IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v253y2025ics0951832024006367.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic risk assessment for process operational safety based on reachability analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Yuchen
  • Ji, Zuzhen
  • Cao, Yi
  • Yang, Shuang-Hua

Abstract

The successful implementation of chemical production systems necessitates an effective mechanism for quantitatively assessing dynamic risk. Current methods predominantly evaluate the entire industrial process – from basic operations to the safety protection layer – and typically focus on the impact of fixed deviations in process parameters on the development of abnormal conditions. However, the cumulative impact of process disturbances on dynamic risk deserves attention, particularly in the context of abnormal operating conditions. To overcome the limitations of existing methodologies, this paper introduces a suite of novel dynamic operational risk indices based on reachability analysis, encapsulated within a comprehensive framework that includes identifying safety critical variables and quantifying uncertainties in set-form. The efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated through applications to a tank system and a Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR) system. This approach has the potential to enhance industry understanding of failure mechanisms and to foster the development of preventative and mitigative strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Yuchen & Ji, Zuzhen & Cao, Yi & Yang, Shuang-Hua, 2025. "Dynamic risk assessment for process operational safety based on reachability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:253:y:2025:i:c:s0951832024006367
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110564
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832024006367
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2024.110564?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hu, Yunwei & Parhizkar, Tarannom & Mosleh, Ali, 2022. "Guided simulation for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of complex systems: Concept, method, and application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    2. Maidana, Renan G. & Parhizkar, Tarannom & Gomola, Alojz & Utne, Ingrid B. & Mosleh, Ali, 2023. "Supervised dynamic probabilistic risk assessment: Review and comparison of methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    3. Khakzad, Nima & Khan, Faisal & Amyotte, Paul, 2012. "Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 36-44.
    4. Park, Jong Woo & Lee, Seung Jun, 2022. "Simulation optimization framework for dynamic probabilistic safety assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    5. Wang, Chenyushu & Cai, Baoping & Shao, Xiaoyan & Zhao, Liqian & Sui, Zhongfei & Liu, Keyang & Khan, Javed Akbar & Gao, Lei, 2023. "Dynamic risk assessment methodology of operation process for deepwater oil and gas equipment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    6. Yang, Xiaole & Sam Mannan, M., 2010. "The development and application of dynamic operational risk assessment in oil/gas and chemical process industry," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 806-815.
    7. Raoni, Rafael & Secchi, Argimiro R., 2019. "Procedures to model and solve probabilistic dynamic system problems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Amin, Md. Tanjin & Khan, Faisal & Imtiaz, Syed, 2018. "Dynamic availability assessment of safety critical systems using a dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 108-117.
    9. Alsulieman, Abdullah & Ge, Xihe & Zeng, Zhiguo & Butenko, Sergiy & Khan, Faisal & El-Halwagi, Mahmoud, 2024. "Dynamic risk analysis of evolving scenarios in oil and gas separator," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    10. He, Rui & Zhu, Jingyu & Chen, Guoming & Tian, Zhigang, 2022. "A real-time probabilistic risk assessment method for the petrochemical industry based on data monitoring," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alsulieman, Abdullah & Ge, Xihe & Zeng, Zhiguo & Butenko, Sergiy & Khan, Faisal & El-Halwagi, Mahmoud, 2024. "Dynamic risk analysis of evolving scenarios in oil and gas separator," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    2. Park, Jinkyun & Kim, Hyeonmin, 2024. "A case study to address the limitation of accident scenario identifications with respect to diverse manual responses," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    3. Li, Weijun & Sun, Qiqi & Zhang, Jiwang & Zhang, Laibin, 2024. "Quantitative risk assessment of industrial hot work using Adaptive Bow Tie and Petri Nets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    4. Lilli, Giordano & Sanavia, Matteo & Oboe, Roberto & Vianello, Chiara & Manzolaro, Mattia & De Ruvo, Pasquale Luca & Andrighetto, Alberto, 2024. "A semi-quantitative risk assessment of remote handling operations on the SPES Front-End based on HAZOP-LOPA," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    5. Maidana, Renan G. & Parhizkar, Tarannom & Gomola, Alojz & Utne, Ingrid B. & Mosleh, Ali, 2023. "Supervised dynamic probabilistic risk assessment: Review and comparison of methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    6. Wang, Chenyushu & Cai, Baoping & Shao, Xiaoyan & Zhao, Liqian & Sui, Zhongfei & Liu, Keyang & Khan, Javed Akbar & Gao, Lei, 2023. "Dynamic risk assessment methodology of operation process for deepwater oil and gas equipment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    7. Lewis, Austin D. & Groth, Katrina M., 2023. "A comparison of DBN model performance in SIPPRA health monitoring based on different data stream discretization methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    8. Maidana, Renan G. & Parhizkar, Tarannom & Martin, Gabriel San & Utne, Ingrid B., 2024. "Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with K-shortest-paths planning for generating discrete dynamic event trees," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    9. Antonello, Federico & Buongiorno, Jacopo & Zio, Enrico, 2022. "A methodology to perform dynamic risk assessment using system theory and modeling and simulation: Application to nuclear batteries," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    10. Hai, Nan & Gong, Daqing & Dai, Zixuan, 2024. "Target spectrum-based risk analysis model for utility tunnel O&M in multiple scenarios and its application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    11. Liu, Qi & Sun, Ke & Liu, Wenqi & Li, Yufeng & Zheng, Xiangyu & Cao, Chenhong & Li, Jiangtao & Qin, Wutao, 2025. "Quantitative risk assessment for connected automated Vehicles: Integrating improved STPA-SafeSec and Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    12. Liu, Aihua & Chen, Ke & Huang, Xiaofei & Li, Didi & Zhang, Xiaochun, 2021. "Dynamic risk assessment model of buried gas pipelines based on system dynamics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    13. Li, Jin-Yang & Lu, Jubin & Zhou, Hao, 2023. "Reliability analysis of structures with inerter-based isolation layer under stochastic seismic excitations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    14. Li, Mei & Liu, Zixian & Li, Xiaopeng & Liu, Yiliu, 2019. "Dynamic risk assessment in healthcare based on Bayesian approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 327-334.
    15. Bhardwaj, U. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Casualty analysis methodology and taxonomy for FPSO accident analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    16. Jing, Qi & Yu, Lin & Lan, Fengyi & Li, Yuntao, 2024. "Quantitative assessment rules and models for dynamic disaster risk in high-density gas gathering stations: Practical application in a largest CBM gathering station," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    17. He, Rui & Zhu, Jingyu & Chen, Guoming & Tian, Zhigang, 2022. "A real-time probabilistic risk assessment method for the petrochemical industry based on data monitoring," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    18. Zio, E., 2018. "The future of risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 176-190.
    19. Adumene, Sidum & Khan, Faisal & Adedigba, Sunday & Zendehboudi, Sohrab & Shiri, Hodjat, 2021. "Dynamic risk analysis of marine and offshore systems suffering microbial induced stochastic degradation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    20. Zhou, Jianxiong & Wei, Shanbi & Chai, Yi, 2021. "Using improved dynamic Bayesian networks in reliability evaluation for flexible test system of aerospace pyromechanical device products," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:253:y:2025:i:c:s0951832024006367. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.