501
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110579
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832024006501
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2024.110579?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yang, Zhen & Dong, Xiaobin & Guo, Li, 2023. "Scenario inference model of urban metro system cascading failure under extreme rainfall conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    2. Chen, Xiyuan & Ma, Xiaoping & Jia, Limin & Zhang, Zhipeng & Chen, Fei & Wang, Ruojin, 2024. "Causative analysis of freight railway accident in specific scenes using a data-driven Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    3. Guo, Jian & Ma, Kaijiang, 2024. "Risk analysis for hazardous chemical vehicle-bridge transportation system: A dynamic Bayesian network model incorporating vehicle dynamics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    4. Ricci, Federica & Yang, Ming & Reniers, Genserik & Cozzani, Valerio, 2024. "Emergency response in cascading scenarios triggered by natural events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    5. She, Jianjun & Guo, Zihao & Li, Zhijian & Liang, Shuwei & Zhou, Yilun, 2024. "Research on scenario deduction and emergency decision-making evaluation for construction safety accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    6. Liu, Wenli & Shao, Yixiao & Li, Chen & Li, Chengqian & Jiang, Zehao, 2023. "Development of a non-Gaussian copula Bayesian network for safety assessment of metro tunnel maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    7. Yang, Guan ding & Liu, Jie & Wang, Wan qing & Zhou, Hao wen & Wang, Xiao dong & Lu, Feng & Wan, Li ting & Teng, Liang yun & Zhao, Huyun, 2023. "Integration of the BBN-NK-Boltzmann model of tunnel fire network scenarios with coupled forward and reverse rendition analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    8. Uflaz, Esma & Sezer, Sukru Ilke & Tunçel, Ahmet Lutfi & Aydin, Muhammet & Akyuz, Emre & Arslan, Ozcan, 2024. "Quantifying potential cyber-attack risks in maritime transportation under Dempster–Shafer theory FMECA and rule-based Bayesian network modelling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    9. Zhang, Jinfeng & Jin, Mei & Wan, Chengpeng & Dong, Zhijie & Wu, Xiaohong, 2024. "A Bayesian network-based model for risk modeling and scenario deduction of collision accidents of inland intelligent ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meng, Huixing & Hu, Mengqian & Kong, Ziyan & Niu, Yiming & Liang, Jiali & Nie, Zhenyu & Xing, Jinduo, 2024. "Risk analysis of lithium-ion battery accidents based on physics-informed data-driven Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    2. Liu, Qi & Sun, Ke & Liu, Wenqi & Li, Yufeng & Zheng, Xiangyu & Cao, Chenhong & Li, Jiangtao & Qin, Wutao, 2025. "Quantitative risk assessment for connected automated Vehicles: Integrating improved STPA-SafeSec and Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    3. Chen, Yun & Wang, Jie & Jin, Lianghai & Nie, Benwu & Zheng, Xiazhong, 2024. "A hybrid approach integrating case mining (CM) and the Copula Bayesian Network (CBN) for accident causation probabilistic reasoning of building construction collapses," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    4. Fan, Hanwen & Jia, Haiying & He, Xuzhuo & Lyu, Jing, 2024. "Navigating uncertainty: A dynamic Bayesian network-based risk assessment framework for maritime trade routes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    5. Huo, Xiaosen & Yin, Yuan & Jiao, Liudan & Zhang, Yu, 2024. "A data-driven and knowledge graph-based analysis of the risk hazard coupling mechanism in subway construction accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    6. Barati, Hojjat & Yazici, Anil & Almotahari, Amirmasoud, 2024. "A methodology for ranking of critical links in transportation networks based on criticality score distributions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    7. Zhang, Yushuai & Ren, Wangjun & Feng, Jinji & Zhao, Jian & Chen, Yicun & Mi, Yongtao, 2024. "A cascading failure propagation model for a network with a node emergency recovery function," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 371(C).
    8. Li, Huanhuan & Çelik, Cihad & Bashir, Musa & Zou, Lu & Yang, Zaili, 2024. "Incorporation of a global perspective into data-driven analysis of maritime collision accident risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    9. Ma, Weikai & Wang, Yanfu & Xing, Peijie & Yang, Ming, 2025. "A Monte Carlo-based modeling method for the spatial-temporal evolution process of multi-hazard and higher-order domino effect," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    10. Jiang, Hongrui & Ding, Long & Ji, Jie & Zhu, Jiping, 2024. "Building reliability of risk assessment of domino effects in chemical tank farm through an improved uncertainty analysis method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    11. She, Jianjun & Guo, Zihao & Li, Zhijian & Liang, Shuwei & Zhou, Yilun, 2024. "Research on scenario deduction and emergency decision-making evaluation for construction safety accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    12. Teng, Da & Feng, Yun-Wen & Lu, Cheng & Liu, Jia-Qi & Chen, Jun-Yu, 2024. "Vectorial generative adversarial surrogate modeling reliability evaluation framework for engineering structural systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    13. Wang, Yifei & Xie, Mingjiang & Su, Chun, 2024. "Multi-objective maintenance strategy for corroded pipelines considering the correlation of different failure modes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    14. Liang, Huangbin & Xie, Qiang, 2025. "Probabilistic seismic risk analysis of electrical substations considering equipment-to-equipment seismic failure correlations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    15. Liu, Jintao & Chen, Keyi & Duan, Huayu & Li, Chenling, 2024. "A knowledge graph-based hazard prediction approach for preventing railway operational accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    16. Sun, Bin & Li, Yan & Zhang, Yangyang & Guo, Tong, 2024. "Multi-source heterogeneous data fusion prediction technique for the utility tunnel fire detection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    17. Qiao, Yajing & Wang, Shaoping & Shi, Jian & Liu, Di & Tao, Mo, 2024. "Reliability model based on fault energy dissipation for mechatronic system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    18. Yangyang Meng, 2024. "Vulnerability Comparisons of Various Complex Urban Metro Networks Under Multiple Failure Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-19, November.
    19. Jing, Qi & Li, Tong & Lai, Yuying & Wang, Yumeng & Li, Yuntao & Qi, Sheng, 2024. "Study on risk assessment models for the aggregation of vehicles transporting hazardous chemicals," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    20. Yang, Zhisen & Yu, Qing & Yang, Zaili & Wan, Chengpeng, 2024. "A data-driven Bayesian model for evaluating the duration of detention of ships in PSC inspections," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:253:y:2025:i:c:s0951832024006501. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.