IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v252y2024ics0951832024005167.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A risk evaluation method for human-machine interaction in emergencies based on multiple mental models-driven situation assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Guo, Jianbin
  • Ma, Shuo
  • Zeng, Shengkui
  • Che, Haiyang
  • Pan, Xing

Abstract

In the process of human-machine interaction (HMI) under abnormal situations, situation assessment (SAS) is a critical component as incorrect SAS can feed into inappropriate actions and cause severe accidents. Therefore, it is essential to model SAS for HMI risk evaluation. During emergency situations, SAS is predominantly affected by time pressure. However, current researches focus on deliberative SAS with sufficient time and have limitations in quantifying the time pressure effect on SAS during emergencies. This paper proposes a risk evaluation method for HMI in emergencies by quantitatively modeling the time pressure effect on SAS under the recognition-primed decision (RPD) model framework. Firstly, SAS process is characterized as identifying the first plausible cause of an abnormal phenomenon driven by multiple Bayesian network-based mental models, and a simulation algorithm for SAS process is proposed to evaluate HMI risk. Secondly, two effects of time pressure on SAS activities, i.e., filtration effect on information perception and impair effect on knowledge retrieval, are quantified based on the Saliency-Effort-Expectancy-Value (SEEV) model and the Adaptive Control of Thought-Rational (ACT-R) theory. Finally, this method is applied to a Boeing 737-31S accident with high time pressure and results demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Jianbin & Ma, Shuo & Zeng, Shengkui & Che, Haiyang & Pan, Xing, 2024. "A risk evaluation method for human-machine interaction in emergencies based on multiple mental models-driven situation assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:252:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024005167
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110444
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832024005167
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2024.110444?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qiao, Yidan & Gao, Xinwei & Ma, Lin & Chen, Dengkai, 2024. "Dynamic human error risk assessment of group decision-making in extreme cooperative scenario," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    2. Mkrtchyan, L. & Podofillini, L. & Dang, V.N., 2015. "Bayesian belief networks for human reliability analysis: A review of applications and gaps," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-16.
    3. You, Qidong & Guo, Jianbin & Zeng, Shengkui & Che, Haiyang, 2024. "A dynamic Bayesian network based reliability assessment method for short-term multi-round situation awareness considering round dependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    4. Qiao, Yidan & Zhang, Xian & Wang, Hanyu & Chen, Dengkai, 2024. "Dynamic assessment method for human factor risk of manned deep submergence operation system based on SPAR-H and SD," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    5. Zhao, Yunfei & Smidts, Carol, 2021. "CMS-BN: A cognitive modeling and simulation environment for human performance assessment, part 2 — Application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    6. Wang, Hong & Chen, Ning & Wu, Bing & Guedes Soares, C., 2024. "Human and organizational factors analysis of collision accidents between merchant ships and fishing vessels based on HFACS-BN model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    7. Cheng, Tingting & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Wu, Bing & Wu, Qing, 2023. "A novel system-theoretic approach for human-system collaboration safety: Case studies on two degrees of autonomy for autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    8. Kim, Man Cheol & Seong, Poong Hyun, 2006. "An analytic model for situation assessment of nuclear power plant operators based on Bayesian inference," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 270-282.
    9. Wu, Bing & Yip, Tsz Leung & Yan, Xinping & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Review of techniques and challenges of human and organizational factors analysis in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    10. Lee, Hyun-Chul & Seong, Poong-Hyun, 2009. "A computational model for evaluating the effects of attention, memory, and mental models on situation assessment of nuclear power plant operators," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(11), pages 1796-1805.
