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Risk analysis of tripping accidents of power grid caused by typical natural hazards based on FTA-BN model

Author

Listed:
  • Haifeng Bian

    (State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd.)

  • Jun Zhang

    (State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd.)

  • Ruixue Li

    (China University of Mining and Technology)

  • Huanhuan Zhao

    (China University of Mining and Technology)

  • Xuexue Wang

    (China University of Mining and Technology)

  • Yiping Bai

    (China University of Mining and Technology)

Abstract

As the scale of the power grid becomes larger, the requirements for transmission reliability are getting higher. Due to the large geographical span and the harsh environment of the power transmission line, it has become the most severely affected equipment of the power grid by natural factors. However, the quantitative assessment of transmission line tripping accidents caused by multiple natural hazards has rarely been investigated. In this study, a risk analysis method to probabilistically analyze the tripping accidents of power transmission lines caused by wildfire, lightning, strong wind and ice storm was proposed. The analysis process consists of comprehensively identifying the risk of tripping accidents based on fault tree analysis and dynamically performing the predictive analysis of tripping accident evolution process in transmission line from causes to consequences based on Bayesian network. Critical risk evolution paths corresponding to four natural hazards are determined through a 72-node BN. The source risks of the four critical risk evolution paths are artificial ignition source from the wildfire path, aging from the lightning path, thoughtless of surrounding environment from the strong wind path and wind effect from the ice storm path. The countermeasures of tripping accidents are derived through the source risks and synergy between risks in three scenario analysis. This study is expected to examine the key challenges of risk management in power grid tripping accidents, which provides technical supports for accident preventing, handling and recovering of tripping accidents of the power transmission line according to “scenario–response”-based hazard response strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Haifeng Bian & Jun Zhang & Ruixue Li & Huanhuan Zhao & Xuexue Wang & Yiping Bai, 2021. "Risk analysis of tripping accidents of power grid caused by typical natural hazards based on FTA-BN model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 1771-1795, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:106:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04510-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04510-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Chen, Guohua & Li, Geliang & Xie, Mulin & Xu, Qiming & Zhang, Geng, 2024. "A probabilistic analysis method based on Noisy-OR gate Bayesian network for hydrogen leakage of proton exchange membrane fuel cell," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    3. Yanyan Liu & Keping Li & Dongyang Yan & Shuang Gu, 2023. "The prediction of disaster risk paths based on IECNN model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 163-188, May.

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