    11. Wang, Zengkai & Zeng, Shengkui & Guo, Jianbin & Che, Haiyang, 2021. "A Bayesian network for reliability assessment of man-machine phased-mission system considering the phase dependencies of human cognitive error," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    12. Zhao, Yunfei & Smidts, Carol, 2021. "CMS-BN: A cognitive modeling and simulation environment for human performance assessment, part 1 — methodology," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. You, Qidong & Guo, Jianbin & Zeng, Shengkui & Che, Haiyang, 2024. "A dynamic Bayesian network based reliability assessment method for short-term multi-round situation awareness considering round dependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    2. Azarkhil, Mandana & Mosleh, Ali & Ramos, Marilia, 2025. "Team-centered IDAC: Modeling and simulation of operating crew in complex systems - Part 2: Simulation aspects and application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    3. Zhao, Yunfei, 2022. "A Bayesian approach to comparing human reliability analysis methods using human performance data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    4. Zhao, Yunfei & Smidts, Carol, 2021. "CMS-BN: A cognitive modeling and simulation environment for human performance assessment, part 1 — methodology," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    5. Podofillini, Luca & Reer, Bernhard & Dang, Vinh N., 2021. "Analysis of recent operational events involving inappropriate actions: influencing factors and root causes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    6. Liu, Jianqiao & Zou, Yanhua & Wang, Wei & Zio, Enrico & Yuan, Chengwei & Wang, Taorui & Jiang, Jianjun, 2022. "A Bayesian belief network framework for nuclear power plant human reliability analysis accounting for dependencies among performance shaping factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    7. Atashfeshan, Nooshin & Saidi-Mehrabad, Mohammad & Razavi, Hamideh, 2021. "A novel dynamic function allocation method in human-machine systems focusing on trigger mechanism and allocation strategy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    8. Abreu, Danilo T.M.P. & Maturana, Marcos C. & Droguett, Enrique Lopez & Martins, Marcelo R., 2022. "Human reliability analysis of conventional maritime pilotage operations supported by a prospective model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    9. Wang, Hong & Chen, Ning & Wu, Bing & Guedes Soares, C., 2024. "Human and organizational factors analysis of collision accidents between merchant ships and fishing vessels based on HFACS-BN model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    10. Patriarca, Riccardo & Ramos, Marilia & Paltrinieri, Nicola & Massaiu, Salvatore & Costantino, Francesco & Di Gravio, Giulio & Boring, Ronald Laurids, 2020. "Human reliability analysis: Exploring the intellectual structure of a research field," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    11. Hu, Lunhu & Pan, Xing & Kang, Rui & Chu, Jian & Gao, Yunfeng & Xue, Zhong & Baoyin, Hexi, 2024. "Dynamic risk assessment of Uncertain Random System considering operator's simple emergency-stop action in short time window," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    12. Qiao, Yidan & Gao, Xinwei & Ma, Lin & Chen, Dengkai, 2024. "Dynamic human error risk assessment of group decision-making in extreme cooperative scenario," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    13. Li, Xin & Chen, Chao & Hong, Yi-du & Yang, Fu-qiang, 2023. "Exploring hazardous chemical explosion accidents with association rules and Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    14. Fan, Shiqi & Yang, Zaili, 2024. "Accident data-driven human fatigue analysis in maritime transport using machine learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    15. Zhou, Jian-Lan & Yu, Ze-Tai & Xiao, Ren-Bin, 2022. "A large-scale group Success Likelihood Index Method to estimate human error probabilities in the railway driving process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    16. Mkrtchyan, L. & Podofillini, L. & Dang, V.N., 2015. "Bayesian belief networks for human reliability analysis: A review of applications and gaps," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-16.
    17. Podofillini, Luca & Reer, Bernhard & Dang, Vinh N., 2023. "A traceable process to develop Bayesian networks from scarce data and expert judgment: A human reliability analysis application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    18. Asadayoobi, N. & Taghipour, S. & Jaber, M.Y., 2022. "Predicting human reliability based on probabilistic mission completion time using Bayesian Network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    19. Wang, Zengkai & Zeng, Shengkui & Guo, Jianbin & Che, Haiyang, 2021. "A Bayesian network for reliability assessment of man-machine phased-mission system considering the phase dependencies of human cognitive error," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    20. Ekanem, Nsimah & Mosleh, Ali & Shen, Song-Hua & Ramos, Marilia, 2024. "Phoenix–A model-based human reliability analysis methodology: Data sources and quantitative analysis procedure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:252:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024005167. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.